NRL 2026 – Round 12 preview, predictions and tips
I was going to talk about the excitement of last weekend’s Magic Round and the return of Origin next week, but it all pales into insignificance after the news that broke earlier regarding Jai Arrow.
In case you missed it, the Rabbitohs forward has been forced to retire immediately due to an MND diagnosis. I wish him nothing but the best and hope he’s getting all the support he needs.
There is still a reduced round of NRL fixtures to be played this weekend, so here’s how I see it going…
*All odds are taken from Paddy Power and correct at time of writing on 20th May 2026.
Thursday 21st May – Canberra Raiders vs The Dolphins
Form guide
The Raiders had a bye last weekend, but their 30-18 loss to the Panthers in the previous round means they’re 4-6 for the year. They sit 12th on the ladder.
The Dolphins have found some form recently, and their 32-10 win over the Rabbitohs last week was their third victory in a row. They’ve climbed into the top eight off the back of it.
Team news
The Raiders are missing Ethan Strange and Hudson Young to Origin, while Simi Sasagi is injured. Daine Laurie comes into the starting side, Zac Hosking returns from concussion and Xavier Savage is back on the wing too. Jordan Uta will make his NRL debut off the bench if called upon.
Raiders team: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Sebastian Kris 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Xavier Savage 6. Daine Laurie 7. Ethan Sanders 8. Corey Horsburgh 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Ata Mariota 12. Zac Hosking 13. Jayden Brailey 14. Owen Pattie 15. Jordan Uta 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Jed Stuart 18. Chevy Stewart 19. Jake Clydsdale 20. Coby Black 21. Vena Patuki-Case 22. Ethan Alaia
For the Dolphins, Trai Fuller, Tevita Naufahu, Francis Molo and Jeremy Marshall-King come in for Origin stars Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Selwyn Cobbo, Thomas Flegler and Max Plath. Kodi Nikorima is ruled out, so Brad Schneider takes his place in the halves. Oryn Keeley joins the bench.
*Late mail* – Herbie Farnworth will also be missing, having been named at centre earlier this week.
My prediction – Canberra Raiders 18-30 The Dolphins
With so many players missing to Origin, this is a tough one to call. I’m sticking with my gut and backing the in-form Dolphins though. They still have some of their biggest names available, and they’re on a good run, so I can see them doing the business here.
Betting tips
Canberra are favourites, so I’m straight on a Dolphins win at 13/10. I’ll also back Jack Bostock for an anytime try. He’s been in great form since coming back from injury, and 11/10 is too good to pass up.
Friday 22nd May – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Melbourne Storm
Form guide
You’d have got long odds on this being 14th vs 13th in Round 12, but that’s where we are, with both sides struggling.
The Bulldogs’ 38-16 loss to the Sharks last week was their fifth in a row. Melbourne, meanwhile, appear to have turned a corner. After seven straight losses, they’ve won their last two, and they saw off the Eels at Magic Round in a 34-8 victory.
Team news
Jacob Kiraz is back for the Bulldogs, and he takes the place of Origin-bound Stephen Crichton in a reshuffled backline.
Melbourne are missing Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Trent Loiero to Origin, so Keagan Russell-Smith, Trent Toelau and Cooper Clarke come into the starting line-up. Alec MacDonald is back on the bench after injury, while Gabriel Satrick will make his NRL debut off the bench.
Storm team: 1. Sua Fa’alogo 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Moses Leo 6. Keagan Russell-smith 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Trent Toelau 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Ativalu Lisati 13. Cooper Clarke 14. Gabriel Satrick 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Davvy Moale 17. Stanley Huen 18. Joe Chan 19. Manaia Waitere 20. Jack Hetherington 21. Josiah Pahulu 22. Preston Conn
My prediction – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 20-12 Melbourne Storm
Ordinarily I wouldn’t be tipping the Bulldogs on current form, but Melbourne are missing too many big names for me to back them this week.
Betting tips
I’m happy to back the Bulldogs with a -2 handicap at 10/11. Sua Fa’alogo is 5/6 for an anytime try for Melbourne, which seems too good to miss given his form this year.
Saturday 23rd May – St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors
Form guide
The Dragons were spirited against Penrith last weekend, but ultimately came up short in a 28-6 loss. They remain winless with 10/10 defeats.
