NRL 2025 – Round 11 preview, predictions and tips
Origin is right around the corner and this weekend marks the last chance for players to stake their claims for a spot in game one on 28th May.
There’s no Thursday night game this week, so the action will kick off between two basement dwellers on Friday night…
Friday 16th May – Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels – McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Form guide
The Knights appeared to have turned a corner two weeks ago with a big win over the Rabbitohs at Magic Round, but last week they blew a 20 point lead against the Titans to leave them with a 3-6 record in 14th. At least their attack has improved though, with 50 points scored in those two games.
The Eels are another side who offered a false dawn recently. After beating the Tigers over Easter, their 16-20 loss against the Dolphins last weekend made it back-to-back losses and they remain bottom.
Team news
Greg Marzhew is ruled out with a knee injury for the Knights, so Fletcher Hunt makes his NRL debut on the wing. Dane Gagai will play his 300th NRL game, while Tyson Frizell replaces Leo Thompson in the front row, who misses out with a head knock. Thomas Cant is back on the bench this week too.
The Eels are boosted by the return of Zac Lomax, who’s available for the first time since Round 5, and just in time for Origin. He replaces Bailey Simonsson, who picked up a foot injury last weekend. Matt Doorey also comes into the side for Charlie Guymer, who misses out altogether. Toni Mataele is in line for his NRL debut from the bench.
My prediction – Newcastle Knights 16-24 Parramatta Eels
I don’t know exactly why, but I have a sneaky suspicion the Eels will win this one. The return of Zac Lomax will be a big boost this week and the Knights could be fragile after blowing a 20-point lead last week.
Betting tips
The Knights are very slight favourites in this one, so an Eels win at 11/10 is where I’d be going. I’m expecting a close game too, so Parra to win by 1-12 points looks tempting at 9/4.
Friday 16th May – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
It was a tale of two halves for the Bulldogs last weekend, as they overturned a 20-0 half-time deficit to win 20-32 in Canberra. That made it 8-1 for the season, as they remain top of the ladder.
The Roosters had the week off in Round 10, after two straight wins. They’re 9th at the moment, with a 4-5 record.
Team news
Jaeman Salmon suffered an ankle injury last week for the Bulldogs, so Harry Hayes comes into the starting side. Luke Smith is in line for an NRL debut off the bench.
Bulldogs team: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Harry Hayes 13. Kurt Mann 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Lipoi Hopoi 17. Luke Smith 19. Jack Underhill 20. Blake Wilson 21. Jake Turpin 22. Drew Hutchison 23. Blake Taaffe
Lindsay Collins is back for the Roosters this week, just in time for Origin. He’s been named on the interchange bench. There’s no other changes for the Chooks, with Dom Young and Chad Townsend still in exile and Brandon SMith now officially departed.
My prediction – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 30-18 Sydney Roosters
The Roosters have picked up a couple of impressive wins in recent weeks, but I can’t see past the Bulldogs in this one. The table toppers have been mightily impressive – particularly in last week’s second half against the Raiders – and they’ll come into this one full of expectation.
Betting tips
The Bulldogs are 7/5 to win by 13+, which looks good to me.In the try scoring market, Stephen Crichton is the best value anytime scorer, at 7/5.
Saturday 17th May – The Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Form guide
The Dolphins picked up a much-needed win last weekend against the Eels -16-20 – but they remain inconsistent. They lost the previous two games following big wins over the Panthers and the Storm in the two weeks before that. They currently sit 12th on the ladder with a 4-6 record.
As for the Warriors, their magnificenr form continued with a narrow 14-15 win over the Dragons last weekend to make it four straight wins. That victory lifted them to 2nd on the ladder with a 7-2 record for the year.
Team news
The Dolphins are unchanged from last week’s 17.
James Fisher-Harris is back for the Warriors this week and goes straight into the starting side. Bunty Afoa drops out of the squad, while Jackson Ford has been ruled out after suffering a concussion in the victory over the Dragons. Youngster Sam Healey is the new face on the bench. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is again on the extended bench as he eyes a return from injury.
Warriors team: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Kurt Capewell 5. Taine Tuaupiki 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Luke Metcalf 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Leka Halasima 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark 14. Te Maire Martin 15. Jacob Laban 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Samuel Healey 18. Eddie Ieremia 20. Tanner Stowers-Smith 21. Tanah Boyd 22. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 23. Moala Graham-Taufa
My prediction – The Dolphins 18-26 New Zealand Warriors
The Dolphins have plenty of points in them, but with the form of these two sides, I can’t see past the Warriors this week. I’m expecting it to be relatively close though.
Betting tips
The Warriors start with just a -1 handicap, so I like the outright win at 5/6. They’re also 21/10 to win by 1-12 and that looks a great price.
