NRL 2025 – Round 22 preview, predictions and tips

Can you believe it’s August already this weekend? The competition’s really hotting up now, and everyone from the Cowboys and below looks done to me, barring some late miracle run. Even that might not be enough though.

This week could see one or two sides completely drop out of contention, while some teams, like the Rabbitohs, are just playing for pride at this point.

*This week’s tips are from Paddy Power, and correct at time of writing on 30th July 2025.

Thursday 31st July – Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm – CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Form guide

The Eels pulled off a surprise 20-22 win in Brisbane last weekend to record a first win since Round 16 and climb up to 14th on the ladder. The top eight’s not going to happen, but with Mitch Moses back they look more than capable of avoiding the wooden spoon at least.

Melbourne bounced back from a surprise home loss to Manly in Round 20 to beat the Roosters 30-34 last time out. That victory keeps them in 3rd heading into this weekend – four points behind ladder leaders Canberra.

Team news

The Eels have named an unchanged 17 from the side that beat Brisbane last week. Kelma Tuilagi is available again after suspension, but is only named in the extended squad.

Eels team: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Zac Lomax 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dean Hawkins 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Luca Moretti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Sam Tuivaiti 18. Jordan Samrani 19. Kelma Tuilagi 20. Bailey Simonsson 21. Toni Mataele 22. Dylan Brown

Melbourne welcome back two of their big guns in Ryan Papenhuyzen and Cameron Munster, but Jahrome Hughes is out with a shoulder injury suffered last weekend. Kane Bradley drops to 18th man and Trent Loiero is rested, so Jonah Pezet comes into the 17.

Storm team: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Grant Anderson 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tyran Wishart 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Tui Kamikamica 14. Jonah Pezet 15. Ativalu Lisati 16. Bronson Garlick 17. Joe Chan 18. Kane Bradley 19. Alec MacDonald 20. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown 21. Josiah Pahulu 22. Lazarus Vaalepu

My prediction – Parramatta Eels 14-26 Melbourne Storm

Parramatta’s impressive performance against the Broncos last week means I won’t be taking them too lightly, especially with Mitch Moses back in the side and in form. However, I still can’t see past Melbourne, even with Jahrome Hughes out.

Betting tips

I’m backing Ryan Papenhuyzen to return with an anytime try, at 11/10. I’m getting on the Eels to score under 17.5 points as well, which is 1/1.

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Friday 1st August – New Zealand Warriors vs The Dolphins – Go Media Stadium, Auckland

Form guide

The Warriors suffered a shock 16-24 loss at home to the Titans in Round 21. They remain 4th on the ladder, although reigning Premiers Penrith are now just three points behind them.

The Dolphins had their final bye of the year in Round 21, and the two points they picked up were enough to move them up to 8th with Manly and the Roosters both losing. Their previous game was a 43-24 win over the Cowboys in Round 19.

Team news

Te Maire Martin replaces the injured Chanel Harris-Tavita for the Warriors, who are also missing James Fisher-Harris. Demitric Vaimauga is his replacement, while Wayde Egan is also missing due to concussion, which means a starting spot for Sam Healey. Freddy Lussick and Taine Tauapiki join the bench.

Warriors team: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Kurt Capewell 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Tanah Boyd 8. Demitric Vaimauga 9. Samuel Healey 10. Jackson Ford 11. Leka Halasima 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark 14. Taine Tuaupiki 15. Jacob Laban 16. Freddy Lussick 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith 18. Eddie Ieremia 20. Bunty Afoa 21. Edward Kosi 22. Kalani Going 23. Makaia Tafua

The Dolphins welcome back Kodi Nikorima, Felise Kaufusi and Mark Nicholls. Aublix Tawha shifts to the bench and Harrison Graham and Peter Hola drop out.

Dolphins team: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Max Feagai 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Jake Averillo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Francis Molo 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Felise Kaufusi 11. Connelly Lemuelu 12. Oryn Keeley 13. Kurt Donoghoe 14. Ray Stone 15. Aublix Tawha 16. Mark Nicholls 17. Josh Kerr 18. Harrison Graham 19. Peter Hola 20. LJ Nonu 21. Kenny Bromwich 22. Tevita Naufahu

My prediction – New Zealand Warriors 14-20 The Dolphins

This could be one of the tastiest fixtures of the round, and while I would normally go for a 4th-placed side against one in 8th, the Warriors’ shock loss to the Titans last week, plus the Dolphins’ impressive recent form has me just leaning towards the away side.