The Warriors are flying, with their 42-12 demolition of the Broncos seeing them cement 2nd spot on the ladder. They’re on a five-game winning streak.
Team news
Moses Suli is ruled out for the Dragons, so Jaydn Su’A comes straight in for him after suspension. Tyrell Sloan is back on the bench after injury.
The Warriors are without Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell to Origin duty, while Tanah Boyd suffered an ACL injury last week which will likely rule him out for the rest of 2026. Te Maire Martin replaces him in the halves, while Jackson Ford and Jacob Laban come into the starting side. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava, Luke Hanson and Marata Niukore join the six-man bench.
My prediction – St George Illawarra Dragons 10-24 New Zealand Warriors
The Dragons have to win a game at some point, but despite the Warriors missing a few players this week, I still can’t see the first victory coming here.
Betting tips
I like the look of the Warriors to score first, lead at half-time and win, which is 5/6. They’re also 6/5 to be leading after 10 minutes, which is worth a punt.
Saturday 23rd May – Manly Sea Eagles vs Gold Coast Titans
Form guide
Manly’s thrashing of the Tigers at Magic Round made it six wins from their last seven games, and they’ve jumped into the top four.
Nothing much changes for the Titans, whose 36-12 loss to the Knights last week was a fourth in a row. They remain 16th.
Team news
Manly are missing Tolu Koula and Haumole Olakau’atu to Origin, while Lehi Hopoate is suspended. Josh Feledy, Blake Wilson, Jackson Shereb and Brandon Wakeham come into the starting side, while Hugo Hart and Simione Laiafi join the bench. If Hart comes on, it’ll be his NRL debut.
The Titans have Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Jojo Fifita unavailable due to Origin, so Klese Haas and Jaylan de Groot are named to start. Lachlan Ilias, Bodhi Sharpley and Adam Christensen join the bench.
My prediction – Manly Sea Eagles 38-12 Gold Coast Titans
Despite missing a couple of players to Origin, I still fancy Manly to do the job convincingly here. The Titans are missing a couple of players too, and they’ve been pretty woeful so far in 2026.
Betting tips
Manly should be comfortable with a -12 handicap at 10/11. Josh Feledy is also good value for an anytime try at 6/4.
Sunday 24th May – North Queensland Cowboys vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Form guide
The Cowboys picked up a gutsy 18-12 win over the Roosters at Magic Round to remain 7th on the ladder.
The Rabbitohs were disappointing in their 32-10 loss to the Dolphins, but they remain in 5th.
Team news
Jason Taumalolo returns for the Cowboys in place of Origin star Reuben Cotter. Braidon Burns is ruled out, so Robert Derby comes in on the wing. Viliami Vailea and Kai O’Donnell join the bench.
The Rabbitohs welcome back Alex Johnston, which is timely with Latrell Mitchell and Campbell Graham ruled out. Latrell Siegwalt comes in for his second appearance and Talanoa Penitani will make his NRL debut. Peter Mamouzelos is also back in the side, and Adam Elliott starts in place of Origin-bound Cam Murray. Jamie Humphreys is back on the bench after injury, and he’s joined by Ed Kosi, who drops out of the starting side.
Rabbitohs team: 1. Jye Gray 2. Alex Johnston 3. Latrell Siegwalt 4. Tallis Duncan 5. Talanoa Penitani 6. Cody Walker 7. Ashton Ward 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Peter Mamouzelos 10. Sean Keppie 11. Euan Aitken 12. Keaon Koloamatangi 13. Adam Elliott 14. Matthew Dufty 15. Lachlan Hubner 16. Jamie Humphreys 17. Liam Le Blanc 18. Thomas Fletcher 19. Edward Kosi 20. Moala Graham-Taufa 21. Bronson Garlick 22. John Radel
My prediction – North Queensland Cowboys 30-16 South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Rabbitohs have a few absentees this week, and I can see that being a problem for them. The Cowboys have a couple missing of their own, but I still expect them to have too much at home.
Betting tips
The Cowboys should be safe with a -2 handicap at 10/11. I think they’ll win by double digits too, so the 13+ winning margin is tempting at 11/5.
