NRL 2025 – Round 17 preview, predictions and tips
Some things are more important than rugby league, and this weekend’s a timely reminder of that as the NRL celebrates its annual Beanie for Brain Cancer Round. More than $35m has been raised since the first one back in 2017, and it continues to grow year on year.
You can find out more about the NRL’s initiative, and get your beanie at https://markhughesfoundation.com.au/
And now to the action, starting off with an absolute belter on Thursday…
- Thursday 26th June – Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – CommBank Stadium, Sydney
- Friday 27th June – Manly Sea Eagles vs Wests Tigers – 4 Pines Park, Sydney
- Friday 27th June – Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders – McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
- Saturday 28th June – Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
- Saturday 28th June – St George Illawarra Dragons vs Parramatta Eels – WIN Stadium, Wollongong
- Saturday 28th June – The Dolphins vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
- Sunday 29th June – Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks – AAMI Park, Melbourne
- Sunday 29th June – Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys – Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
*All betting odds are from Paddy Power, and correct at time of writing on 25th June 2025.
Thursday 26th June – Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Panthers made it three straight wins last weekend, as they picked up a surprise 18-28 win over the Warriors in Auckland. That victory came despite Penrith missing all of their Origin stars, but the two points lifted them into the top eight for the first time since the end of Round One.
The Bulldogs had a bye in Round 16, but their 18-24 win over the Rabbitohs the previous week coupled with the two bye round points, means they finished the round still top of the ladder. They’re two points clear of Canberra, but the Bulldogs have had all three of their byes for the year, with the Raiders having two still to come.
Team news
Isaah Yeo, Nathan Cleary, Brian To’o, Liam Martin and Dylan Edwards are all back for the Panthers after Origin duty. Paul Alamoti, Daine Laurie, Matt Eisenhuth and Trent Toelau all drop out, while Scott Sorensen is suspended. Brad Schneider and Luke Garner shift to the bench.
Panthers team: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Brad Schneider 15. Liam Henry 16. Luron Patea 17. Luke Garner 18. Paul Alamoti 19. Matt Eisenhuth 20. Daine Laurie 21. Trent Toelau 22. Luke Sommerton
The Bulldogs have Stephen Crichton, Max King, Kurt Mann and Matt Burton back from Origin duty. Jacob Kiraz shifts to the wing, Lachlan Galvin moves to the bench, while Kurt Morrin switches to 18th man. Jake Turpin and Blake Wilson drop out of the squad.
Bulldogs team: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Bailey Hayward 14. Kurt Mann 15. Harry Hayes 16. Josh Curran 17. Lachlan Galvin 19. Kurtis Morrin 20. Mitchell Woods 21. Samuel Hughes 22. Jethro Rinakama 23. Blake Taaffe
My prediction – Penrith Panthers 14-20 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Despite Penrith’s return to form of sorts, I can see them coming up just short here. Star man Nathan Cleary will either be playing through the pain barrier or sitting out, whereas the Bulldogs are so stacked right now they can afford to bring Lachlan Galvin off the interchange. I can see this being close, but the Bulldogs should have enough to get past them.
Betting tips
With this match being so tight on paper, the Bulldogs with a -2 handicap looks a good start at 10/11. In the try scoring market, maybe I’m being sucked in a little by the fact it’s his 150th game, but Marcelo Montoya looks a good price at 11/10 for an anytime try. He got two last weekend, and has seven in 13 this year overall.
Friday 27th June – Manly Sea Eagles vs Wests Tigers – 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Form guide
Manly had the weekend off in Round 16, which was probably just as well following back-to-back defeats against the lowly Knights and Titans. The Sea Eagles go into this weekend in 10th, but they’re just two points off the top eight.
The Tigers, meanwhile, put up a spirited second half display in Round 16 against the Raiders, but they ultimately fell short in a 12-16 defeat. That made it five straight losses, and they sit down in 14th. They’re still only three points off a top eight spot though, as they chase a first Finals appearance since 2011.
