NRL 2025 – Round 23 preview, predictions and tips
It’s Indigenous Round this week in the NRL, and there are some huge games to look forward to, starting with a blockbuster in Melbourne…
- Thursday 7th August – Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – AAMI Park, Melbourne
- Friday 8th August – Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers – McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
- Friday 8th August – Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles – GIO Stadium, Canberra
- Saturday 9th August – St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks – Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
- Saturday 9th August – The Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
- Saturday 9th August – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors – Accor Stadium, Sydney
- Sunday 10th August – Gold Coast Titans vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
- Sunday 10th August- Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys – CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Thursday 7th August – Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – AAMI Park, Melbourne
Form guide
Melbourne did what they had to in Round 22, with a 10-16 win at an ever-improving Parramatta. That made it eight wins from nine for the Storm, who were the only side in the top four to win last weekend. The victory also lifted them up into 2nd.
The Broncos bounced back from a surprise home defeat in Round 21 to hammer the Rabbitohs 60-14 in Round 22. That victory keeps Brisbane in 6th, with a four-point gap to the 9th-placed Roosters.
Team news
Trent Loiero returns for Melbourne after being rested last week, so Bronson Garlick drops out of the 17.
Storm team: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Grant Anderson 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tyran Wishart 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Jonah Pezet 15. Ativalu Lisati 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Joe Chan 18. Kane Bradley 19. Bronson Garlick 20. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown 21. Alec MacDonald 22. Lazarus Vaalepu
Payne Haas returns for Brisbane this week, and it’s a timely comeback as Xavier Willison is ruled out with a broken arm.
Broncos team: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Ben Hunt 10. Payne Haas 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Billy Walters 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Ben Talty 17. Jaiyden Hunt 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Jesse Arthars 20. Cory Paix 21. Josiah Karapani 22. Va’a Semu
My prediction – Melbourne Storm 26-18 Brisbane Broncos
I’m expecting the Storm to lift for a game with another Premiership contender this week. The Broncos have hit form recently (aside from their loss to the Eels), but a win in the Victorian capital could be just out of reach.
Betting tips
I’m backing Melbourne to win by 1-12 points, at 15/8. If you want to cover yourself, it’s 13/8 for them to win by 13+, so as long as they get the job done you’ll make a profit either way.
Friday 8th August – Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers – McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Form guide
The Knights had a bye in Round 22, but their 44-18 loss against Canberra the previous week was their fourth in a row. Newcastle currently sit 14th, with nothing but pride to play for now.
Penrith’s march towards a Finals spot continued in Round 22, but they only just squeezed past the Titans in a 26-30 thriller. Still, that made it eight straight wins for the Panthers, who are just a single point behind the 4th-placed Warriors.
Team news
Newcastle welcome Bradman Best back into the team, while Jake Arthur will make his club debut in the halves. Tyson Gamble, Jackson Hastings and Jack Hetherington have all dropped out of the 17, with Thomas Cant and Elijah Salesa Leaumoana joining the bench.
Knights team: 1. Dane Gagai 2. Dominic Young 3. Fletcher Hunt 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jakob Arthur 7. Jack Cogger 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Phoenix Crossland 14. Thomas Cant 15. Mathew Croker 16. Tyson Frizell 17. Elijah Leaumoana 18. Tyson Gamble 19. Jackson Hastings 20. Kyle McCarthy 21. Jack Hetherington 22. Matthew Arthur
Skipper Isaah Yeo is missing for the Panthers, but Scott Sorensen returns and will join the bench. Luron Patea is ruled out through injury.
Panthers team: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Luke Garner 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaiah Papali’i 14. Brad Schneider 15. Liam Henry 16. Matt Eisenhuth 17. Scott Sorensen 18. Paul Alamoti 19. Jack Cole 20. Daine Laurie 21. Mavrik Geyer 22. Luke Sommerton
My prediction – Newcastle Knights 10-24 Penrith Panthers
The Panthers should have far too much for a Knights side whose season has been petering out for weeks.