Saturday 17th May – North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles – Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Form guide
The Cowboys were involved in the first draw of 2025 last weekend, as they tied 30-30 with the Panthers. Their 4-1-4 record has them sitting 6th on the ladder.
As for Manly, they suffered a 14-30 loss at home to the Sharks – a result that sleaves them just inside the top eight.
Team news
Jake Clifford has been dropped for the Cowboys, with Jaxon Purdue shifting to the halves alongside Tom Dearden. Zac Laybutt comes into the centres for his first NRL match in more than a year after an ACL injury.
Cowboys team: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Zac Laybutt 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Jaxon Purdue 7. Tom Dearden 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Sam McIntyre 14. Harrison Edwards 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Griffin Neame 17. Kai O’Donnell 18. Jake Clifford 19. Thomas Duffy 20. Semi Valemei 21. Karl Lawton 22. Kaiden Lahrs
The Sea Eagles have had a reshuffle with Jake Trbojevic shifting to lock, Jazz Tevaga to hooker and Ethan Bullemoor to prop and Jake Simpkin to the bench. Matt Lodge is back on the extended bench.
Sea Eagles team: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Ethan Bullemor 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Corey Waddell 16. Caleb Navale 17. Nathan Brown 18. Michael Chee Kam 19. Clayton Faulalo 20. Jakob Arthur 21. Joey Walsh 22. Matthew Lodge
My prediction – North Queensland Cowboys 20-12 Manly Sea Eagles
I’m backing the Cowboys to make home advantage count in this one. If Manly are on it, then it could be a different strory, but North Queensland have looked the more consistent side in recent weeks.
Betting tips
The Cowboys are 10/11 with a -2 handicap, which looks a good shout. I’m backing Jeremiah Nanai in the anytime try scorer market, too, at 17/10.
Saturday 17th May – Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm – Sharks Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Sharks made it four wins from their last five in last week’s win over Manly, as they quietly climb the ladder and push for a finals spot. They currently sit 5th, two points clear of the ninth-placed Roosters.
As for the Storm, a top eight spot looks a certainty again, and as expected, they’re challenging for the Minor Premiership too. A 64-0 thumping of the Tigers last weekend was the perfect response to their Magic Round loss to Canberra, as they climbed back into 3rd. They’re the first team to crack 300 points this year too, and they’re averaging over 34 points a game.
Team news
For the Sharks, Sifa Talakai is back from concussion to take a spot on the bench. Tom Hazelton drops out of the 17 with a shoulder injury.
Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Samuel Stonestreet 3. Jesse Ramien 4. KL Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Billy Burns 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jesse Colquhoun 16. Siosifa Talakai 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 18. Hohepa Puru 19. Tuku Hau Tapuha 20. Jayden Berrell 21. Teig Wilton 22. Chris Veaila
Tui Kamikamica replaces Nelson Asofa-Solomona this week for the Storm. Big Nelson is named on the extended bench though, along with Harry Grant, whose return is timely with Origin on the horizon.
Storm team: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Sualauvi Faalogo 3. Grant Anderson 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Bronson Garlick 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Joe Chan 18. Ativalu Lisati 19. Lazarus Vaalepu 20. Kane Bradley 21. Harry Grant 22. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
My prediction – Cronulla Sharks 12-20 Melbourne Storm
I’ve been impressed with Cronulla’s recent form, but when Melbourne click, very few teams can match them. I’d expect Harry Grant to make the matchday 17 as well, and he’ll be a huge boost for the Storm if he does.
Betting tips
I’m not seeing loads of value in this game, but the best bet I can find is on Melbourne to score first and win, at 6/5.
Sunday 18th May – Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Form guide
Serious questions are being asked of the Broncos, whose loss to the Rabbitohs last weekend was their fourth in five games. What makes it all the more remarkable is that the one win in that sequence was a 42-18 demolition of the previously unbeaten Bulldogs. Brisbane are clinging on to their top eight place as it stands, with a 5-5 record heading into the Origin period.
The Dragons were desperately unlucky against the Warriors last weekend as they suffered their third one-point defeat of the year. Those extra six points would have them inside the top four, but as it stands they’re down in 13th with just three wins so far.
Team news
There’s a big boost for Brisbane this week with the return of Ezra Mam from suspension. The five-eighth was available last weekend, but made his return in reserve grade. However, an injury to Ben Hunt as opened the door this week for him to make his NRL comeback after missing the opening 10 rounds.
Blake Lawrie replaces Toby Couchman in the only change from the Dragons’ 17 last weekend.