Team news
Tom Trbojevic shifts to the centres for Manly with Lehi Hopoate replacing him at fullback. Reuben Garrick moves to the wing and Jason Saab drops out. Haumole Olakau’atu misses out through injury, while Corey Waddell and Matt Lodge come into the starting team. Jazz Tevaga starts at hooker and Jake Simpkin comes onto the bench with Lachlan Croker missing through concussion.
Sea Eagles team: 1. Lehi Hopoate 2. Tommy Talau 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Tom Trbojevic 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Matthew Lodge 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Corey Waddell 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Ethan Bullemor 16. Nathan Brown 17. Toafofoa Sipley 18. Michael Chee Kam 19. Jason Saab 20. Clayton Faulalo 21. Joey Walsh 22. Caleb Navale
Jarome Luai switches to five-eighth this week for the Tigers with Latu Fainu taking over at halfback. Heath Mason moves to fullback with Jahream Bula ruled out for the next month. Tony Sukkar joins the bench.
Tigers team: 1. Heath Mason 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Starford To’a 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Jarome Luai 7. Latu Fainu 8. Terrell May 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Fonua Pole 11. Samuela Fainu 12. Jack Bird 13. Alex Twal 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Alex Seyfarth 16. Sione Fainu 17. Tony Sukkar 18. Luke Laulilii 19. Charlie Murray 20. Kit Laulilii 21. Charlie Staines 22. Tristan Hope
My prediction – Manly Sea Eagles 10-16 Wests Tigers
Both of these sides are out of form, so it’s hard to say which one will bounce back this week. I’m backing the Tigers though. They put up a spirited second half display against the Raiders last weekend, so if they can carry that into this weekend, they’ll have a chance. Moving Jarome Luai to number six should help him find his form too.
Betting tips
Manly are favourites in this one, so I’m jumping straight on the Tigers at 17/10. They’re also 10/11 with a +6 handicap, which looks good. Even if the Sea Eagles do win, I can;t see them running away with it.
Friday 27th June – Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders – McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Form guide
The Knights continued their rather bizarre form with a surprising 20-26 win at the Dolphins last weekend. That victory lifted them up to 13th, and they’re just three points off the top eight.
As for the Raiders, it wasn’t a vintage display in Round 16, but they still had enough to see off the Tigers, 12-16. That made it five straight wins as they tightened their grip on 2nd spot.
Team news
Jackson Hastings comes in for only his second game of the year in place of Fletcher Sharpe, who ruptured his spleen and lacerated his kidney for the Knights last week. Jacob Saifiti is back for the first time since Round11, so Mat Croker goes to the bench. Greg Marzhew and Jack Hetherington are part of the extended squad as they look to come back from injury.
Knights team: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. James Schiller 6. Jackson Hastings 7. Jack Cogger 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Tyson Frizell 11. Dylan Lucas 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Phoenix Crossland 14. Brodie Jones 15. Thomas Cant 16. Jermaine McEwen 17. Mathew Croker 18. Elijah Leaumoana 19. Tyson Gamble 20. Fletcher Hunt 21. Greg Marzhew 22. Jack Hetherington
The Raiders make minimal changes this week with Hudson Young rested, Simi Sisagi coming into the starting side and Noah Martin joining the bench.
Raiders team: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jed Stuart 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Simi Sasagi 12. Zac Hosking 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Owen Pattie 15. Noah Martin 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Ata Mariota 18. Trey Mooney 19. Pasami Saulo 20. Chevy Stewart 21. Danny Levi 22. Ethan Sanders
My prediction – Newcastle Knights 12-26 Canberra Raiders
The Knights picked up a great win last weekend over the Dolphins, but I can’t see them backing it up this week against a better side in the Raiders. Canberra have won five straight, and it’s hard to look past that in this one.