Betting tips
Casey McLean has been doing the business for me recently and I’m backing him again in the anytime try market at 7/5. I also like the look of the Knights to score under 15.5 points, at 1/1.
Friday 8th August – Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles – GIO Stadium, Canberra
Form guide
The Raiders suffered a surprise slip-up in their last outing, as they went down 18-12 to the Dragons. That followed a run of nine straight wins, but they remain top of the ladder.
As for Manly, the inconsistency that has dogged their season continued last weekend. After winning so impressively in Melbourne in Round 20, they’ve lost their last two – scoring just eight points in the process. Last week’s 4-20 defeat at home to the Roosters means their Finals hopes are hanging by a thread.
Team news
The Raiders have picked the same 17 that faced the Dragons last weekend.
Raiders team: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jed Stuart 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Zac Hosking 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Ata Mariota 18. Noah Martin 19. Danny Levi 20. Manaia Waitere 21. Trey Mooney 22. Ethan Sanders
Tom Trbojevic goes back to fullback for Manly with Lehi Hopoate ruled out. Tommy Talau comes into the starting side and Aaron Schoupp joins the bench. Michael Chee Kam comes into the side for his first game of the year with Ben Trbojevic ruled out due to concussion.
Sea Eagles team: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Tommy Talau 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Matthew Lodge 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Corey Waddell 12. Michael Chee Kam 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Aaron Schoupp 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Toafofoa Sipley 18. Caleb Navale 19. Clayton Faulalo 20. Simione Laiafi 21. Joey Walsh 22. Gordon Chan Kum Tong
My prediction – Canberra Raiders 24-16 Manly Sea Eagles
The Raiders have won nine out of 10 at home this year and they won’t be in any mood to weaken their grip on the Minor Premiership. I’d expect more from Manly in attack than the last two weeks, but I can’t see it being enough against the green machine.
Betting tips
The Raiders should be ok with a -6 handicap, which is 10/11. Canberra haven’t led at half-time in any of their past three games, so the 13/1 on them to be level at the break then win after 80 minutes looks big at 13/1.
Saturday 9th August – St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks – Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Dragons picked up a huge win over Canberra in Round 22, as they beat the ladder leaders 18-12. The win lifted them up to 11th, but they’re six points off the top eight, which looks out of reach.
As for the Sharks, they cruised past the Cowboys 32-12 to make it four straight victories. Their purple patch has come at just the right time and they have a four-point cushion inside the top eight.
Team news
The Dragons are unchanged from 1-17 this week.
Dragons team: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Tyrell Sloan 3. Moses Suli 4. Mathew Feagai 5. Corey Allan 6. Lyhkan King-Togia 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Emre Guler 9. Damien Cook 10. David Klemmer 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Michael Molo 13. Jack de Belin 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Hamish Stewart 16. Hame Sele 17. Blake Lawrie 18. Hayden Buchanan 19. Ben Murdoch-Masila 20. Lachlan Ilias 21. Jacob Halangahu 22. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga
Just one change for the Sharks. Toby Rudolf is back from a concussion, and he replaces the suspended Jesse Colquhoun.
Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Toby Rudolf 16. Thomas Hazelton 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 18. Billy Burns 19. Mawene Hiroti 20. Hohepa Puru 21. Jayden Berrell 22. Samuel Stonestreet
My prediction – St George Illawarra Dragons 14-22 Cronulla Sharks
I can see the Dragons giving this a good go, but the Sharks should have a little too much for them, especially given their current form.
Betting tips
Tyrell Sloan has six tries in his last five games for the Dragons, so I’m tipping him for an anytime try. It’s only 8/11, but he’s quite comfortably their likeliest threat. You can also get 6/5 on Ronaldo Mulitalo to score a try and Cronulla to win, which looks like a tasty double.
Saturday 9th August – The Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Form guide
The Dolphins snatched a late win in Auckland last week to beat the Warriors, 18-20. That victory keeps them in 8th heading into this weekend – two points clear of this week’s opponents and with a far superior points difference.