Betting tips

The Dolphins actually come into this game as slight favourites, but the 4/6 for them to win in the outright market still looks to be good value. I’m expecting a close game, so I like the look of the Dolphins to win by 1-12 points as well, which is 21/10.

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Friday 1st August- Brisbane Broncos vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Form guide

The Broncos also suffered a shock home loss in Round 21, as the Eels beat them 20-22 at Suncorp. Instead of looking to climb into the top four, the defeat has Brisbane looking nervously over their shoulder as they slipped down to 6th – just two points clear of the chasing pack.

The Rabbitohs dropped to the bottom of the ladder last weekend and suffered an eight straight defeat in the process, but that doesn’t tell the full story. In one of the gutsiest perfromances you’ll see from any side this year they pushed the Sharks all the way, but ultimately lost 12-14 in Gosford.

Team news

Michael Maguire has swung the axe on his Broncos wingers with Jesse Arthars and Josiah Karapani dropping out for Selwyn Cobbo and Deine Mariner. The rest of the 17 remains unchanged. Ben Hunt will play his 200th game for the Broncos.

Broncos team: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Xavier Willison 9. Ben Hunt 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Billy Walters 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Corey Jensen 17. Jack Gosiewski 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Jesse Arthars 20. Ben Talty 21. Josiah Karapani 22. Jaiyden Hunt

The Rabbitohs have dropped Lewis Dodd and Tyrone Munro with Jamie Humphreys and Bayleigh Bentley-Hape available again. However, Jack Wighton has been given a four-game ban since the squad was announced, which could open a door for Dodd to stay in the side. Elsewhere, Tevita Tatola’s serious shoulder injury last weekend sees Thomas Fletcher join the bench for his NRL debut. Peter Mamouzelos is named in the extended squad as he eyes a return from injury.

Rabbitohs team: 1. Jye Gray 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Tallis Duncan 5. Bayleigh Bentley-Hape 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamie Humphreys 8. Jai Arrow 9. Ryan Gray 10. Sean Keppie 11. Euan Aitken 12. Jacob Host 13. Lachlan Hubner 14. Siliva Havili 15. Liam Le Blanc 16. Thomas Fletcher 17. Ashton Ward 18. Peter Mamouzelos 19. Lewis Dodd 20. Tyrone Munro 21. Shaquai Mitchell 22. Salesi Ataata

My prediction – Brisbane Broncos 36-12 South Sydney Rabbitohs

I must be mad, but I’m backing Brisbane to come up with a big response after last week’s disappointing loss to the Eels. Souths were outstanding in defeat against the Sharks, but it was more of a gritty dispplay than one filled with attacking flair, so I’m not expecting them to suddenly put a score on here.

Betting tips

Like last week, I’ve spotted an opportunity to make some profit on the Rabbitohs’ likely lack of points. It’s 15/8 they score 10 points or less and 6/5 for 11-20 points, so if you go on both you’ll still make something. They haven’t scored more than 20 points in 12 of their 19 games this year.

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Saturday 2nd August – Gold Coast Titans vs Penrith Panthers – Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Form guide

The Titans breathed some life into their season with a 16-24 win over the Warriors in Auckland last weekend. The win lifted them off the bottom into 16th.

As for the Panthers, they’re the form team at the moment, which spells danger for the rest of the competition. Their 36-2 victory over the Tigers was their seventh in succession and saw them climb up to 5th – just three points behind the Warriors.

Team news

Sam Verrills returns for the Titans and takes over from Chris Randall, who has concussion. Sean Mullany is suspended, so Tom Weaver joins the bench.

Titans team: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Jaylan De Groot 3. Brian Kelly 4. Jojo Fifita 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Jayden Campbell 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 12. Beau Fermor 13. Klese Haas 14. Tom Weaver 15. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 16. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui 17. Josh Patston 18. Arama Hau 19. Tukimihia Simpkins 20. Tony Francis 21. Ryan Foran 22. Alofiana Khan-Pereira

No changes to the Panthers’ 17, although Liam Martin has been named to start after returning from the bench last week. He swaps places with Isaiah Papali’i.

