NRL 2025 – Round 4 preview and predictions
We’re only three rounds in, but it’s already becoming clear who the Premiership contenders, pretenders and no-hopers are. Maybe that’s a little harsh, but some teams look a million miles away from a top eight spot, while others – like Melbourne Storm – are purring.
So without further ado, let’s take a look at this weekend’s round four fixtures. Newcastle Knights have got the bye this week, so they’ve got two points in the bag already…
Thursday 27th March – South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
After winning their opening two games, Souths came back down to earth with a bump last week, as they were soundly beaten 27-12 by the Sharks. The 15-point margin actually flattered the Bunnies a little, with Cronulla having two first half tries chalked off.
As for the Panthers, it’s been a very mixed start for them. Just one win from their opening three games and 90 points conceded, although they can take a lot of heart from their performance in Melbourne last week. After falling 14-0 behind in the opening 20 minutes, it looked as though the Storm might do a number on them, but in the end it was only missed conversions that cost them, as they went down 30-24.
Team news
Alex Johnston is back for the Rabbitohs for his first appearance since round 21 last year. Campbell Graham suffered an injury last weekend though, so he’s out, which means Isaiah Tass moves into the centres with Johnston coming back on the wing.
Rabbitohs team: 1. Jye Gray 2. Alex Johnston 3. Jack Wighton 4. Isaiah Tass 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Cody Walker 7. Jamie Humphreys 8. Sean Keppie 9. Peter Mamouzelos 10. Davvy Moale 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Tallis Duncan 14. Jayden Sullivan 15. Siliva Havili 16. Liam Le Blanc 17. Tevita Tatola 18. Fletcher Myers 19. Lewis Dodd
Players cut: 20. Talanoa Penitani, 21. Thomas Fletcher, 22. Salesi Ataata
The big news for the Panthers is the loss of Nathan Cleary, who’s ruled out due to concussion protocols. Trent Toelau has been named in the number seven jersey to replace him. Daine Laurie is available again and comes straight into the starting side at fullback, with incumbent Dylan Edwards still ruled out. Last week’s number one Tom Jenkins has moved into the centres, with Paul Alamoti shifting to the wing and Casey McLean dropped from the 17.
Panthers team: 1. Daine Laurie 2. Paul Alamoti 3. Izack Tago 4. Thomas Jenkins 5. Brian To’o 6. Jack Cole 7. Trent Toelau 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 15. Isaiah Papali’i 16. Liam Henry 17. Luke Garner 22. Brad Schneider
Players cut: 14. Blaize Talagi, 18. Casey McLean, 19. Matt Eisenhuth, 20. Luron Patea, 21. Luke Sommerton
My prediction – South Sydney Rabbitohs 10-22 Penrith Panthers
Based on form this should be closer than this, but I’ve not been entirely convinced by the Rabbitohs so far, and I can see Penrith picking up after a disappointing couple of results. Even in defeat, the Panthers have been scoring lots of points, so it’s just a case of tightening up defensively.
Betting tips
The Panthers with a -10 handicap looks a good shout at 10/11. Liam Martin as an anytime try scorer is well priced at 15/8, as well.
Friday 28th March – Sydney Roosters vs Gold Coast Titans – Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
After an impressive win over the Panthers in round two, the Roosters lost out to the Warriors in round three, going down 14-6 in Auckland to sit on a 1-2 record for the year.
As for the Titans, they picked up an impressive 26-6 win over the Knights, after losing to the Bulldogs in their first match of the year.
Team news
The injury-hit Roosters are without Connor Watson this weekend, so Zach Dockar-Clay starts at hooker. They have been boosted by the returns of Nat Butcher and Lindsay Collins though, who both start on the bench this week.
Roosters team: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Mark Nawaqanitawase 4. Robert Toia 5. Dominic Young 6. Sandon Smith 7. Chad Townsend 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Zach Dockar-Clay 10. Spencer Leniu 11. Angus Crichton 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley 14. Hugo Savala 15. Blake Steep 16. Nat Butcher 17. Lindsay Collins 18. Billy Smith 19. Makahesi Makatoa 20. Ethan King 21. Tyler Moriarty 22. Taylor Losalu
The Titans have lost fullback Keano Kini to a neck injury, so Jaylan de Groot will play just his second NRL game. Try-scoring machine Alofiana Khan-Pereira and big forward Jaimin Jolliffe are both still missing.