Betting tips
I’m backing the Raiders with a -8 handicap, at 10/11. In the try scoring market, most of the outside backs are pretty short odds, so I’m going for Matt Timoko, at 15/8 for an anytime score. He’s overdue a try, and with six from 15 games this year he knows where the line is.
Saturday 28th June – Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Form guide
It’s probably a little early to suggest the Broncos have turned a corner, but their 34-28 win over the Sharks last weekend made it back-to-back victories and lifted them up to 5th.
Meanwhile, the Warriors suffered a rather surprising 18-28 loss in Auckland to a Panthers side missing all their Origin players. The defeat means they’ve dropped a place to 4th, but they remain six points clear of the 5th-placed Broncos heading into this one.
Team news
The Broncos are unchanged from 1-17 from last weekend. Selwyn Cobbo is back in the extended squad after three weeks out of first grade.
Broncos team: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Billy Walters 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Xavier Willison 17. Jack Gosiewski 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Selwyn Cobbo 20. Deine Mariner 21. Jaiyden Hunt 22. Ben Talty
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is ruled out for the Warriors, so Ed Kosi comes in on the wing. Rocco Berry is back from injury in the centres and Kurt Capewell returns after being rested following Origin II. Leka Halasima goes to the bench and Tanner Stowers-Smith moves to 18th man.
Warriors team: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Edward Kosi 3. Adam Pompey 4. Rocco Berry 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Luke Metcalf 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Marata Niukore 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jacob Laban 13. Erin Clark 14. Te Maire Martin 15. Jackson Ford 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Leka Halasima 18. Tanner Stowers-Smith 20. Tanah Boyd 21. Samuel Healey 22. Bunty Afoa 23. Taine Tuaupiki
My prediction – Brisbane Broncos 16-28 New Zealand Warriors
I’m not convinced the Broncos have fully turned a corner, and the Warriors have yet to lose back-to-back games this year. I can’t see them starting this weekend.
Betting tips
Brisbane are favourites for this one, so I’m getting straight on a Warriors win, at 8/5. Despite backing the away side, I’m still expecting the Broncos to score points, and Gehamat Shibasaki is very well priced at 7/5 for an anytime try. He’s got four in his past two games.
Saturday 28th June – St George Illawarra Dragons vs Parramatta Eels – WIN Stadium, Wollongong
Form guide
The Dragons had a bye last weekend, but they suffered back-to-back defeats in the two games before that, so we’l find out on Saturday if the week off has done them good. They sit 11th on the ladder, just one point outside the top eight.
The Eels picked up a much-needed victory in Round 16, seeing off the Titans in a bottom-of-the-ladder clash. That victory lifted them up a spot to 15th, just three points off the top eight.
Team news
Corey Allan, Jaydn Su’A and Christian Tuipulotu are back from injury for the Dragons, while Valentine Holmes returns after missing last weekend following Origin II. Loko Pasifiki Tonga drops out of the 17 to make way for Viliami Fifita to play his first NRL game of the year. Tyrell Sloan drops out completely following the news that he’s free to speak with other clubs.
Dragons team: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Corey Allan 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Lyhkan King-Togia 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Emre Guler 9. Damien Cook 10. David Klemmer 11. Toby Couchman 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack de Belin 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Hamish Stewart 16. Viliami Fifita 17. Luciano Leilua 18. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga 19. Lachlan Ilias 20. Blake Lawrie 21. Nicholas Tsougranis 22. Nathan Lawson
Dylan Brown’s back from suspension for the Eels, so Joash Papalii moves to the bench. Jordan Samrani replaces the suspended Will Penisini in the centres, while Papalii takes Ryley Smith’s spot on the bench as he’s suspended.
