NRL 2026 – Finals week one preview, predictions and tips
Here we are. Nine teams down, eight left, and two to head off after this weekend.
Personally, I think the sides in 5th to 8th are just making up the numbers, and if I had to pick the two Grand Finalists right now, I’d say the Panthers and Warriors without hesitation.
Strange things can happen at this time of year though. After all, the Raiders finished top last year and went out in straight sets, so anything’s possible.
Read below and feel free to let me know how badly I’ve got it wrong next week!
*All odds are taken from Paddy Power and correct at time of writing on 8th September 2026.
- Friday 11th September – South Sydney Rabbitohs (6th) vs Newcastle Knights (7th)
- Saturday 12th September – New Zealand Warriors (2nd) vs The Dolphins (3rd)
- Saturday 12th September – Cronulla Sharks (5th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (8th)
- Sunday 13th September – Penrith Panthers (1st) vs Sydney Roosters (4th)
Friday 11th September – South Sydney Rabbitohs (6th) vs Newcastle Knights (7th)
Form guide
The Rabbitohs finished the regular season with four wins from their final five games, including a 50-20 thumping of the Roosters in Round 27.
The Knights had a bye in Round 27, but they lost their two games before that, against Manly and the Warriors. They conceded 90 points across those two fixtures as well.
Team news
Rabbitohs team: 1. Matt Dufty 2. Alex Johnston 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Jack Wighton 5. Campbell Graham 6. Cody Walker 7. Jayden Sullivan 8. Junior Tatola 9. Brandon Smith 10. Keaon Koloamatangi 11. David Fifita 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Cameron Murray 14. Jye Gray 15. Lachlan Hubner 16. Sean Keppie 17. Jamie Humphreys 18. Adam Elliott 19. Latrell Siegwalt 20. Liam Le Blanc 21. Talanoa Penitani 22. Peter Mamouzelos
Knights team: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Sandon Smith 8. Tyson Frizell 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Cody Hopwood 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Francis Manuleleua 13. Mathew Croker 14. Harrison Graham 15. Lachlan Crouch 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Thomas Cant 18. Fletcher Hunt 19. Toby Winter 20. Kyle McCarthy 21. Elijah Leaumoana 22. Diesel Hagan
My prediction – South Sydney Rabbitohs 24-16 Newcastle Knights
Momentum’s massive at this time of year, and the Rabbitohs come into this game in strong form, whereas Newcastle have dropped off a little. The Knights have done brilliantly to get into the top eight, but I think their year will come to an end this weekend.
Betting tips
I’ll back the Rabbitohs to win by 1-12 points at 21/10. I’m getting on Latrell Mitchell for an anytime try as well, which is 1/1.
Saturday 12th September – New Zealand Warriors (2nd) vs The Dolphins (3rd)
Form guide
The Warriors scraped past Manly with a 31-30 victory last week to finish level on points with the Panthers. It wasn’t quite enough to take the Minor Premiership, but they head into this game off the back of six straight wins.
The Dolpins have exceeded all expectations to finish 3rd this year, and their 24-20 win over the Titans last week meant they finished the regular campaign with seven straight wins.
Team news
Warriors team: 1. Taine Tuaupiki 2. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 3. Ali Leiataua 4. Leka Halasima 5. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Te Maire Martin 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jacob Laban 13. Erin Clark 14. Samuel Healey 15. Tanner Stowers-Smith 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Jackson Ford 18. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava 20. Adam Pompey 21. Jett Cleary 22. Luke Laulilii 23. Makaia Tafua
Dolphins team: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jack Bostock 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Tom Gilbert 11. Max Plath 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Morgan Knowles 14. Kurt Donoghoe 15. Ray Stone 16. Francis Molo 17. Connelly Lemuelu 18. Felise Kaufusi 19. Brad Schneider 20. Jake Averillo 21. Brian Pouniu 22. Tevita Naufahu
My prediction – New Zealand Warriors 30-24 The Dolphins
Personally, I think this game’s the hardest one to call this weekend. I’m leaning towards the Warriors though. Home advantage could really help them this weekend, and after the season they’ve had they won’t be in the mood to let it slip in week one. The Dolphins will get another crack next week though, where I’d fancy them against whoever they face.
Betting tips
Again, I can see this being tight so I’m backing the Warriors to win by 1-12 points at 2/1. I’m getting on Leka Halasima for an anytime try as well, which is 6/4.
Saturday 12th September – Cronulla Sharks (5th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (8th)
Form guide
Having been a contender for the Minor Premiership earlier in the year, the Sharks dropped off alarmingly towards the end of the regular season. Their 24-20 loss to Melbourne Storm last week meant they finished the campaign with four defeats in their last five games.
The Cowboys are another side who stuttered their way towards the finish line. They were beaten 50-30 by the Raiders in Round 27, which was a third defeat in five games.
Team news
Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Riley Jones 4. KL Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Jesse Colquhoun 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Siosifa Talakai 15. Billy Burns 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Thomas Hazelton 18. Hohepa Puru 19. Toby Rudolf 20. Niwhai Puru 21. Samuel Stonestreet 22. Mawene Hiroti
Cowboys team: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Braidon Burns 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Tomas Chester 5. Zac Laybutt 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 8. Griffin Neame 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Soni Luke 15. John Bateman 16. Thomas Mikaele 17. Coen Hess 18. Kaiden Lahrs 19. Ethan King 20. Kai O’Donnell 21. Sam McIntyre 22. Liam Sutton
My prediction – Cronulla Sharks 30-18 North Queensland Cowboys
To put it bluntly, these two are lucky they’re facing each other this weekend or they’d both be going home. I can;t see either of them mounting a Premiership push, but of the two, I think the Sharks are more likely to find a performance again this week.
Betting tips
I’ll back the Sharks with a -7 handicap at 10/11. I’ll also get on the Sharks and under 48.5 points as a head to head/total points double, which is 6/4.
Sunday 13th September – Penrith Panthers (1st) vs Sydney Roosters (4th)
Form guide
The Panthers clinched the Minor Premiership with a comfortable 38-10 win over the Tigers in Round 27. They finished the year with three straight wins.
The Roosters finished with three straight losses, as they dropped off in the final weeks of the regular season. They were beaten 50-20 by the Rabbitohs last week (albeit with a weakened team).
Team news
Panthers team: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Luke Garner 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Jack Cole 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Liam Henry 17. Billy Phillips 18. Blaize Talagi 19. Billy Scott 20. Luron Patea 21. Kalani Leuluai-going 22. Jesse McLean
Roosters team: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Hugo Savala 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Reece Robson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Salesi Foketi 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Nat Butcher 17. Angus Crichton 18. Cody Ramsey 19. Tommy Talau 20. Egan Butcher 21. Benaiah Ioelu 22. Taylor Losalu
My prediction – Penrith Panthers 28-18 Sydney Roosters
The Roosters have fallen out of form at the worst possible time, while the Panthers have found theirs when it matters most. I can see the Chooks giving this a right good go, but without Sam Walker I expect them to lose this nine times out of ten.
Betting tips
Casey McLean is well priced at 11/10 for an anytime try. It’s the same price for the Roosters to score over 16.5 points, and I’ll back that too.