Titans team: 1. Jaylan De Groot 2. Tony Francis 3. Brian Kelly 4. Phillip Sami 5. Jojo Fifita 6. AJ Brimson 7. Jayden Campbell 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Klese Haas 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 14. Chris Randall 15. David Fifita 16. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui 17. Brock Gray 18. Arama Hau 19. Tom Weaver 20. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 21. Tukimihia Simpkins 22. Ken Maumalo
My prediction – Sydney Roosters 20-14 Gold Coast Titans
Despite all the absentees, I can’t see past the Roosters at home. Gold Coast will give them a run for their money, and this should be a close game, but I can see the Chooks having just enough to get past them in Sydney.
Betting tips
Mark Nawaqanitawase to score a try at any time is 15/8. With two tries in his first four NRL games, that price looks too good to turn down.
Friday 28th March – Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Form guide
The Dolphins are 0-3 to start the year and only four teams have conceded more points. Last weekend saw them go down 18-30 to a resurgent Wests Tigers in Redcliffe, losing a 12-0 lead in the process.
As for the Broncos, they bounced back from a disappointing loss to Canberra in round two, beating Queensland rivals, the Cowboys, 26-16, to move to a 2-1 record for 2025.
Team news
Coach Kristian Woolf has named the same 17 as last week for the Dolphins, with veteran forward Kenny Bromwich left out again.
Dolphins team: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Felise Kaufusi 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Max Plath 13. Tom Gilbert 14. Kurt Donoghoe 15. Oryn Keeley 16. Mark Nicholls 17. Ray Stone 18. Kenny Bromwich 19. Sean O’Sullivan 20. Josh Kerr 21. Max Feagai 22. Junior Tupou
There’s just one change for the Broncos, with Kotoni Staggs returning for his first game of 2025. The NSW centre replaces Deine Mariner in the starting lineup. Mariner has been left out of the 17, with Gehamat Shibasaki preferred to him in the other centre position.
Broncos team: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ben Hunt 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Patrick Carrigan 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Jordan Riki 13. Kobe Hetherington 14. Billy Walters 15. Corey Jensen 16. Xavier Willison 17. Brendan Piakura 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Deine Mariner 20. Martin Taupau 21. Jaiyden Hunt 22. Jock Madden
My prediction – Dolphins 14-32 Brisbane Broncos
I can see Brisbane winning this one relatively comfortably. The Dolphins have plenty of strike, and I’m expecting them to score some points, but the Broncos will match it and then some. And despite this being a ‘home’ game for the Dolphins, it’s at Suncorp, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Broncos’ fans outnumber the ‘Phins supporters, which will only add to their favourites’ tag.
Betting tips
The Broncos should be safe with a -14 handicap at 10/11. In the try scoring market, Kotoni Staggs is 1/1 to score at anytime on his return, and that’s the best value out of the Broncos’ likely try scorers.
Saturday 29th March – St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm – Netsrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Dragons had the bye in round three, which meant they picked up their first two points of the year. In fairness they lost their opening two games by margins of eight and one, so they’ve been competitive without picking up a victory.
As for Melbourne, it’s been business as usual for them. They started the year with a hugely impressive 56-18 win over the Eels, then had the week off in round two, before toppling the Panthers 30-24 last weekend.
Team news
Blake Lawrie and Raymond Faitala-Mariner have been dropped for the Dragons, following the team’s disappointing loss to South Sydney in round two. Dylan Egan will make his NRL debut in place of Faitala-Mariner, while 238-gamer David Klemmer will make his club debut after arriving from the Tigers last week.
Dragons team: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Tyrell Sloan 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Toby Couchman 9. Damien Cook 10. Emre Guler 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack de Belin 14. Jacob Liddle 15. David Klemmer 16. Hamish Stewart 17. Dylan Egan 18. Mathew Feagai 19. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 20. Blake Lawrie 21. Tom Eisenhuth 22. Lyhkan King-Togia
The Storm have lost Nick Meaney, Jahrome Hughes and Nelson Asofa-Solomona from last week, so Lazarus Vaalepu, Bronson Garlick and Will Warbrick come into the 17. Warbrick’s return from concussion means Grant Anderson shifts from the wing to the centres, while the versatile Tyran Wishart is the man entrusted with replacing Hughes in the halves. Fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen is a doubt, with Sua Fa’alogo likely to step in if he misses out.