As for the Roosters, they saw off Manly, 4-20, to keep themselves firmly in the running for Finals footy. Every week looks do-or-die for them now though, so they need to back it up with a win here.
Team news
Herbie Farnworth is ruled out for the Dolphins, so Tevita Naufahu comes in. Felise Kaufusi is suspended, but Kulikefu Finefuiaki is back from injury.
Dolphins team: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Max Feagai 4. Tevita Naufahu 5. Jake Averillo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Francis Molo 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Mark Nicholls 11. Connelly Lemuelu 12. Oryn Keeley 13. Kurt Donoghoe 14. Ray Stone 15. Aublix Tawha 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Josh Kerr 18. Harrison Graham 19. Peter Hola 20. LJ Nonu 21. Kenny Bromwich 22. Trai Fuller
The Roosters have named the same 17 who ran out last weekend. Victor Radley was a late inclusion in that game, but he’s named to start this week.
Roosters team: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Hugo Savala 7. Sam Walker 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley 14. Benaiah Ioelu 15. Egan Butcher 16. Salesi Foketi 17. Spencer Leniu 18. Ethan King 19. Blake Steep 20. Sandon Smith 21. Makahesi Makatoa 22. Zach Dockar-Clay
My prediction – The Dolphins 24-20 Sydney Roosters
If you only watch one game this weekend, make it this one. These two sides should serve up a classic and it feels like a must-win for the Chooks. I think the Dolphins will edge it with their home advantage though.
Betting tips
The Roosters have a -1 handicap, which shows how tight this is expected to be. With that in mind, I’m getting on the Dolphins in the outright market at 11/10. I’m going to back the Dolphins to win by 1-12 points as well, which is 23/10.
Saturday 9th August – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Bulldogs suffered a surprise 28-14 loss to the Wests Tigers in Round 22, which meant they dropped a place to 3rd. They remain two points behind ladder leaders, Canberra, who also lost, but the Storm have wedged themselves between them in the battle for the Minor Premiership.
Meanwhile, the Warriors’ recent wobbles continued as they lost a second-straight home game. It could have gone either way in fairness, but the Dolphins sneaked past them, 18-20. The loss leaves the New Zealanders looking anxiously over their shoulder in the battle for the top four with Penrith just one point behind.
Team news
The Bulldogs are unchanged from 1-17, although Lachlan Galvin is a doubt. If he is ruled out, it’ll be interesting to see whether Toby Sexton is recalled or if teen superstar Mitchell Woods will make his NRL debut.
Bulldogs team: 1. Jacob Kiraz 2. Jethro Rinakama 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Enari Tuala 6. Matt Burton 7. Lachlan Galvin 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon 14. Kurt Mann 15. Harry Hayes 16. Josh Curran 17. Bailey Hayward 19. Mitchell Woods 20. Blake Wilson 21. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 22. Kurtis Morrin 23. Toby Sexton
Chanel Harris-Tavita returns for the Warriors and goes straight into the starting side at the expense of Te Maire Martin. James Fisher-Harris could make an injury comeback after being named on the extended bench.
Warriors team: 1. Taine Tuaupiki 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Marata Niukore 9. Samuel Healey 10. Jackson Ford 11. Leka Halasima 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Erin Clark 14. Te Maire Martin 15. Eddie Ieremia 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith 18. Freddy Lussick 21. Edward Kosi 22. Kayliss Fatialofa 23. James Fisher-Harris 25. Bunty Afoa
My prediction – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 20-12 New Zealand Warriors
I can see the Bulldogs bouncing back with a win this week. The Warriors have lost four of their past six games and I can see them dropping out of the top four this weekend.
Betting tips
Jacob Kiraz has four tries in his last three games, so I like the look of him to score anytime at 11/10. I’m also getting behind the Warriors to score 11-20 points, at 6/5. That’s happened in five of their past six games.
Sunday 10th August – Gold Coast Titans vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Form guide
The Titans have shown signs of life in recent weeks, and they were desperately unlucky to lose 26-30 at home to the Panthers in Golden Point last weekend. They remain 16th though, and level on points with…
the Rabbitohs. Their 60-14 loss to Brisbane last week made it nine defeats in a row, and a defeat this weekend could just about confirm the wooden spoon for the Bunnies.