Eels team: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Zac Lomax 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Jack Williams 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Dylan Walker 15. Matt Doorey 16. Charlie Guymer 17. Joash Papali’i 18. Dan Keir 19. Toni Mataele 20. Brendan Hands 21. Ronald Volkman 22. Samuel Loizou
My prediction – St George Illawarra Dragons 10-14 Parramatta Eels
This is a tough one to call with neither side pulling up any trees this year. I’m tipping the Eels to edge it though, off the back of a good win last weekend.
Betting tips
Again, I’m going against the bookies here, so the 7/5 on an Eels win is where I’m starting. It’s 5/6 for the Dragons to score under 24.5 points, and that looks too good to miss. They’ve only scored more than that on three occasions, and the last was in Round 11.
Saturday 28th June – The Dolphins vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Form guide
After three straight wins and 158 points scored across them, the Dolphins suffered something of a surprise loss last week, going down 20-26 at home to the Knights. The defeat meant they dropped out of the top eight, but they’re just one point and one place shy.
The Rabbitohs put up an outstanding fight against Melbourne last time out, but ultimately fell short in a 24-25 Golden Point loss. That made it four straight defeats for the Bunnies, who have dropped to 16th.
Team news
Jack Bostock has been cruelly ruled out for the rest of the year with an ACL injury, so Junior Tupou comes into the Dolphins side for his first game since Round Two. Josh Kerr comes back on the bench with Aublix Tawha dropping out.
Dolphins team: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Junior Tupou 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Francis Molo 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Mark Nicholls 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Oryn Keeley 13. Kurt Donoghoe 14. Harrison Graham 15. Connelly Lemuelu 16. Ray Stone 17. Josh Kerr 18. Sean O’Sullivan 19. Max Feagai 20. Aublix Tawha 21. Tevita Naufahu 22. Peter Hola
Campbell Graham and Cody Walker are back in the Rabbitohs’ starting side in a huge boost. Jack Wighton shifts to centre and Euan Aitken goes to the back row with Isaiah Tass, Ryan Gray and Liam Le Blanc dropping out of the 17. Jayden Sullivan is named in the extended squad as he eyes a comeback, while Englishman Lewis Dodd misses out altogether, as a fourth NRL appearance looks further away than ever for the big-money arrival from St. Helens.
Rabbitohs team: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Jack Wighton 4. Campbell Graham 5. Tyrone Munro 6. Cody Walker 7. Jamie Humphreys 8. Sean Keppie 9. Siliva Havili 10. Keaon Koloamatangi 11. Euan Aitken 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Jai Arrow 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Lachlan Hubner 16. Davvy Moale 17. Tevita Tatola 18. Isaiah Tass 19. Liam Le Blanc 20. Jayden Sullivan 21. Ryan Gray 22. Jacob Host
My prediction – The Dolphins 24-30 South Sydney Rabbitohs
With most of the big guns back on deck this week, I can see the Rabbitohs bouncing back with a win. That said, the Dolphins won’t make life easy for them, and this has the potential to be a thriller.
Betting tips
I’m going against the odds again here, so I’m getting straight on the Rabbitohs at 6/4 in the outright market. High-scoring games are pretty common when either of these sides are involved too, so I’m backing over 50.5 points in the match, at 1/1. That also opens up the try scoring market, but most of the outside backs have pretty average odds, so Campbell Graham looks the best value at 9/4.
Sunday 29th June – Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks – AAMI Park, Melbourne
Form guide
The Storm scraped past South Sydney by the skin of their teeth last time out, with a 24-25 Golden Point victory. Incredibly it was the first time this year Melbourne have won three on the bounce, but the victory lifted them up a place to 3rd.
As for the Sharks, they blew a big lead in a 34-28 loss to the Broncos in Round 16. It’s just one win from their last four for Cronulla, but they remain 6th on the ladder heading into this weekend.
Team news
Xavier Coates is back for the Storm after being rested last weekend following Origin II. Grant Anderson shifts to the centres in place of Jack Howarth. Origin forwards Stefano Utoikamanu and Trent Loiero are back in the starting side after coming off the bench last week.