Panthers team: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Luke Garner 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Brad Schneider 15. Liam Henry 16. Luron Patea 17. Isaiah Papali’i 18. Paul Alamoti 19. Matt Eisenhuth 20. Daine Laurie 21. Mavrik Geyer 22. Luke Sommerton

My prediction – Gold Coast Titans 6-42 Penrith Panthers

I know the Titans won last weekend and credit to them for that, but Penrith are in no mood for slip-ups, and anything other than a comfortable win would be a big surprise.

Betting tips

I’m happy to back the Panthers with a -13 handicap at 10/11. Casey McLean came in for me last week in the anytime try market, and he looks good value again this week at 6/5. I’m expecting Penrith to score a few, so he should get in on the act.

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Saturday 2nd August- St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders – WIN Stadium, Wollongong

Form guide

The Dragons were beaten 38-32 by the Cowboys last weekend to leave them down in 12th, and six points outside the top eight. It was a fourth loss in a row for St George, whose Finals chances have just about been put to bed.

It was a different story for the Raiders, whose 44-18 win over Newcastle was their ninth in a row. The Green Machine are fast closing in on the Minor Premiership, and they’re two points clear of Canterbury with another bye round still to come.

Team news

Jaydn Su’A is ruled out for the Dragons, so Michael Molo comes into the starting side and Hame Sele joins the bench. Otherwise, they’re unchanged from 1-17.

Dragons team: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Tyrell Sloan 3. Moses Suli 4. Mathew Feagai 5. Corey Allan 6. Lyhkan King-Togia 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Emre Guler 9. Damien Cook 10. David Klemmer 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Michael Molo 13. Jack de Belin 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Hamish Stewart 16. Hame Sele 17. Blake Lawrie 18. Jacob Halangahu 19. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga 20. Lachlan Ilias 21. Hayden Buchanan 22. Ben Murdoch-Masila

The Raiders also make just one change to their 17 with Seb Kris returning from concussion, which means Simi Sasagi drops to the bench and Noah Martin drops out.

My prediction – St George Illawarra Dragons 10-24 Canberra Raiders

This is one of those games where I’d expect the Raiders to just get the job done and move on. They’ll face bigger tests than this, but the Dragons are capable of springing a surprise. I just can’t see it this week.

Betting tips

The Raiders have been given just a -6 handicap, which looks way too good to pass up – that’s priced at 10/11. I like the look of a 13+ winning margin as well, which is 13/8.

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Saturday 2nd August- Manly Sea Eagles vs Sydney Roosters – 4 Pines Park, Sydney

Form guide

Just as Manly looked to have found a bit of form, they were hammered 42-4 by the Bulldogs last time out. For almost an hour it was a tight contest, but the Dogs pulled away in the final 20 to leave Manly in 9th. The Sea Eagles won’t have too many more chances to slip up between now and the end of the year.

The Roosters find themselves in a very similar boat, as their 30-34 loss at home to Melbourne made it back-to-back defeats. They’re 10th – two points outside the top eight – and even though they can take a lot of pride from their effort last weekened, it’s results that count more than performances over these last few weeks.

Team news

For Manly, Corey Waddell comes in for the injured Haumole Olakau’atu, while Jake Simpkin returns on the bench. Tommy Talau also returns to the 17, but Gordon Chan Kum Tong drops out.

Billy Smith and Hugo Savala are back for the Roosters, so Ethan King drops out of the 17. Sandon Smith also drops out, but he’s entered the concussion protocols. Benaiah Ioelu comes in for Zach Dockar-Clay on the bench. Victor Radley could make his comeback from injury after being named in the extended squad.

Roosters team: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Hugo Savala 7. Sam Walker 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Siua Wong 13. Egan Butcher 14. Benaiah Ioelu 15. Blake Steep 16. Salesi Foketi 17. Spencer Leniu 18. Ethan King 19. Taylor Losalu 20. Toby Rodwell 21. Zach Dockar-Clay 22. Victor Radley

My prediction – Manly Sea Eagles 14-18 Sydney Roosters

This game has a make-or-break feel about it for both sides and I’m struggling to split the two of them. Based on last week’s displays though, plus a slight hunch, I’m going for the Chooks. But only just.

Betting tips

Manly are slight favourites for this game, so I’m getting straight on the Roosters in the outright market at 6/5. There’s not much value in the anytime try market, so I’m backing the away side to win by 1-12 points instead, which is 9/4.

