NRL 2025 – Round 16 preview, predictions and tips

Wow! Another two minutes and we would have seen the greatest comeback in Origin history, but Queensland hung on to take it to a decider in Sydney.

After the excitement of Origin Two, there’s barely time to blink before the NRL is back this weekend. And we start with a Canberra side looking to go top on Friday…

Friday 20th June 2025 – Wests Tigers vs Canberra Raiders – Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney

Form guide

The Tigers had a bye in Round 15, but their 14-18 loss at home to the Panthers the previous week was their fourth in a row. They sit 13th, but are only two points off the top eight coming into this weekend.

Meanwhile, the Raiders continue to charge towards a top four finish and possibly even a Minor Premiership. They also had a bye in Round 15, but their 36-12 win over the Rabbitohs in Round 14 was their fourth straight victory, and they come into this weekend in 2nd.

Team news

Jarome Luai has been named to back up from Origin for the Tigers, but whether he makes it on gameday or not remains to be seen. Prop Fonua Pole is back from a knee injury, so Sione Fainu shifts to the bench. Alex Twal is back from concussion as well, while Tallyn Da Silva joins the bench. Charlie Murray and Kit Laulilii drop out of the squad.

Tigers team: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Starford To’a 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Heath Mason 7. Jarome Luai 8. Terrell May 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Fonua Pole 11. Samuela Fainu 12. Alex Seyfarth 13. Alex Twal 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Sione Fainu 16. Latu Fainu 17. Jack Bird 18. Tony Sukkar 19. Charlie Murray 20. Charlie Staines 21. Kit Laulilii 22. Izaac Tu’itupou

The Raiders have also named their Origin pair of Hudson Young and Corey Horsburgh. Winger Jed Stuart will make his NRL debut in place of the injured Savelio Tamale.

Raiders team: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jed Stuart 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Zac Hosking 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Ata Mariota 18. Noah Martin 19. Chevy Stewart 20. Danny Levi 21. Ethan Sanders 22. Pasami Saulo

My prediction – Wests Tigers 12-26 Canberra Raiders

It’s hard to see past Canberra in this one, given both sides’ current form. If the Tigers are on it, they could cause a few headaches for the Green Machine, but the Raiders should have enough to see them off.

Betting tips

I’m backing Jed Stuart for an anytime try on debut, at 5/6. Canberra should be safe with a -9 handicap too, at 10/11.

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Saturday 21st June 2025 – New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Go Media Stadium, Auckland

Form guide

The Warriors had the weekend off in Round 15, but their 10-40 win at Cronulla the previous week cemented them in 3rd. It’s seven wins from their last eight for the Aucklanders, who look a shoo-in for a finals spot.

Don’t rule out the reigning Premiers, Penrith, whose 14-18 win over the Tigers in Round 14 (plus two bye points last week) has lifted them to 9th, just a point off of Finals footy.

Team news

Moala Graham-Taufa comes in for his first NRL game since Round 22 last year as a replacement for Kurt Capewell, who’s being rested after Origin. The Warriors also have Wayde Egan back from injury, which pushes Sam Healey to 18th man.

Warriors team: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Moala Graham-Taufa 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Luke Metcalf 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Marata Niukore 11. Leka Halasima 12. Jacob Laban 13. Erin Clark 14. Te Maire Martin 15. Jackson Ford 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith 18. Samuel Healey 20. Bunty Afoa 21. Tanah Boyd 22. Edward Kosi 23. Eddie Ieremia

Panthers coach Ivan Cleary has been very vocal about resting his Origin stars this week, with the trip to Auckland a trip too far after turning out in Perth on Wednesday night. That means Dylan Edwards, Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Brian To’o and Liam Martin all sit out, but Lindsay Smith is named despite being part of New South Wales’ extended squad. Daine Laurie comes in at fullback, Paul Alamoti is on the wing, Brad Schneider plays at halfback, while Isaiah Papali’i starts in the back row and Matt Eisenhuth comes in at lock. Prop Liam Henry returns from suspension on the bench alongside Trent Toelau, Luron Patea and Luke Garner.

