NRL 2025 – Round 21 preview, predictions and tips

It’s already Round 21 this week in the NRL, and expect to see teams dropping like flies when it comes to Finals footy over the next few weeks.

The Titans, Eels, Rabbitohs and Knights are all but done for the year, the Cowboys are clinging on by their fingertips, while the Tigers and Dragons are in the last-chance saloon.

It all makes for an exciting final few weeks of the regular season, and Round 21 has a couple of blockbusters to start and finish it, with plenty of juicy fixtures sandwiched in between…

*All tips are taken from Paddy Power and correct at time of writing on 22nd July 2025.

Thursday 24th July – Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm – Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Form guide

The Roosters’ 31-18 loss to the Sharks last weekend has left their hopes of Finals footy hanging in the balance- especially with four of their last seven games coming against the current top eight. As it stands, they sit 10th, two points off 8th, but the two sides directly above them both still have another bye to come.

The Storm suffered a surprise 16-18 loss at home to Manly in Round 20, which ended a run of six straight wins. The loss dropped them to 3rd on the ladder, but a top four spot still looks highly likely.

Team news

Chad Townsend has been dropped by the Roosters after just one game back in first grade with Sandon Smith taking his spot. Hugo Savala could come back from injury though as he’s been named in the extended squad. Victor Radley’s missing with a shoulder injury, so Suia Wong comes in for him, while Billy Smith is out with concussion, so Ethan King takes his place in the centres.

Roosters team: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Ethan King 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Sandon Smith 7. Sam Walker 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Salesi Foketi 13. Siua Wong 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Blake Steep 16. Egan Butcher 17. Spencer Leniu 18. Tom Rodwell 19. Taylor Losalu 20. Makahesi Makatoa 21. Benaiah Ioelu 22. Hugo Savala

Melbourne are missing Cameron Munster, who has been given time off to attend his father’s funeral, which means a starting spot for Tyran Wishart. Nelson Asofa-Solomona is suspended, so Kane Bradley and Bronson Garlick both come into the 17.

Storm team: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Grant Anderson 3. Jack Howarth 4. Joe Chan 5. Xavier Coates 6. Tyran Wishart 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Ativalu Lisati 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Kane Bradley 18. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown 19. Josiah Pahulu 20. Jonah Pezet 21. Coby Williamson 22. Lazarus Vaalepu

My prediction – Sydney Roosters 14-22 Melbourne Storm

It’s pretty rare for the Storm to lose back-to-back games, so I’m expecting a response this week – even with Cam Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen missing.

Betting tips

I’m jumping straight on Melbourne with a -4 handicap, at 10/11. The 15/8 for a 1-12 winning margin looks pretty tasty as well.

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Friday 25th July – North Queensland Cowboys vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

Form guide

The Cowboys’ 43-24 loss to the Dolphins last week means their year is just about done. They’re now seven points shy of the top eight, so it’ll need a miracle run to make the Finals this year. They’ve won just one of their past seven games though, so it looks even more unlikely.

It’s a similar story for the Dragons, who are just one point better off than this week’s opponents. They only just lost last week – 20-18 to the Bulldogs – but that third-straight defeat means they’re six points shy of the top eight.

Team news

Murray Taulagi is injured for the Cowboys, so Braidon Burns shifts to the wing, Jaxon Purdue moves to the centres and Thomas Duffy comes into the halves. Robert Derby has been recalled for Jaxson Paulo on the other wing, while Joh Bateman returns from injury this week in place of the injured Thomas Mikaele.

Cowboys team: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Robert Derby 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Zac Laybutt 5. Braidon Burns 6. Thomas Duffy 7. Tom Dearden 8. Harrison Edwards 9. Reece Robson 10. Griffin Neame 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Karl Lawton 15. Kaiden Lahrs 16. Kai O’Donnell 17. Coen Hess 18. Jaxson Paulo 19. Nicholas Lenaz 20. Temple Kalepo 21. Marly Bitungane 22. Dane Aukafolau

The Dragons make just one change from last weekend with Mat Feagai coming in for the injured Sione Finau. Feagai’s been named in the centres with Corey Allan shifting to the wing.

Dragons team: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Tyrell Sloan 3. Moses Suli 4. Mathew Feagai 5. Corey Allan 6. Lyhkan King-Togia 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Emre Guler 9. Damien Cook 10. David Klemmer 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack de Belin 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Blake Lawrie 16. Hamish Stewart 17. Michael Molo 18. Nicholas Tsougranis 19. Ben Murdoch-Masila 20. Lachlan Ilias 21. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga 22. Jacob Halangahu

My prediction – North Queensland Cowboys 18-24 St George Illawarra Dragons

With both sides’ seasons just about over, this really could be anything in terms of who wins and by what score. I’m just about tipping the Dragons though. Even though their form hasn’t been great, they’ve at least found themselves on the end of some close scorelines, unlike the Cowboys.