Team news
Phil Sami is ruled out for the Titans with concussion, so Alofiana Khan-Pereira comes back into the side. Chris Randall is also back, which means Tom Weaver drops out of the 17.
Titans team: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Jaylan De Groot 3. Brian Kelly 4. Jojo Fifita 5. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 6. Kieran Foran 7. Jayden Campbell 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. Chris Randall 12. Beau Fermor 13. Klese Haas 14. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 15. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 16. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui 17. Josh Patston 18. Arama Hau 19. Tom Weaver 20. Tukimihia Simpkins 21. Tony Francis 22. Ryan Foran
Lewis Dodd’s Rabbitohs career is all but over after just six NRL appearances. The halfback has been left out completely this week and been told he’s free to look elsewhere. Jamie Humphreys and Peter Mamouzelos are welcome returns from concussion, while Brandon Smith’s back in the 17 after suffering a knee injury on his debut. Latrell Mitchell could also make a welcome return as he’s in the extended squad. Ryan Gray and Tyrone Munro are cut from last week’s 17, alongside Dodd.
Rabbitohs team: 1. Jye Gray 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Tallis Duncan 5. Bayleigh Bentley-Hape 6. Ashton Ward 7. Jamie Humphreys 8. Jai Arrow 9. Siliva Havili 10. Sean Keppie 11. Euan Aitken 12. Jacob Host 13. Lachlan Hubner 14. Peter Mamouzelos 15. Liam Le Blanc 16. Brandon Smith 17. Thomas Fletcher 18. Tyrone Munro 19. Talanoa Penitani 20. Salesi Ataata 21. Shaquai Mitchell 22. Latrell Mitchell
My prediction – Gold Coast Titans 16-26 South Sydney Rabbitohs
I should stress, this prediction’s based on Latrell Mitchell being back for Souths. If he’s in the team, they’re an entirely different prospect, but either way, I can see the Titans causing them some problems.
Betting tips
The Titans have been given a -7 handicap, so I’m getting straight on the Bunnies in the outright market, at 15/8. Alofiana Khan-Pereira is just 2/5 for an anytime try, so I’m backing him to be either the first, second or third tryscorer instead, at 2/1.
Sunday 10th August- Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys – CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Eels were strong in defeat against Melbourne in Round 22, eventually going down 10-16 at home. They remain down in 15th, but recent performances have been quite encouraging for Parra, who have all eyes on next season.
The Cowboys are in a similar boat, and last week’s 32-12 loss at Cronulla means it’s just three wins in 13 games for the side sitting in 13th.
Team news
Sean Russell and Sam Tuivaiti are out for the Eels, so Jordan Samrani and Kelma Tuilagi come into the 17.
Eels team: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Zac Lomax 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Jordan Samrani 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dean Hawkins 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Luca Moretti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Kelma Tuilagi 18. Ronald Volkman 19. Dan Keir 20. Haze Dunster 21. Toni Mataele 22. Dylan Brown
Jason Taumalolo, Jake Clifford, Viliami Vailea and Thomas Mikaele are all back this week for the Cowboys in a big boost. Robert Derby and Griffin Neame are both ruled out though.
Cowboys team: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Zac Laybutt 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Braidon Burns 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 8. Harrison Edwards 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Marly Bitungane 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Kai O’Donnell 17. Coen Hess 18. Jaxson Paulo 19. Semi Valemei 20. Nicholas Lenaz 21. Jamal Shibasaki 22. Kaiden Lahrs
My prediction – Parramatta Eels 30-18 North Queensland Cowboys
With both sides having nothing to play for other than pride, I’m expecting a fairly high-scoring contest. I’m backing the Eels to get the job done though, given their recent improvement in form. The Cowboys, on the other hand, look like a team already on the beach.
Betting tips
I’m happy tipping the Eels with a -4 handicap at 10/11. I’m getting on them in the race to 20 points market as well, which is 4/6.