Panthers team: 1. Daine Laurie 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Paul Alamoti 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Brad Schneider 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Matt Eisenhuth 14. Trent Toelau 15. Liam Henry 16. Luron Patea 17. Luke Garner 18. Luke Sommerton 19. Jack Cole 20. Mavrik Geyer 21. Preston Riki 22. Austin Dias 23. Harrison Hassett 24. Jaxen Edgar

My prediction – New Zealand Warriors 30-12 Penrith Panthers

If the Warriors aren’t sniffing blood in this one, they should be. On paper, this should have been arguably the game of the round, but with Penrith missing their Origin stars, this should be a home win nine times out of ten.

Betting tips

Although I’m tipping the Panthers to lose, I still expect them to score some points, so there’s value to be had in the anytime try market. Paul Alamoti is 13/10 and Thomas Jenkins is 11/8. My instinct is to go with Alamoti, but I’m tempted by both.

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Saturday 21st June 2025 – The Dolphins vs Newcastle Knights – HBF Park, Perth

Form guide

The Dolphins have scored 158 points in their past three games, whilst conceding just 18, so it’s fair to say they’ve found their feet under coach Kristian Woolf. That form has sent them soaring into 6th on the ladder, and they’re the competition’s top points scorers.

The Knights on the other hand remain bottom of that particular ladder, and they’re still the only side yet to crack 200 points this year. In the actuall ladder, they sit 15th, and only off the bottom due to points difference following last weekend’s narrow 8-12 defeat to the Roosters.

Team news

The Dolphins have named fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to back up from Origin Two, so Jake Averillo reverts to the centres and Max Feagai drops to the reserves. Felise Kaufusi is suspended, so Mark Nicholls starts and Harrison Graham is added to the bench. Young gun Isaiya Katoa will captain the side for the first time.

Dolphins team: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jack Bostock 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Francis Molo 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Mark Nicholls 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Oryn Keeley 13. Kurt Donoghoe 14. Harrison Graham 15. Connelly Lemuelu 16. Ray Stone 17. Josh Kerr 18. Sean O’Sullivan 19. Max Feagai 20. Aublix Tawha 21. Trai Fuller 22. Peter Hola

The Knights have one huge inclusion as Dom Young returns for a second debut after a season-and-a-half with the Roosters. He comes straight onto the wing, while Bradman Best is back in the centres after injury and Kalyn Ponga is also named at fullback to back up after Origin. Fletcher Sharpe returns in the halves and Tyson Frizell is back in the forward pack, so Brodie Jones goes to the bench. James Schiller drops out of the 17 to make way for Young, while Fletcher Hunt, Kyle McCarthy and Jackson Hastings have dropped to the reserves.

Knights team: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Jack Cogger 8. Tyson Frizell 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Mathew Croker 11. Dylan Lucas 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Phoenix Crossland 14. Brodie Jones 15. Thomas Cant 16. Jermaine McEwen 17. Elijah Leaumoana 18. James Schiller 19. Jackson Hastings 20. Fletcher Hunt 21. Kyle McCarthy 22. Jack Hetherington

My prediction – The Dolphins 42-12 Newcastle Knights

The Knights look much stronger than they have in recent weeks with a number of players returning, but I can’t ignore a Dolphins side with over 150 points in three games. They put 58 on the Cowboys last weekend, and that was without the Hammer.

Betting tips

The Dolphins should be a shoo-in with a -10 handicap, at 10/11. Herbie Farnworth has scored in eight straight games, so the 11/10 for him to score anytime looks very generously priced.

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Saturday 21st June 2025 – South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm – Accor Stadium, Sydney

Form guide

The Rabbitohs’ season is teetering right now with three straight losses coming into this one. In fairness, they’ve usually been in the contest, but there’s no hiding from the fact they’re sitting way down in 14th – albeit, just two points outside the top eight.

By their own standards the Storm have been pretty inconsistent this year, but they picked up back-to-back wins before last week’s bye and they sit comfortably in 4th still.

Team news

Latrell Mitchell has been named to back up from Origin for the Rabbitohs, which is a welcome relief given the Bunnies’ injury woes this year. Jye Gray and Jayden Sullivan are the latest players to pick up knocks, while Keaon Koloamatangi is named in the extended squad but unlikely to feature after suffering a facial fracture last weekend. Cody Walker and Campbell Graham are also in the extended squad as they eye returns from injury, while Davvy Moale comes into the starting side and Sean Keppie joins the bench. There’s a rare start for Englishman Lewis Dodd in the halves too, with the absence of Sullivan.

