State of Origin 2025 – Game two preview, predictions and tips
Game one recap
Queensland were lucky to avoid a bloodbath on home soil in game one, as they were flattered by their eventual 6-18 loss.
Nathan Cleary kicked NSW into a 0-2 lead early on, then three tries in 11 minutes from Blues wingers Zac Lomax (2) and Brian To’o gave them a comfortable 0-14 lead with five minutes of the first half still to play.
With none of the tries converted, the Maroons were still very much in the contest, and To’o’s sin-binning on the stroke of half-time looked like it would allow the home side back into the contest.
A Valentine Holmes penalty reduced the deficit, as the Maroons went in 2-14 down at the break.
With To’o spending most of the first 10 minutes of the second half in the bin, Queensland took advantage with a try through Xavier Coates to reduce the arrears to 6-14, but that was as good as it got for them.
The next score came on 72 minutes, when Dylan Edwards crossed for the Blues’ fourth try – none of which were converted, as NSW eased to a 12-point win.
Queensland squad for game two
Queensland coach Billy Slater has made one huge call, with Maroons stalwart and skipper Daly Cherry-Evans dropped from the squad. DCE became the oldest player in Origin history in game one, and it looks as though his Origin career is finished after 26 appearances for his state – 18 of them as captain.
Cameron Munster will take over as skipper, while Tom Dearden is the man called in to replace DCE at scrum-half. Dearden came off the bench in game one, and despite playing for his state on four occasions, this week will be his first start in the number seven jumper.
Beau Fermor has also been left out of the squad from game one, having made his debut in that match. Kurt Capewell has been recalled after being left out for game one, while 32-year-old Kurt Mann will make his Maroons debut off the bench.
Corey Horsburgh, Ezra Mam and Jack Howarth are all named in the extended squad.
Queensland players to watch
All eyes will be on Tom Dearden in game two. The 24-year-old scrum-half has been in superb form for the Cowboys this year and fully deserves his opportunity in the Maroons starting side. He’s got big boots to fill though, replacing one of Queensland’s all-time greats, Daly Cherry-Evans.
Cameron Munster is another who’ll be watched closely in this one. The 30-year-old Storm five-eighth will be making his 20th appearance for his state, but it’ll be his first as captain, with all the added pressure that brings. He was very quiet by his standards in game one, so a big performance is needed in this one.
New South Wales squad for game two
After an impressive win in game one, New South Wales coach Laurie Daley made just one enforced change to his initial squad, with Stefano Utoikamanu coming in for Mitch Barnett, who suffered a season-ending injury playing for the Warriors.
Since the squad announcement though, Mitchell Moses has had to drop out too, and it’s unlikley he’ll be back in time for game three either. Jarome Luai has been called straight into the starting side to line up alongside Nathan Cleary in the halves.
Jacob Preston has also joined the extended squad as a late replacement for Keaon Koloamatangi, who’s been ruled out with a facial fracture suffered while playing for the Rabbitohs in Round 15.
New South Wales players to watch
Jarome Luai will be expected to slot into the Blues side seamlessly in place of the unfortunate Mitchell Moses. The Tigers five-eighth should be fine though, having played most of his career alongside Nathan Cleary at the Panthers before his move to Wests. Luai also played all three games for the Blues last year in their 2-1 series victory.
Brian To’o made over 200 run metres in game one and scored a try, so the Maroons will need to do a better job of containing him this time around – if at all possible. The Panthers winger comes into this game carrying a bit of a knock, but he’ll almost certainly be good to go on gameday.
My prediction
Queensland 10-24 New South Wales
I backed the Maroons to pick up a home win in game one and was left with egg on my face, so I won’t be backing them here in Perth. If the Blues can play anything like they did in game one, then the result will be a formality, but Origin’s never that simple and I would expect a response from Queensland. Whatever response they come up with though, I still can’t see it being enough.
Betting tips
After their performance in game one, I have no doubt backing New South Wales with a -8 handicap, at 1/1.
It’s 10/3 for Zac Lomax to be either the first or second tryscorer, and I’m getting on that too.
In the Man of the Match market, Payne Haas would be my tip, at 8/1, and for a bit more of an outsider, Zac Lomax is a huge price at 22/1. Given that he scored eight of the Blues’ points in game one and may take over kicking duties should Nathan Cleary struggle again, he’s way too high at that price to dismiss.
One other bet I like the look of when it comes to value is in the ‘Will the first team to score win?’ market. Origin games often start off cagey, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Maroons open the scoring with a penalty if given the chance, In that case, the 7/4 on this market being ‘no’ looks well priced.