Storm team: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Grant Anderson 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tyran Wishart 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Lazarus Vaalepu 18. Kane Bradley 19. Marion Seve 20. Keagan Russell-Smith 21. Sualauvi Faalogo 22. Angus Hinchey
My prediction – St George Illawarra Dragons 6-38 Melbourne Storm
I can see Melbourne putting a score on the winless Dragons this weekend. Despite missing some big players through injury, the Storm always seem to have a ready-made replacement in waiting and they rarely skip a beat.
Betting tips
The Storm are 10/11 with a -10 handicap, which looks pretty safe to me. Harry Grant looks nicely priced at 2/1 to score a try anytime as well.
Saturday 29th March – North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders – Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Form guide
The Cowboys were woeful in the opening two rounds and they have the joint-worst defensive record so far with 104 points conceded. They were much improved against Brisbane last weekend, but fell short in a 26-16 loss.
As for the Raiders, they started the season with two very impressive wins over the Warriors and the Broncos, before suffering a 40-12 hammering against Manly in round three.
Team news
Zac Laybutt could make his first appearance since round five in 2024 for the Cowboys, after recovering from an ACL injury. He’s been named on the extended bench. Viliami Vailea came off early last week, but he’s been named in the starting side.
Cowboys team: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. John Bateman 12. Kai O’Donnell 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Jeremiah Nanai 16. Griffin Neame 17. Coen Hess 18. Harrison Edwards 19. Zac Laybutt 20. Thomas Duffy 21. Karl Lawton 22. Thomas Mikaele
Joseph Tapine is back from suspension for the Raiders, and he replaces Morgan Smithies, who’s ruled out with concussion. Tapine’s return at prop sees Corey Horsburgh move to lock and Trey Mooney go to the bench.
Raiders team: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Matt Nicholson 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Trey Mooney 17. Ata Mariota 18. Danny Levi 19. Jed Stuart 20. Pasami Saulo 21. Albert Hopoate 22. Adam Cook
My prediction – North Queensland Cowboys 12-20 Canberra Raiders
The only case I can make for the Cowboys this week is the fact they’re at home and the Raiders often struggle on the road, but neither of those are enough for me. Based purely on form and performances, it’s hard to see past Canberra, although they were hammered last week. North Queensland put in a spirited performance in defeat against Brisbane, which makes me think this might be a bit closer than it could have been, but I still can’t see past the Green Machine.
Betting tips
The Cowboys are favourites for this one, which surprises me. A Canberra win is 11/10, which looks too good to pass up.
Saturday 29th March – Cronulla Sharks vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – Sharks Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
Cronulla are 2-1 to start the season, with their only loss coming to the reigning Premiers, Penrith, in Las Vegas. They were highly impressive in the opening 40 last weekend against the Bunnies as well, and they already look a safe bet for the top eight.
So do the Bulldogs for that matter, who are the only team to win their opening three games (Melbourne are also unbeaten, but have only played two). Last weekend, Canterbury saw off the Eels, 8-16, and they’re ticking along nicely so far in 2025.
Team news
Tom Hazelton is back from injury for the Sharks and he replaces Braden Hamlin-Uele, who suffered a knee injury last weekend. That’s the only change from the win over South Sydney, with Siosifa Talakai named in the 17 despite going off early in that match.
Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Samuel Stonestreet 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Siosifa Talakai 16. Thomas Hazelton 17. Tuku Hau Tapuha 18. Jayden Berrell 19. Mawene Hiroti 20. Hohepa Puru 21. Toby Rudolf 22. Billy Burns
Unsurprisingly, the Bulldogs are unchanged from last weekend’s win over the Eels. Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau are still at least three weeks away from returning.
Bulldogs team: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Blake Wilson 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Bailey Hayward 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 11. Josh Curran 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon 14. Kurt Mann 15. Harry Hayes 16. Sitili Tupouniua 17. Kurtis Morrin 19. Joseph O’Neill 20. Blake Taaffe 21. Jack Todd 22. Luke Smith 23. Jonathan Sua
My prediction – Cronulla Sharks 20-22 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
This could be the match of the round, and it’s hard to separate the two of them. For no reason other than gut instinct, I’m going for the Doggies to edge this one, but it really could go either way.