Dragons team: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Tyrell Sloan 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Corey Allan 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Lyhkan King-Togia 8. Jack de Belin 9. Damien Cook 10. David Klemmer 11. Dylan Egan 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Hamish Stewart 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Luciano Leilua 16. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga 17. Blake Lawrie 18. Nathan Lawson 19. Hame Sele 20. Lachlan Ilias 21. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 22. Michael Molo
My prediction – Brisbane Broncos 30-14 St George Illawarra Dragons
Given the Broncos’ recent form this feels a bit bold, but I still see them as being a far stronger outfit than the Dragons all over the pitch, and especially in the halves.
Betting tips
I’m not seeing loads of value in this game, so I’m going with Deine Mariner to be the first, second or third try scorer at 12/5. He’d be my anytime tip anyway, but at 8/13, it’s not great value, so the chances of him scoring one of the opening three look good.
Sunday 18th May – Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans – GIO Stadium, Canberra
Form guide
The Raiders were brough back down to earth with a bump in last week’s comeback win by the Bulldogs, who overturned a 20-point deficit in the nation’s capital. Still, Canberra sit 4th on the ladder with a 7-3 record.
The Titans have been pretty woeful in 2025 with just three wins to their name. However, one of those came last week in a magnificent comeback win against the Knights, after trailing 20-0. So, maybe they’ve turned a corner…
Team news
Just one change this week for the Raiders, but it’s a big one. Second row Matty Nicholson has been ruled out for 12 weeks, so that opens a space for Corey Horsburgh to return from a head knock. Horsburgh’s named at prop with Zac Hosking shifting to number 12 to cover Nicholson.
Raiders team: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Corey Horsburgh 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Zac Hosking 13. Morgan Smithies 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Josh Papali’i 17. Ata Mariota 18. Jed Stuart 19. Noah Martin 20. Pasami Saulo 21. Trey Mooney 22. Danny Levi
For the Titans, Kieran Foran is available for the first time this year and goes onto the bench. Jaimin Jolliffe will join him following suspension, while Iszac Fa’asuamaleaui is unavailable due to the concussion protocols and Arama Hau is also out of the 17.
Titans team: 1. Jaylan De Groot 2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 3. Brian Kelly 4. Jojo Fifita 5. Phillip Sami 6. AJ Brimson 7. Jayden Campbell 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Klese Haas 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 14. Kieran Foran 15. Jaimin Jolliffe 16. Chris Randall 17. Josiah Pahulu 18. Tony Francis 19. Arama Hau 20. Josh Patston 21. Harley Smith-Shields 22. Sean Mullany
My prediction – Canberra Raiders 30-16 Gold Coast Titans
I can’t see anything other than a home win in this one. The Raiders will be smarting after last weekend’s second half turnaround by the Bulldogs, and even though Gold Coast had their own impressive turnaround, I can’t see them backing it up this week.
Betting tips
The Raiders are 10/11 with a -10 handicap, which I’d be comfortable backing. It’s also 11/10 for them to win by 13+, which I’d also be confident of.
Sunday 18th May – Wests Tigers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Tigers come into this game off the back of a 64-0 hiding in Melbourne last weekend. That loss leaves them 10th on the ladder with a 5-5 record in 2025.
The Rabbitohs have an identical record and sit one place below, after picking up their first win since Round 5 last time out – 22-14 against the Broncos.
Team news
Starford To’a is back after a neck injury for the Tigers. Fonua Pole is missing with a knee injury, so there’s a bit of a reshuffle with Tallyn Da Silva the man to drop out of the 17.
There’s a huge boost for the Rabbitohs this week with Alex Johnston returning from a hamstring injury. He takes Fletcher Myers’ spot on the wing in the only change from last weekend’s 17.
Rabbitohs team: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Bayleigh Bentley-Hape 6. Jayden Sullivan 7. Jamie Humphreys 8. Jai Arrow 9. Siliva Havili 10. Keaon Koloamatangi 11. Euan Aitken 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Lachlan Hubner 14. Jye Gray 15. Sean Keppie 16. Davvy Moale 17. Liam Le Blanc 18. Tevita Tatola 19. Lewis Dodd 20. Josh Schuster 21. Fletcher Myers 22. Jacob Host
My prediction – Wests Tigers 14-16 South Sydney Rabbitohs
I’ll probably end up with egg on my face here, but I have a feeling this will be a really close game. There’s not much between these two sides on current form and this really could go either way. The Tigers will be determined to bounce back from last week’s mauling in Melbourne, while the Rabbitohs will be buoyed by last week’s impressive win over the Broncos.
Betting tips
The bookies clearly agree with me that it’ll be a tight game as both sides arepriced at 10/11. On that basis, the Rabbitohs to win by 1-12 looks a great price at 21/10. I’m getting on Alex Johnston to score an anytime try on his comeback as well, at 5/6.