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Sunday 3rd August – Wests Tigers vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Form guide

The Tigers were comfortably beaten 36-2 by the Panthers in Round 21, and it looks all but certain they’ll be waiting another year at least for Finals footy. They’re 13th – six points outside the top eight.

The Bulldogs’ 42-4 demolition of Manly in Round 21 keeps them sitting in 2nd – two points behind ladder leaders Canberra. It was a third straight victory for the Dogs after their back-to-back losses in Rounds 17 and 18.

Team news

Jahream Bula is back for the Tigers, which means a backline shuffle with Izaac Tu’itupou dropping out. Samuela Fainu also returns, Royce Hunt is on the bench and Jack Bird is left out.

Tigers team: 1. Jahream Bula 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Taylan May 4. Starford To’a 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Jarome Luai 7. Latu Fainu 8. Terrell May 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Alex Twal 11. Samuela Fainu 12. Alex Seyfarth 13. Adam Doueihi 14. Sione Fainu 15. Royce Hunt 16. Fonua Pole 17. Tony Sukkar 18. Tristan Hope 19. Brent Naden 20. Charlie Murray 21. Heath Mason 22. Luke Laulilii

Connor Tracey is ruled out for the Bulldogs, so Jethro Rinakama comes back on the wing in a reshuffled backline. Otherwise, the Dogs are unchanged 1-17.

Bulldogs team: 1. Jacob Kiraz 2. Jethro Rinakama 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Enari Tuala 6. Matt Burton 7. Lachlan Galvin 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon 14. Kurt Mann 15. Harry Hayes 16. Josh Curran 17. Bailey Hayward 19. Mitchell Woods 20. Blake Wilson 21. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 22. Kurtis Morrin 23. Toby Sexton

My prediction – Wests Tigers 10-30 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

The Bulldogs were so impressive last week that I can’t make a case against them in this one, especially in favour of a Tigers team whose season looks all but done.

Betting tips

The Bulldogs have been given a -10 handicap, which should be ok at 10/11. Jethro Rinakama is 4/5 to score an anytime try, and having crossed for two in two in his NRL career so far, I’m backing him again.

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Sunday 3rd August – Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys – Sharks Stadium, Sydney

Form guide

The Sharks scraped past an under-strength Rabbitohs side last weekend, but at this stage of the year it’s results that count more than performances. That 12-14 victory made it three in a row following a mini-wobble, and they’re up into 7th.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, bounced back from three straight losses to defeat the Dragons, 38-32, in Round 21. The win saw them climb to 11th, but they’re five points off the top eight, which looks all but done for them this season.

Team news

The Sharks have Siosifa Talakai and Briton Nikora back on deck this week, while Toby Rudolf is ruled out with a concussion. Tom Hazelton is named in the extended squad as he eyes a return from injury.

Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jesse Colquhoun 16. Billy Burns 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 18. Jayden Berrell 19. Hohepa Puru 20. Mawene Hiroti 21. Thomas Hazelton 22. Samuel Stonestreet

Jake Clifford is back in the halves after injury for the Cowboys, and he replaces the injured Tom Duffy. Emarly Bitungane will make his NRL debut off the bench, becoming only the second African-born player in the comp. He replaces the suspended Karl Lawton in the 17.

Cowboys team: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Zac Laybutt 5. Braidon Burns 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 8. Harrison Edwards 9. Reece Robson 10. Griffin Neame 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Emarly Bitungane 15. Kaiden Lahrs 16. Kai O’Donnell 17. Coen Hess 18. Jaxson Paulo 19. Nicholas Lenaz 20. Mason Kira 21. Jamal Shibasaki 22. Dane Aukafolau

My prediction – Cronulla Sharks 24-16 North Queensland Cowboys

Everything points towards the Sharks in this one, although they’ll need to be more clinical in attack than they were last weekend. That being said, they’re on a three-game winning run and they’ve won 13 of their past 15 games against the Cowboys, so I’d expect them to get over the line here.

Betting tips

The Sharks have a -8 handicap, which I’m not overly convinced by, so instead I’m going with a 1-12 winning margin, which is 2/1. I’m not seeing loads of value in the try scoring markets, but I’ll be getting on Jaxon Purdue again at 9/5. He’s scored nine tries in 12 games when he’s played in the centres this year, compared with just one try in seven games playing in the halves, so the price is too good to ignore.

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