Storm team: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Sualauvi Faalogo 3. Grant Anderson 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 18. Ativalu Lisati 19. Bronson Garlick 20. Joe Chan 21. Keagan Russell-Smith 22. Kane Bradley
Minimal changes for the Sharks this week with Oregon Kaufusi returning in place of Braden Hamlin-Uele, who drops to the bench. Hohepa Puru drops out.
Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jesse Colquhoun 16. Toby Rudolf 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 18. Billy Burns 19. Hohepa Puru 20. Niwhai Puru 21. Chris Veaila 22. Jayden Berrell
My prediction – Melbourne Storm 24-16 Cronulla Sharks
More often than not this year, the Storm have been ticking along without being overly impressive. At some point, I think they’ll ignite, but the Sharks can be a stubborn outfit and I’m expecting a response from them this week after blowing a big lead in Brisbane last time out. It won’t be enough to get the win though.
Betting tips
The Storm have been given a -10 handicap in this one, which I think could be doing a disservice to Cronulla. Therefore, I’m looking in the anytime try market here. Xavier Coates is priced at 4/5, which is far too tempting to pass up. You can also get 21/10 on Jahrome Hughes – he’s scored three in his past two games, so that price is generous – and it’s 9/5 for Eli Katoa. He’s got five in 13 games this year, which makes him more dangerous than some of the competition’s wingers.
Sunday 29th June – Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys – Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Form guide
The Titans failed to build on their surprise Round 15 win over Manly last weekend, as they lost the basement battle with Parramatta, 36-20. They remain bottom of the ladder and only a huge victory this weekend can change that given their poor points difference.
If they are going to batter someone this weekend, they could do a lot worse than face the Cowboys. The North Queenslanders are in freefall, with last week’s 42-8 loss to the Roosters making it one win from their past seven games. Alarmingly, they’re conceding a lot of points as well, and they have the joint worst defence in the NRL, alongside…the Titans.
Team news
Jayden Campbell is ruled out with a head knock for the Titans, so Tom Weaver takes over at halfback. Origin pair Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Moeaki Fotuaika are back in the starting side after coming off the bench last week, so Klese Haas reverts to the bench alongside Jacob Alick-Wienke and Iszac Fa’asuamaleaui.
Titans team: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Jojo Fifita 4. Phillip Sami 5. Allan Fitzgibbon 6. Kieran Foran 7. Tom Weaver 8. Jaimin Jolliffe 9. Sam Verrills 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Chris Randall 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 14. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Klese Haas 17. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui 18. Jaylan De Groot 19. Arama Hau 20. Tukimihia Simpkins 21. Sean Mullany 22. Brian Kelly
The Cowboys have recalled Jake Clifford in the number six jersey, so Jaxon Purdue moves to the centres and Braidon Burns misses out. Reece Robson and Reuben Cotter are back after being rested following Origin duty last weekend, with Kai O’Donnell and Thomas Duffy dropping out. Karl Lawton is missing through suspension.
Cowboys team: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Zac Laybutt 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Sam McIntyre 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Harrison Edwards 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Griffin Neame 17. Coen Hess 18. Thomas Duffy 19. Kaiden Lahrs 20. Kai O’Donnell 21. Braidon Burns 22. Marly Bitungane
My prediction – Gold Coast Titans 14-22 North Queensland Cowboys
On paper the Cowboys are too good to keep sliding down the ladder, and they’ve got a couple of big names back this week. Surely, they’ll fancy their chances against a side sitting at the bottom. If they don’t win this, their hopes of Finals will look very slim indeed.
Betting tips
The Cowboys are 10/11 with a -2 handicap, which should be safe. Jaxon Purdue’s shift back to the centres should create more chances for him, so the 6/5 on an anytime try looks a great price. Of his eight tries this year, he’s scored one in five games in the halves and seven in 10 games playing in the centres.