Betting tips

The Cowboys have been given a -4 handicap, so I’m getting straight on the Dragons to win at 6/4. In the try scoring market, Jaxon Purdue has proved to be far more dangerous in the centres than the halves, but his odds don’t reflect that, so the 7/5 on an anytime score looks great value.

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Friday 25th July – Brisbane Broncos vs Parramatta Eels – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Form guide

The Broncos had a week off in Round 20, but their five-game winning run has put them firmly back in the top eight, and they even have one eye on a top four finish.

The Eels ran Canberra a lot closer than the 40-16 scoreline suggests last weekend, but they were blown away in the final 10 minutes. They sit 16th, with eyes firmly fixed on next year already.

Team news

Payne Haas is back for the Broncos after being rested following Origin III, while Jesse Arthars is back from injury. Corey Jensen is also back in the 17. Deine Mariner and Selwyn Cobbo only make the extended squad.

Broncos team: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Xavier Willison 9. Ben Hunt 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Billy Walters 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Corey Jensen 17. Jack Gosiewski 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Deine Mariner 20. Selwyn Cobbo 21. Ben Talty 22. Jaiyden Hunt

One huge return for the Eels, which sees Mitchell Moses back in the team after four games out. His comeback sees Dean Hawkins shift to number 6 with Joash Papalii moving to fullback in place of the injured Isaiah Iongi. Will Penisini is back from suspension, so Bailey Simonsson drops out of the 17, while Luca Moretti has joined the bench. There’s no place in the 17 again for Dylan Brown, who looks unlikely to play for Parra again.

Eels team: 1. Joash Papali’i 2. Zac Lomax 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dean Hawkins 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Luca Moretti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Sam Tuivaiti 18. Dan Keir 19. Jordan Samrani 20. Bailey Simonsson 21. Toni Mataele 22. Dylan Brown

My prediction – Brisbane Broncos 38-12 Parramatta Eels

At this time of the year, games like this are pretty common where one side’s sniffing blood and one’s just seeing out the season. On that basis, I’m expecting a comfortable home win for the Broncos as they look to motor towards the Finals.

Betting tips

I’m fairly comfortable backing Brisbane with a -14 handicap, at 10/11. In the try scoring market, Gehamat Shibasaki looks the best value for an anytime score at 1/1.

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Saturday 26th July – New Zealand Warriors vs Gold Coast Titans – Go Media Stadium, Auckland

Form guide

The Warriors did just enough to edge past the Knights in Round 20 with young superstar Leka Halasima scoring a the winning try in the dying seconds. That 15-20 victory in Newcastle kept the New Zealanders in 4th – four points clear of Brisbane.

The Titans, meanwhile, suffered an agonising 21-20 loss to the Tigers last weekend. It was a decent performance from the Gold Coast, but they remain rock bottom with just four wins from 17 games, and a big off-season lies ahead for them.

Team news

The Warriors welcome Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad back from injury, so Taine Tuaupiki drops out of the 17 in the only change from last weekend.

Warriors team: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Kurt Capewell 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Tanah Boyd 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Jackson Ford 11. Leka Halasima 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark 14. Te Maire Martin 15. Jacob Laban 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith 18. Taine Tuaupiki 20. Samuel Healey 21. Bunty Afoa 22. Ali Leiataua 23. Eddie Ieremia

Captain Tino Fa’asuamaelaui is missing for the Titans, so Klese Haas comes into the starting side. David Fifita is missing with an ankle injury, while Alofiana Khan-Pereira is left out of the 17 despite having a quite unbelievable 53 tries in 53 games over his career, including nine in nine this season.

Titans team: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Jaylan De Groot 3. Brian Kelly 4. Jojo Fifita 5. Phillip Sami 6. Kieran Foran 7. Jayden Campbell 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Sam Verrills 10. Jaimin Jolliffe 11. Chris Randall 12. Beau Fermor 13. Klese Haas 14. Jacob Alick-Wiencke 15. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 16. Iszac Fa’asumaleaui 17. Josh Patston 18. Arama Hau 19. Sean Mullany 20. Tom Weaver 21. Ryan Foran 22. Alofiana Khan-Pereira

My prediction – New Zealand Warriors 32-10 Gold Coast Titans

This is another one of those games where the home side should be boosting their points difference ahead of Finals footy in a few weeks’ time. Anything other than a routine Warriors victory here would be a shock.

