State of Origin 2026 – Game two preview, predictions and tips
Origin hits Melbourne this week, with the Blues aiming to seal their 18th series victory before heading to Brisbane for game three. As for Queensland, they’re just loking to level things up and force a decider on home turf as they chase a 25th series victory.
Here’s a closer look at what to expect in game two this week…
Game one recap
A hugely impressive comeback from New South Wales saw the Blues take a 1-0 lead in Sydney.
The Maroons raced into a 20-0 lead after 20 minutes, thanks to tries from Robert Toia, Thomas Flegler and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, plus a Sam Walker penalty.
However, NSW hit back before the break with a try from Hudson Young to trail 20-6 at the break.
The whole game turned on 57 minutes, when Maroons fullback Kalyn Ponga was controversially sent off for a head clash witn Tolu Koula.
The Blues took advantage of their 13 vs 12 situation almost immediately with a try from debutant Ethan Strange to reduce the deficit to 10 points.
Then, two converted tries from Nathan Cleary and James Tedesco in the final 10 minutes sealed the win for NSW, as they scraped a 22-20 victory.
New South Wales squad for game two
Matt Burton and Jacob Saifiti have been axed from the New South Wales squad, with Mitchell Moses and Payne Haas returning from injury. Isaiya Katoa is named as 21st man.
Panthers centre Casey McLean was originally named to start, but injury has ruled him out. Tolutau Koula shifts from the wing to the centres, with Mark Nawaqanitawase named on the wing. The Dolphins’ Jack Bostock is named as a replacement on the bench.
Haumole Olakau’atu has also been dropped to 20th man, with Dylan Lucas to debut in the second-row.
New South Wales players to watch
Mitch Moses will be under pressure to deliver for the Blues after ousting Ethan Strange from the starting side. Strange hardly put a foot wrong in game one, and his try helped turn the tide and start the NSW comeback. With Nathan Cleary steering the side, Moses will be playing the support role this week in the number six jersey.
Dylan Lucas will make his Blues debut in the second row, with Haumole Olakau’atu dropping to 20th man. Lucas has had a great start to the year with the Knights, and recently racked up his 50th appearance in the NRL.
Queensland squad for game two
Queensland have recalled Reece Walsh and Murray Taulagi to the bench for Ezra Mam and the injured Gehamat Shibasaki.
Patrick Carrigan is ruled out, with Kulikefu Finefeuiaki added to the bench, while Briton Nikora starts at second-row, Reuben Cotter shuffles to lock, and Max Plath slides back to the bench.
Queensland players to watch
Although his sending off was somewhat harsh, Kalyn Ponga will feel he owes the Maroons after game one. They looked in control until his dismissal, so he’ll be keen to make up for that, whilst also keeping Reece Walsh at arms length in the battle for the fullback role.
Sam Walker had a strong start to his debut in game one before fading later on. The halfback finished with eight points off the tee and two try assists, but all in the opening 20 minutes. If he can shine like that for the full 80 this week, the Maroons will be in with a great chance of levelling the series.
My prediction
New South Wales 18-24 Queensland
Queensland have to win to keep the series alive, and I can see them doing it. Usually I go for quite low-scoring predictions in Origin, but these two sides have been ripping in and going for it from the off, and that’ll probably be the case again here. I’m expecting the Maroons to make a strong start again this week, and if they keep 13 men on the field, they can see it through.
Betting tips
New South Wales are slight favourites, so I’m going straight for a Queensland win at 11/10.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is also too good to pass up for an anytime try at 5/4. He has 12 in 11 appearances for the Maroons.
As I’m expecting a fast start from Queensland, I’m getting on them to be leading after 10 minutes, at 23/10.
