NRL 2025 – Round 1 preview and predictions – part 2
Round one has already kicked off for some teams, in the bright lights of Vegas, but now it’s time for everyone else to get involved. 12 teams are in action this weekend with Gold Coast Titans getting the bye, so without further ado let’s take a look at who’s playing who…
Thursday 6th March – Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos – Allianz Stadium, Sydney
The weekend gets underway with a blockbuster on Thursday, as the Roosters take on the Broncos in Sydney.
The Chooks will be an interesting team to watch in 2025, given the number of players they’ve lost post-2024, and if their pre-season trials are anything to go by, they could struggle in 2025. A 26-8 loss to the Dragons was followed up by a 48-10 hammering by the Knights.
On the other side of the coin, big improvements are expected from the Broncos in 2025 after a poor year in 2024. Again, if you are to read anything into pre-season results then a 50-12 win over the Titans and a 30-14 victory over the Bulldogs would suggest they’ve warmed up nicely for the new season.
Team news
Veteran Chad Townsend makes his Roosters debut in the halves, while at the other end of the scale, Robert Toia, makes his first grade debut alongsode one-game rugby recruit Mark Nawaqawitanase in the centres.
Roosters team: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Mark Nawaqanitawase 4. Robert Toia 5. Dominic Young 6. Sandon Smith 7. Chad Townsend 8. Lindsay Collins 9. Connor Watson 10. Naufahu Whyte 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Nat Butcher 14. Zach Dockar-Clay 15. Siua Wong 16. Blake Steep 17. Salesi Foketi 18. Hugo Savala 19. Taylor Losalu 20. Ethan King 21. Fetalaiga Pauga 22. Makahesi Makatoa
For Brisbane, Corey Paix has won the battle for the number nine jumper, which means Billy Walters starts on the bench. Gehamat Shibasaki replaces the injured Kotoni Staggs in the centres. Jack Gosiewski is preferred to Brendan Piakura in the second row, while Ben Hunt makes his second debut for the club in the halves.
Broncos team: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Deine Mariner 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ben Hunt 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Patrick Carrigan 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Jordan Riki 13. Kobe Hetherington 14. Billy Walters 15. Corey Jensen 16. Xavier Willison 17. Brendan Piakura 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Delouise Hoeter 20. Martin Taupau 21. Benjamin Te Kura 22. Jaiyden Hunt
My prediction – Sydney Roosters 8-20 Brisbane Broncos
I can see the Roosters having a tough season, and looking at their side for this one, I can’t see where they’ll do the damage to what should be a much-improved Broncos side with more firepower.
Betting tips
Deine Mariner is 6/1 to be the Broncos’ first try scorer, and that looks a good price to me.
Friday 7th March – Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights – Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
The Tigers will be looking to avoid a fourth straight wooden spoon in 2025, but they’ll have their sights set on doing better than just avoiding 17th.
As for the Knights, this could be a fifth finals series in six years, which would be a solid achievement, but the aim is to take that next step.
Pre-season didn’t give much away with these two teams. The Tigers won one and lost one, scoring 44 to 38 in total, while the Knights suffered a heavy loss to the Eels and then picked up a big win over the Roosters.
Team news
Jarome Luai, Terrell May, Sunia Turuva, Jeral Skelton Jack Bird and Royce Hunt will all make their Tigers’ debuts in this one, with Luai being named captain as well in the absence of Api Koroisau.
Tigers team: 1. Heath Mason 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Solomona Faataape 5. Jeral Skelton 6. Lachlan Galvin 7. Jarome Luai 8. Terrell May 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Fonua Pole 11. Samuela Fainu 12. Alex Seyfarth 13. Alex Twal 14. Tristan Hope 15. Royce Hunt 16. Jack Bird 17. Sione Fainu 18. Latu Fainu 19. Charlie Staines 20. Kit Laulilii 21. Tony Sukkar 22. Reuben Porter
Fletcher Sharpe and Jack Cogger will get first crack in the halves for Newcastle this year, but doubts remain as to who the long-term pairing will be this year. Jackson Hastings and Will Pryce have both been named on the extended bench, while Tyson Gamble has been left out completely.
Knights team: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. James Schiller 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Jack Cogger 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Dylan Lucas 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Tyson Frizell 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Jack Hetherington 16. Brodie Jones 17. Mathew Croker 18. Thomas Cant 19. Will Pryce 20. Logan Aoake 21. Jackson Hastings 22. Adam Elliott
My prediction – Wests Tigers 16-10 Newcastle Knights
This is a really tough one to call and I’m not backing the Tigers to do anything special this year, but I can see them starting off with a win. They’re at home and Newcastle’s lack of an established halves pairing is a concern.
