State of Origin 2025 – Game one preview, prediction and tips

Origin’s back this week, and New South Wales will begin the defence of their 2024 series win with perhaps the toughest assignment possible, at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.

It’s then onto Perth for game two on 18th June, before the series wraps up in Sydney on 9th July, at Accor Stadium.

More on those nearer the time, but first up, let’s dive into game one. Starting with the squads…

Queensland squad for game one

Queensland debutants

Three players are set for their Maroons debuts in game one – Robert Toia, Beau Fermor and Trent Loeiro.

Toia has been one of the bright sparks for the Roosters this year, but even so, his Origin debut after just 10 NRL games comes as a bit of a surprise. That record puts him level with Payne Haas as the Origin debutant with the fewest first grade appearances.

It’s been a much longer route to the Origin arena for Fermor, who made his NRL debut for the Titans back in 2020. The second row has since gone on to make 78 appearances for his club and his call-up is just reward for a strong start to the year.

As for Loeiro, he’s into his fifth season as a first grade player with Melbourne Storm, and last year he was named in the Maroon’s extended squad for games two and three without making it into the matchday 17.

Queensland absentees

The Maroons are missing a few players through injury, who would’ve more than likely made the squad this week. Reece Walsh, Murray Taulagi, Ben Hunt and Tom Gilbert all fall into that category.

The absence of Selwyn Cobbo, meanwhile, is an intriguing one. Offically, he’s been ruled out with a wrist injury, but some reports claim he’s available and his omission is due to him and coach Billy Slater not seeing eye-to-eye. Only those two know the full truth, but if he lines up for the Broncos at the weekend, we may be a little closer to discovering the truth.

Other players who could be classed as notable absentees include Kurt Capewell, Dane Gagai and Corey Horsburgh. All were available for selection, but coach Slater has opted against picking them for game one.

New South Wales squad for game one

New South Wales debutants

Max King is the only player set to make his Blues debut this week. It’s just reward for a stellar start to the year with the ladder-leading Bulldogs for 28-year-old King, who’ll start on the bench.

Elsewhere, Campbell Graham could come into the starting side for his Origin debut as well, if Stephen Crichton fails to make it. Crichton’s been nursing a groin injury in recent weeks and failed to complete training on Monday. He’ll be given every opportunity to prove his fitness, but if he does pull out then Graham’s primed and ready.

New South Wales absentees

With a bigger pool of players to choose from than his Queensland counterpart, the missing players from Blues coach Laurie Daley’s squad will always provide more talking points than they do with the Maroons.

With Dylan Edwards holding onto the number one jersey, there’s no place for James Tedesco, Tom Trbojevic or Ryan Papenhuyzen.

Papenhuyzen’s absence isn’t a huge surprise given that he’s never played for his state, but his form has certainly made him worthy of a call-up.

As for Tedesco, he played the opener last year after Dylan Edwards was ruled out with injury, but the Penrith man was back for games two and three. Still, in terms of club form this year, Tedesco has looked the stronger.

Trbojevic, meanwhile, is still working his way back to full fitness – at least that’s the reason given by coach Daley for his omission, although with Tommy Turbo having lined up in the centres for his state previously, it’s still a bit surprising that he’s not been picked, given his versatility.

The other big talking point was who would partner Nathan Cleary in the halves. Mitchell Moses has got the nod over Jarome Luai, despite Luai’s strong partnership with Cleary at club level, plus the fact Moses will be out of position.

Jake Trbojevic is also missing, due to concussion protocols. The Manly forward’s spot in the squad was in doubt anyway due to form, but the decision was taken out of his hands by an unfortunate head knock.

There was also no first Blues call-up for prop Terrell May, who’s had a superb start to the year with new club Wests Tigers. Don’t be surprised to see him come in later in the series though.

Last year’s series

New South Wales were 2-1 victors in 2024, bouncing back from a record-breaking defeat in game one.

That 10-38 loss was Queensland’s biggest ever win in Sydney, but debutant Joseph Sua’ali’i’s sending off after eight minutes played a huge part in the outcome.

The Blues roared back in game two, beating the Maroons 38-18 in Melbourne. Again, the scoreline doesn’t tell the full story though – NSW were 34-0 up at half-time, which was a record for an Origin match.

That victory set up a series decider on enemy territory, and a much tighter affair saw the Blues get the job done in Brisbane, with a 4-14 win.

The coaches

This will be Queensland coach Billy Slater’s fourth series at the helm. The legendary fullback is joint-ninth in the Maroons’ all-time appearance chart with 31 games under his belt, but this is his first coaching role. He’s won 5/9 games as coach, which includes two series wins, before defeat in 2024.

New South Wales coach Laurie Daley will begin his second stint in charge of the Blues this week, having coached them previously from 2013 to 2017. He won 6/15 games in his first spell at the helm, which included just one series win in 2014 and a record-breaking 52-6 loss the following year.

Notable stats

• Queensland have won six of the last eight games at Suncorp Stadium
• Daly Cherry-Evans will become Origin’s oldest ever player at 36 years and 97 days
• The Maroons have won five of the last series openers
• Every Blues player has played over 100 NRL games
• Maroons centre, Robert Toia, will make his Origin debut after just 10 first grade games – a joint record

My prediction

Queensland 20-14 New South Wales

I never like to go against the Maroons at Suncorp and I’m not going to start now. Granted, they lost the decider here last year, but the Blues haven’t won back-to-back games in Brisbane since 1997-1998, and I’m not backing them to break that duck now.

This is Origin though, and it’s notoriously unpredictable.

Betting tips

The Blues are odds-on favourites, so I’m jumping straight on Queensland at 11/8.

In the try scoring market, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has a ridiculous record in the Origin arena, with nine tries in seven games, including a hat-trick in last year’s series opener. On that basis, the 6/4 on him to cross anytime is very well priced.

As I’m backing the Maroons to win, it’s only logical that the man of the match will go to one of the home players as well. Cameron Munster would be my tip, at 12/1.