Rabbitohs team: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Jack Wighton 4. Isaiah Tass 5. Tyrone Munro 6. Lewis Dodd 7. Jamie Humphreys 8. Jai Arrow 9. Siliva Havili 10. Davvy Moale 11. Euan Aitken 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Lachlan Hubner 14. Ryan Gray 15. Sean Keppie 16. Liam Le Blanc 17. Tevita Tatola 18. Salesi Ataata 19. Keaon Koloamatangi 20. Cody Walker 21. Campbell Graham 22. Jacob Host

The Storm have named Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, Trent Loiero, Xavier Coates and Stefano Utoikamanu to back up from Origin, so the only change to the side that beat the Cowboys in Round 14 is Bronson Garlick joining the bench for Ativalu Lisati.

Storm team: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Grant Anderson 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Bronson Garlick 18. Ativalu Lisati 19. Alec MacDonald 20. Sualauvi Faalogo 21. Joe Chan 22. Lazarus Vaalepu 23. Keagan Russell-Smith 24. Kane Bradley

My prediction – South Sydney Rabbitohs 18-32 Melbourne Storm

The Rabbitohs have shown penty of resilience and grit this year, and on their day they can beat anyone. The Storm are just a level above them though, and if they show it on the pitch this weekend then this will only go one way. Much will depend on just how many of Melbourne’s players do make it after their Origin exploits though.

Betting tips

Alex Johnston is closing in on the all-time try scoring record and no one has scored more than him at Accor Stadium, so I’m tipping him for an anytime try, at 10/11. The Storm to win by 13 to 18 points looks a good price too, at 9/2.

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Sunday 22nd June 2025 – Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla Sharks – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Form guide

After just one win in seven, the Broncos finally put in a performance in their last game to see off the Titans, 44-14. That win, coupled with last week’s two bye points, has them up in 7th – one point inside the top eight.

As for the Sharks, they bounced back from a disappointing loss against the Warriors to see off the Dragons, 30-18, last weekend. That win keeps them in 5th – three points inside the finals spots.

Team news

Pat Carrigan and Payne Haas have been named to back up from Origin, by the Broncos. Jack Gosiewski is back from injury and takes the place of Ben Te Kura, who’s ruled out with a syndesmosis injury. Ben Talty is named in the extended squad after arriving on a train and trial deal, while Selwyn Cobbo is also part of the extended squad after two weeks in reserve grade.

Broncos team: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Billy Walters 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Xavier Willison 17. Jack Gosiewski 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Selwyn Cobbo 20. Jaiyden Hunt 21. Deine Mariner 22. Blake Mozer 23. Ben Talty

For the Sharks, Siosifa Talakai moves to the centres to replace the injured Mawene Hiroti, and Daniel Atkinson joins the bench in the only change from last weekend.

Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jesse Colquhoun 16. Toby Rudolf 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 18. Billy Burns 19. Hohepa Puru 20. Niwhai Puru 21. Jayden Berrell 22. Chris Veaila

My prediction – Brisbane Broncos 28-18 Cronulla Sharks

There’s just something about the Broncos at Suncorp that makes it difficult for me to ever go against them. On form, the Sharks are probably the slightly safer option, but if Brisbane click again this week, I can’t see Cronulla containing them.

Betting tips

You can get 20/23 on the Broncos with a -5.5 handicap, which I like the look of. I’m also backing Brisbane to win by 1-12 points, at 2/1.

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Sunday 22nd June 2025 – Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys – Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Form guide

Despite missing five players to Origin last weekend, the Roosters saw off a stubborn Knights side 8-12. That followed a victory over the Sharks in similar circumstances before Origin One, and it bodes well for the Chooks that their fringe players have stepped up to the plate when called upon. Last week’s win has lifted them into the top eight.

The Cowboys are fast heading in the opposite direction, and their 4-58 drubbing at home by the Dolphins leaves them with just one win from the past six. They’re also down to 10th on the ladder, but just a point outside the top eight.

Team news

The Roosters have named all their Origin players to back up, so Robert Toia, Lindsay Collins, Connor Watson, Angus Crichton and Spencer Leniu all return to the side. Toia’s return sees Mark Nawaqanitawase move over to the wing where he replaces the recently-departed Dom Young. Makahesi Makatoa and Taylor Losalu drop out of the 17, while Victor Radley and Egan Butcher have entered the concussion protocols.