Betting tips
Sunia Turuva to score a try at any time looks too good to pass up at 11/8.
Friday 7th March – Dolphins vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – CommBank Stadium, Sydney
It’s a strange quirk of fate that Wayne Bennett’s first game back in charge of Souths comes against the side he’s just left, but RL works in mysterious ways.
As a result of his departure, Kristian Woolf takes charge of his first NRL game after successful stints in charge of St Helens and Tonga.
This game was scheduled to be played at Suncorp, but it’s been shifted to Parramatta’s home ground at short notice due to Cyclone Alfred, so it’ll be interesting to see what impact, if any, that has on the outcome.
The Dolphins recorded an impressive 50-8 win over the Cowboys in pre-season before losing 26-18 to the Titans. As for the Bunnies, they lost two out of two, and conceded 80 points in the process.
Team news
Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, Daniel Saifiti and Junior Tupou all make their debuts for the Dolphins, while Tom Gilbert is back after a long injury layoff.
Late mail: The Dolphins could be without up to five players from their original team, with a few of them set to stay home due to the incoming Cyclone Alfred. So far it’s not clear who’ll be missing, but reports suggest that Mark Nicholls, Kodi Nikorima and Kenny Bromwich are among the senior stars not travelling.
Dolphins team: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jake Averillo 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Junior Tupou 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Felise Kaufusi 11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 12. Max Plath 13. Tom Gilbert 14. Kurt Donoghoe 15. Connelly Lemuelu 16. Mark Nicholls 17. Ray Stone 18. Kenny Bromwich 19. Josh Kerr 20. Sean O’Sullivan 21. Harrison Graham 22. Max Feagai
South Sydney welcome Campbell Graham back after he missed the whole of 2024 through injury. Tevita Tatola and Isaiah Tass are both back after long injuries too. New signing Lewis Dodd is missing through suspension, so another new arrival – Jamie Humphreys – gets first crack in the number seven jersey.
Rabbitohs team: 1. Jye Gray 2. Isaiah Tass 3. Jack Wighton 4. Campbell Graham 5. Tyrone Munro 6. Cody Walker 7. Jamie Humphreys 8. Sean Keppie 9. Peter Mamouzelos 10. Davvy Moale 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Lachlan Hubner 14. Jayden Sullivan 15. Siliva Havili 16. Tallis Duncan 17. Tevita Tatola 18. Liam Le Blanc 19. Fletcher Myers 20. Jacob Host 21. Thomas Fletcher 22. Salesi Ataata
My prediction – Dolphins 18-24 South Sydney Rabbitohs
*I’ll stick with my original score prediction and reasons below, but don’t be surprised if the Bunnies do go on to win by more than six, given the number of Dolphins players who are set to pull out.*
This game could be anything, and the late change of venue is likely to have an impact. I’m expecting a high-scoring contest, especially given the Rabbitohs’ porous defence and dangerous attack, but I’m going for them to edge it.
Betting tips
I’m expecting a high-scoring game, so Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Herbie Farnworth and Jamayne Isaako all to score a try doesn’t look outrageous at 14/1, although it’s a long shot. I like the look of 7-9 match tries as well, which is priced at 6/5.
Saturday 8th March – St. George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
There are so many interesting match-ups this weekend, and this is just another example. The Dragons were OK in 2024, although they ultimately missed out on the finals, whereas the Bulldogs were mightily impressive and finished sixth, before bowing out in week one.
Still, this is a new year, and the Dragons have started it with two impressive wins in pre-season, against the Roosters and the Rabbitohs. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, beat the Tigers before losing to the Broncos.
Team news
Clint Gutherson, Damien Cook, Valentine Holmes, Lachlan Ilias and Emre Guler all make their Dragons debuts this weekend. Gutherson’s inclusion means Tyrell Sloan misses out on the starting 17.
Dragons team: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Toby Couchman 9. Damien Cook 10. Emre Guler 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack de Belin 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Ryan Couchman 16. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 17. Hamish Stewart 18. Dylan Egan 19. Tyrell Sloan 20. Lyhkan King-Togia 21. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga 22. Tom Eisenhuth
Sitili Tupouniua will make his debut off the bench for the Bulldogs, who are missing Jacob Kiraz with a back injury.
