NRL Grand Final 2025 – preview, predictions and tips
Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Sunday 5th October – Accor Stadium, Sydney
It all comes down to this. For the first time since 2020, there’ll be someone other than Penrith Panthers lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy.
Melbourne Storm were the winners back then, and a victory this weekend would be their 5th Premiership.
As for the Broncos, a win for them would be their 7th Premiership, and a first since 2006.
So, let’s get straight into it…
*All odds are taken from Paddy Power and correct at time of writing on 3rd October 2025.
Form guide
The Storm finished the regular season in 2nd, with a 17-7 record. A 26-18 win over the Bulldogs in week one of the Finals gave them a week off, and they saw off the Sharks 22-14 last weekend to book their place in a 12th Grand Final.
The Broncos also managed to get a week off during Finals, after securing a 4th-place finish and a win in week one. They beat the Raiders 28-29 in a game that’ll go down in history, before overcoming a 0-14 deficit against the four-time Premiers Penrith to beat them 16-14 last weekend.
Team news
Melbourne Storm have named the same 17 who saw off Cronulla last week. Joe Chan was named as 18th man against the Sharks, but Grant Anderson fills that role this weekend. Trent Loiero will make his 100th appearance in first grade.
Storm team: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Ativalu Lisati 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Alec MacDonald 18. Grant Anderson 19. Bronson Garlick 20. Joe Chan 21. Jonah Pezet 22. Sualauvi Faalogo
The Broncos have made just one change from the team that beat Penrith. Pat Carrigan is back from suspension to take the place of Tyson Smoothy, who goes to the bench. That means Ben Talty drops out of the 17, despite his impressive performances in the Finals so far. Ben Hunt is named to start, with Ezra Mam to come off the bench again, but there could be a late reshuffle on the day.
Broncos team: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ben Hunt 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Ezra Mam 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Xavier Willison 17. Tyson Smoothy 18. Jesse Arthars 19. Jack Gosiewski 20. Ben Talty 21. Selwyn Cobbo 22. Jock Madden
Head to head
This will be the third meeting between these two sides in 2025, and it’s 1-1 going into the Grand Final.
Melbourne Storm claimed a 22-2 home victory in Round 23 – a game that was most notable for Broncos halves Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds going off injured in the same passage of play.
In Round 27, it was the Broncos’ turn to pick up a home victory. A 30-14 win over the Storm securing Brisbane’s top four spot.
The coaches
My prediction – Melbourne Storm 20-16 Brisbane Broncos
This one’s too close to call, just as it should be on Grand Final day. I honestly didn’t think Brisbane had it in them to win a game the way they did against the Panthers last weekend. The Broncos usually win by 20+ or lose by 20+, so to grind out a two-point victory the way they did showed a different side of them.
I think the Storm will get the job done in this one though. They’ve got experience across the park when it comes to the biggest occasions, and I think that’ll count when it comes to the crunch.
Betting tips
I’m getting straight on the Storm to win by 1-12 points, at 2/1. Xavier Coates to score a try and Melbourne to win has been boosted to 9/5 as well, and I like the look of that. Harry Grant is often the man for the big occasion, and he’s my outsider tip for an anytime try, at 10/3.