Roosters team: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Sandon Smith 7. Hugo Savala 8. Lindsay Collins 9. Connor Watson 10. Naufahu Whyte 11. Angus Crichton 12. Siua Wong 13. Salesi Foketi 14. Benaiah Ioelu 15. Zach Dockar-Clay 16. Blake Steep 17. Spencer Leniu 18. Ethan King 19. Makahesi Makatoa 20. Tom Rodwell 21. Taylor Losalu 22. Chad Townsend 23. Xavier Va’a 24. Jake Elliott

Viliami Vailea and John Bateman return from suspension for the Cowboys. Origin stars Tom Dearden, Reece Robson, Jeremiah Nanai and Reuben Cotter have all been named to back up too. Jason Taumalolo is out with a calf injury, Harrison Edwards and Sam McIntyre shift to the bench, while Kaiden Lahrs and Tom Duffy drop out of the 17.

Cowboys team: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Zac Laybutt 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Jaxon Purdue 7. Tom Dearden 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Harrison Edwards 15. Sam McIntyre 16. Griffin Neame 17. Thomas Mikaele 18. Jake Clifford 19. Karl Lawton 20. Kai O’Donnell 21. Kaiden Lahrs 22. Braidon Burns 23. Thomas Duffy 24. Marly Bitungane

My prediction – Sydney Roosters 20-14 North Queensland Cowboys

I’m backing the Roosters to add to the Cowboys’ misery in this one. North Queensland should be much better than last weekend, but I still think the home side will edge it.

Betting tips

The Roosters are just 4/9 in the outright market, so if you bet on them to win by 1-12 at 2/1, or 13+ at 6/4, you’ll return a much better profit either way – providing they get the job done of course.

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Sunday 22nd June 2025 – Parramatta Eels vs Gold Coast Titans – CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Form guide

The Eels had a bye in Round 15, but back-to-back defeats in their previous two matches see them sitting down in 16th, just off the bottom on points difference ahead of…

…the Titans, whose impressive 28-8 win over Manly last weekend drew them level on points with Parra in their bid to avoid the wooden spoon.

Team news

The Eels will be without both of their first-choice halves – Mitch Moses and Dylan Brown – so Joash Papalii and Dean Hawkins come into the starting side. Zac Lomax has been named to back up from Origin, while Wiremu Greig is on the bench for his first taste of NRL since Round 24 last year.

Eels team: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Zac Lomax 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Joash Papali’i 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Dylan Walker 15. Matt Doorey 16. Wiremu Greig 17. Jordan Samrani 18. Joey Lussick 19. Charlie Guymer 20. Dan Keir 21. Ronald Volkman 22. Samuel Loizou

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Moeaki Fotuaika have been named on the bench for the Titans, who’ll hope to get some minutes out of them following Origin. David Fifita is the 18th man as he eyes a comeback from injury, while Jojo Fifita returns in the centres at the expense of Brian Kelly.

Titans team: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Jojo Fifita 4. Phillip Sami 5. Allan Fitzgibbon 6. Kieran Foran 7. Jayden Campbell 8. Jaimin Jolliffe 9. Sam Verrills 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Chris Randall 12. Beau Fermor 13. Klese Haas 14. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 15. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui 16. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 17. Moeaki Fotuaika 18. David Fifita 19. Tukimihia Simpkins 20. Sean Mullany 21. Tom Weaver 22. Brian Kelly

My prediction – Parramatta Eels 12-16 Gold Coast Titans

This one’s almost too close to call, but after such an impressive win last week I’m backing the Titans tofollow it up with another victory here.

Betting tips

I may end up with egg on my face, but I can see this being a low-scoring game, which means the 8/1 on neither side reaching 20 points is enormous. You can also get 11/10 on neither side reaching 30 points, which should be a bit safer. There’s good value in the winning margin markets either, and with the handicap set at just +2/-2, the bookies clearly see this being a close game. Therefore, the 9/2 on Parra to win by 1-6 and the 4/1 on the Titans to win by the same margin both look overpriced to me. Personally, I’m going on the Titans though.