Bulldogs team: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Blake Wilson 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Kurt Mann 14. Bailey Hayward 15. Sitili Tupouniua 16. Harry Hayes 17. Jaeman Salmon 19. Blake Taaffe 20. Kurtis Morrin 21. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 22. Luke Smith 23. Ratu Rinakama
My prediction – St. George Illawarra Dragons 12-14 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
I’ve been really impressed with the Dragons’ recruitment in the off-season, and I’m expecting them to give the Doggies a run for their money in this one. I just can’t see past a strong Bulldogs outfit though, even though I think it’ll be tight.
Betting tips
The Bulldogs to win by 1-10 points is 2/1, which gives you a bit of room for manoeuvre.
Saturday 8th March – Manly Sea Eagles vs North Queensland Cowboys – 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Just two places and three points separated these sides on the ladder in 2024, so this should be another game that’s too close to call.
It was one win and one loss for both teams in pre-season, so not much to go on in terms of form. The Cowboys were hammered 50-8 by the Dolphins, but with a very under-strength team.
Team news
Jazz Tevaga and Siosiua Taukeiaho both make their Manly debuts, while Taniela Paseka and Jason Saab have both been named despite being injury doubts.
Sea Eagles team: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Corey Waddell 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Toafofoa Sipley 18. Clayton Faulalo 19. Dean Matterson 20. Gordon Chan Kum Tong 21. Jakob Arthur 22. Josh Aloiai
Tom Duffy will make his NRL debut in the halves, and John Bateman and Karl Lawton will both make their club debuts.
Cowboys team: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Braidon Burns 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Thomas Duffy 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Sam McIntyre 11. John Bateman 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Karl Lawton 15. Harrison Edwards 16. Griffin Neame 17. Coen Hess 18. Kai O’Donnell 19. Jake Clifford 20. Thomas Mikaele 21. Jaxson Paulo 22. Jason Taumalolo
My prediction – Manly Sea Eagles 28-16 North Queensland Cowboys
With the home support behind them, I’m backing the Sea Eagles to start the year with a win. The Cowboys’ side looks a bit light to me, and I can see Manly causing them nightmares on the edges.
Betting tips
Manly are just 1/2 for the win, so get on them with a -6 handicap at 10/11 for some better value.
Sunday 9th March – Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels – AAMI Park, Melbourne
Fortunately I don’t read too much into pre-season results, because Melbourne lost both of their trial matches, conceding a total of 72 points, and yet I have them down as Premiership favourites.
As for the Eels, they followed up a big win over Newcastle with a defeat at the Tigers, but that won’t count for much this weekend.
Team news
Stefano Utoikamanu will make his debut for the Storm this weekend, otherwise it’s a vaery familiar looking side from 2024. Ryan Papenhuyzen is fit, which means Sua Fa’alogo only makes the extended bench.
Storm team: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. William Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Tyran Wishart 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Lazarus Vaalepu 18. Grant Anderson 19. Bronson Garlick 20. Joe Chan 21. Sualauvi Faalogo 22. Kane Bradley
Mitchell Moses is the big out for Parramatta, with Ronald Volkman replacing him at halfback. Zac Lomax will make his club debut in the centres, Isaiah Iongi makes his club debut at fullback, and Ryley Smith will make his NRL debut from the bench.
Eels team: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Sean Russell 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Zac Lomax 5. Jake Tago 6. Dylan Brown 7. Ronald Volkman 8. Joe Ofahengaue 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Jack Williams 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Ryley Smith 15. Matt Doorey 16. Ryan Matterson 17. Charlie Guymer 18. Joash Papali’i 19. Jordan Samrani 20. Toni Mataele 21. Sam Tuivaiti 22. Joey Lussick
My prediction – Melbourne Storm 36-10 Parramatta Eels
I can see this being a ‘welcome to first grade’ for new Eels coach Jason Ryles. The Storm will have been waiting for this game ever since the final whistle went in last year’s Grand Final, and against a team who finished 15th, at home, I think they’ll be sniffing blood.
Betting tips
The Storm are just 1/9 to win this one, so an outright win isn’t much value. In the handicap betting, it’s 10/11 for Melbourne with -18, which again looks a little risky, given that the Eels have a new coach and are a bit of an unknown quantity.
Instead, the try scorer market looks better value, and it’s 11/2 for Will Warbrick, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Xavier Coates to all score a try.