Betting tips
Again, the Sharks are big favourites to win this game, but I can see it being closer than the bookies do. Granted, the Bulldogs are missing some players, but at 3/1 for the win, that’s too good to turn down.
Sunday 30th March – Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels – 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Form guide
Manly are 2-1 so far this year, with two big home wins sandwiching a big away loss to the Warriors in Auckland. That game looks like the exception though, with the Sea Eagles sitting joint-top of the points chart on 98 from their opening three games.
As for the Eels, if you offered them the chance to turn back the clock four weeks and start again, they’d bite your hand off. Bottom of the ladder with the fewest points scored and the joint-most conceded, it’s been a baptism of fire for rookie coach Jason Ryles so far.
Team news
Tom Trbojevic is a surprise inclusion for Manly after missing out with a hamstring injury last weekend. His return at fullback sees Lehi Hopoate switch to the wing and Clayton Faulalo make way from the 17. Taniela Paseka is injured, so Nathan Brown is on the bench, and Josh Aloiai starts in the front row.
Sea Eagles team: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Corey Waddell 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown 18. Clayton Faulalo 19. Jakob Arthur 20. Toafofoa Sipley 21. Raymond Tuiamalo Vaega 22. Dean Matterson
Sean Russell has been recalled on the wing for Parramatta, in place of Jordan Samrani. Dan Keir has been named in the 17 for the first time this year, with Sam Tuivaiti dropping to 18th man.
Eels team: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Sean Russell 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Zac Lomax 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Jack Williams 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Ryley Smith 15. Matt Doorey 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Dan Keir 18. Sam Tuivaiti 19. Charlie Guymer 20. Joash Papali’i 21. Ronald Volkman 22. Jordan Samrani
My prediction – Manly Sea Eagles 44-12 Parramatta Eels
At some point I can see the Eels picking up and getting some wins on the board, but not this week. Manly are too hot right now, and despite an improvement last week, Parra look a long way off most sides in the competition.
Betting tips
Manly to score over 35.5 points looks likely at 4/5. Jason Saab, Tom Trbojevic and Reuben Garrick all to score a try looks a good shout too, at 11/4.
Sunday 30th March – Wests Tigers vs New Zealand Warriors – Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Tigers won’t be getting too carried away yet, but they’ve made an excellent start to the year, sitting in 4th with a 2-1 record. They’ve scored 32 and 30 in their past two games, and their opening round loss to the Knights was only by two points, so they’re ticking along nicely so far.
The Warriors started the year with a disappointing loss to the Raiders in Vegas, but have since bounced back with two impressive home wins against Manly and the Roosters.
Team news
The Tigers are unchanged from 1-17. Jeral Skelton was a doubt after going down with a hamstring injury against the Dolphins, but he’s been named on the wing.
Tigers team: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Starford To’a 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Jarome Luai 8. Terrell May 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Fonua Pole 11. Samuela Fainu 12. Alex Seyfarth 13. Alex Twal 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Royce Hunt 16. Jack Bird 17. Sione Fainu 18. Latu Fainu 19. Heath Mason 20. Kit Laulilii 21. Tony Sukkar 22. Solomona Faataape
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been ruled out for up to eight weeks in a huge blow for the Warriors. His absence means Adam Pompey shifts to the wing, with Rocco Berry coming into the centres for his first taste of NRL in 2025. Dylan Walker was named on the bench, but he’s since completed a move to Parramatta, so expect Te Maire Martin to be named in the final 17 on matchday.
Warriors team: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Taine Tuaupiki 3. Rocco Berry 4. Ali Leiataua 5. Adam Pompey 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Luke Metcalf 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark 14. N/A 15. Jackson Ford 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Leka Halasima 18. Te Maire Martin 20. Jacob Laban 21. Samuel Healey 22. Bunty Afoa 23. Edward Kosi
My prediction – Wests Tigers 24-14 New Zealand Warriors
The Tigers have been impressive so far this year and there’s no reason why they can’t keep up the good from this weekend. The Warriors don’t always travel too well, and home advantage should give Wests the edge in this one.
Betting tips
I can see this being fairly close, so the Tigers to win by 1-10 points would be my bet, at 9/4. In the try scoring market, it’s 6/1 for Jeral Skelton to score first, and I like the look of that too.