Betting tips

Again, I’m fairly comfortable with the handicap for this game, which sees the Warriors priced at 10/11 with a -10 disadvantage. Leka Halasima came in for me last week in the anytime try market, and with the Warriors big favourites and the teenager in red hot form, I’m backing him again. He’s 6/4 this week.

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Saturday 26th July – Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers – CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Form guide

The Panthers made it six straight wins with their 30-10 victory over the Rabbitohs in Round 20. They sit 6th on the ladder, just three points inside the top eight though, so there’s still work to do to get over the line.

The Tigers kept their own faint Finals hopes alive with a narrow 21-20 win over the Titans in Round 20. That victory moved them up to 12th, although they’re six points shy of the top eight and running out of time.

Team news

Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo are back from their post-Origin rest, while Liam Martin could also return for the Panthers after being named on the extended bench. Izack Tago is back from a ban and comes straight in for Paul Alamoti, while Brad Schneider drops to the bench and Jack Cole is left out entirely.

Panthers team: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To’o 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Luke Garner 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Brad Schneider 15. Liam Henry 16. Luron Patea 17. Matt Eisenhuth 18. Paul Alamoti 19. Liam Martin 20. Daine Laurie 21. Mavrik Geyer 22. Luke Sommerton

Izaac Thompson will play his first game for the Tigers. The former Rabbitohs winger has been rewarded for his strong NSW Cup form, and he replaces Charlie Staines in the only change.

Tigers team: 1. Sunia Turuva 2. Izaac Tu’itupou 3. Taylan May 4. Starford To’a 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Jarome Luai 7. Latu Fainu 8. Terrell May 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Alex Twal 11. Alex Seyfarth 12. Tony Sukkar 13. Adam Doueihi 14. Tristan Hope 15. Jack Bird 16. Fonua Pole 17. Sione Fainu 18. Brent Naden 19. Charlie Murray 20. Charlie Staines 21. Luke Laulilii 22. Krystian Mapapalangi

My prediction – Penrith Panthers 28-16 Wests Tigers

This is yet another one of those games where the home side will be looking to just get the job done and move on to bigger tests ahead. In fairness, the Tigers often cause Penrith a few problems, so I don’t think they’ll be blown away, but the Panthers should win this one.

Betting tips

I’m avoiding the handicap market in this game, as -13 looks touch and go to me. Instead, the 1/1 for a Casey McLean anytime try will be my first port of call. I like the look of Wests to score 11-20 points as well, which is 5/4. If you want to cover yourself, it’s 13/5 they score 10 points or less, so if you go on both you’ll still make a tidy profit. Anything over 20 points would be a big surprise.

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Saturday 26th July – South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Cronulla Sharks- Polytec Stadium, Gosford

Form guide

The Rabbitohs’ sorry season continued with a 30-10 loss at Penrith last weekend to make it seven straight defeats. The Bunnies sit 15th and are one of a handful of sides just looking to avoid the wooden spoon now.

As for the Sharks, their 31-18 win over the Roosters made it back-to-back wins and lifted them into the top eight where they have a two-point cushion.

Team news

Big-money English import Lewis Dodd finally gets his first start at halfback for South Sydney with Jamie Humphreys ruled out due to concussion. Keaon Koloamatangi is out for the season and Peter Mamouzelos is another player missing with concussion, so Ryan Gray and debutant Ashton Ward join the bench. Jye Gray returns from injury at fullback in a timely boost.

Rabbitohs team: 1. Jye Gray 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Tallis Duncan 5. Tyrone Munro 6. Jack Wighton 7. Lewis Dodd 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Siliva Havili 10. Sean Keppie 11. Euan Aitken 12. Jai Arrow 13. Lachlan Hubner 14. Liam Le Blanc 15. Jacob Host 16. Ryan Gray 17. Ashton Ward 18. Thomas Fletcher 19. Shaquai Mitchell 20. Salesi Ataata 21. Bayleigh Bentley-Hape 22. Ammaron Gudgeon

Jesse Ramien returns from injury for the Sharks, but Briton Nikora is ruled out with concussion. Billy Burns is named in the starting side and Daniel Atkinson joins the bench.

Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Billy Burns 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jesse Colquhoun 16. Toby Rudolf 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 18. Jayden Berrell 19. Chris Veaila 20. Hohepa Puru 21. Samuel Stonestreet 22. Niwhai Puru

My prediction – South Sydney Rabbitohs 10-32 Cronulla Sharks

I’m struggling to see how the Rabbitohs can get anything from this game. They lost three of their first-choice 17 last weekend and with no big names returning this week, I don’t see them causing Cronulla too many problems.

Betting tips

The Sharks are 10/11 with a -14 handicap, which should be ok. This is another game where there’s a chance to make a small profit on the Rabbitohs’ likely lack of points. It;s 13/5 they score 10 or less, and 6/5 for 11-20. As with the Tigers, anything more than 20 looks a long shot.

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Sunday 27th July – Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights – GIO Stadium, Canberra

Form guide

The Raiders were pushed hard by the Eels last weekend, but they pulled away in the final 10 minutes to win 40-16 and pick up an eighth straight win in the process. With a two-point lead at the top of the ladder and another bye to come, the Minor Premiership’s within reach now.

The Knights were agonisingly beaten in the dying seconds last week, as the Warriors claimed a 15-20 win. That loss killed off any lingering hopes of a Finals spot for Newcastle, who are now just two points clear of 17th-placed Gold Coast in their battle to avoid the wooden spoon.

Team news

Seb Kris is ruled out for the Raiders with concussion, so Simi Sasagi moves into the starting side and Noah Martin joins the bench.

Raiders team: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jed Stuart 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Simi Sasagi 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Zac Hosking 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Owen Pattie 15. Noah Martin 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Ata Mariota 18. Manaia Waitere 19. Trey Mooney 20. Joseph Roddy 21. Danny Levi 22. Ethan Sanders

The Knights make just one change to their 17 with Jack Hetherington back on the bench after four weeks in the reserves. His return sees Thomas Cant drop to 18th man.

Knights team: 1. Dane Gagai 2. Dominic Young 3. Fletcher Hunt 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Jackson Hastings 7. Jack Cogger 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Phoenix Crossland 14. Tyson Gamble 15. Mathew Croker 16. Tyson Frizell 17. Jack Hetherington 18. Thomas Cant 19. James Schiller 20. Matthew Arthur 21. Brodie Jones 22. Kyle McCarthy

My prediction – Canberra Raiders 36-18 Newcastle Knights

I’m getting fed up of saying it now, but this is another of those games where a Premiership contender’s facing a team with one eye on Round 27 already, so a routine home win should be in the offing here.

Betting tips

Another game with a big handicap, which should be safe. The Raiders are -14, which is 10/11. Hudson Young looks the best-priced for an anytime try, at 11/10. He has 10 in 15 games this year and he’s overdue one after going three matches without scoring.

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Sunday 27th July – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Manly Sea Eagles – Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Form guide

The Bulldogs just edged past the Dragons in Round 20, with their 20-18 win lifting them back up to 2nd. That win made it 13 from 17 this year, and no side has a stronger defence than Canterbury.

Manly picked up a huge win in Melbourne last time out, with their 16-18 victory keeping them 7th – two points inside the top eight. It’s three straight wins now for the Sea Eagles, who have found form at just the right time.

Team news

Despite an impressive start in first grade with two tries from two games for the Bulldogs, Jethro Rinakama makes way this week following the return of Bronson Xerri. Sam Hughes is also back, with Sitili Tupouniua dropping out through injury.

Bulldogs team: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Enari Tuala 6. Matt Burton 7. Lachlan Galvin 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon 14. Kurt Mann 15. Harry Hayes 16. Josh Curran 17. Bailey Hayward 19. Jethro Rinakama 20. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 21. Blake Wilson 22. Kurtis Morrin 23. Toby Sexton

Manly make one change to last week’s 17. Haumole Olakau’atu is back from a shoulder injury, so Tommy Talau drops to 18th man.

Sea Eagles team: 1. Lehi Hopoate 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Tom Trbojevic 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Matthew Lodge 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Corey Waddell 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Toafofoa Sipley 18. Tommy Talau 19. Clayton Faulalo 20. Caleb Navale 21. Joey Walsh 22. Gordon Chan Kum Tong

My prediction – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 18-14 Manly Sea Eagles

This could be the game of the round and despite there being eight points between the two sides on the ladder, this one’s too close to call. I’m backing the Bulldogs to nick it though, just.

Betting tips

The Bulldogs have been given just a -2 handicap, so I’m backing that at 10/11. In the anytime try market, no one’s any worse than 1/1, so there’s some great value to be found. I’m backing Tolutau Koula for Manly though, at 7/5. He’s scored in each of his last three games, and five in his past six.

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