NRL 2025 – Finals week one – preview, predictions and tips
It’s Finals time already in the NRL, and there are four massive, unmissable games to watch this weekend.
First up, 2nd plays 3rd in Melbourne on Friday as the Storm take on the Bulldogs. The winner gets next week off, while the loser gets a second bite at the cherry.
On Saturday, we’ll see two sides’ seasons come to an end. First stop’s Auckland for the Warriors against the Panthers, then it’s off to Sydney where the Sharks play the Roosters.
Finally, on Sunday, it’s the turn of the Minor Premiers – the Raiders – who will take on the Broncos in the nation’s capital. Once again, there’s salvation for the loser as they get another go next weekend, while the winner takes a week off.
I can’t wait to see what these eight sides have in store for us, so without further ado let’s take a look at the previews, predictions and tips…
- Friday 12th September – Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – AAMI Park, Melbourne
- Saturday 13th September – New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Go Media Stadium, Auckland
- Saturday 13th September – Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters – Sharks Stadium, Sydney
- Sunday 14th September – Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos – GIO Stadium, Canberra
*All odds are taken from Paddy Power and correct at time of writing on 9th September 2025.
Friday 12th September – Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – AAMI Park, Melbourne
Form guide
Melbourne finished the regular season with back-to-back defeats to the Roosters and the Broncos – condeding 70 points in the process. Although their top four spot was long since guaranteed and they had 2nd place wrapped up before Round 27, it was still a disappointing drop off for the Storm, who finished the season with seven defeats.
The Bulldogs also dropped off towards the end of the regular season, losing three of their final four games. The only win in that run was a routine victory against a Panthers reserve side. Still, like Melbourne, the Bulldogs’ top four spot has been safe for a number of weeks, and they finished the year in a fairly comfortable 3rd.
Team news
The Storm are missing three big names with Jahrome Hughes ruled out through injury, Ryan Papenhuyzen missing with concussion, and Nelson Asofa-Solomona out through suspension. Harry Grant is back from a suspension of his own, while Stefano Utoikamanu returns after being rested last week.
Storm team: 1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Grant Anderson 4. Joe Chan 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tyran Wishart 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Ativalu Lisati 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Trent Loiero 14. Jonah Pezet 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tui Kamikamica 17. Bronson Garlick 18. Kane Bradley 19. Marion Seve 20. Jack Howarth 21. Sualauvi Faalogo 22. Lazarus Vaalepu
The Bulldogs have lost Marcelo Montoya to injury and Bronson Xerri to concussion, so Blake Wilson and Jethro Rinakama come into the starting side.
Bulldogs team: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jethro Rinakama 3. Enari Tuala 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Blake Wilson 6. Matt Burton 7. Lachlan Galvin 8. Max King 9. Bailey Hayward 10. Samuel Hughes 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon 14. Kurt Mann 15. Sitili Tupouniua 16. Josh Curran 17. Reed Mahoney 19. Jake Turpin 20. Kurtis Morrin 21. Toby Sexton 22. Harry Hayes 23. Jacob Kiraz
My prediction – Melbourne Storm 18-12 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Even though the Storm are missing some of their big names, I still think they’ll have too much for the Bulldogs at home. Canterbury are missing a couple of big players themselves, and their form has been patchy for a number of weeks.
Betting tips
I like the look of Melbourne-Melbourne in the half-time/full-time market at 5/6. They’re also 7/4 to win by 1-12 points, and I’ll be getting on that too.
Saturday 13th September – New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Form guide
The Warriors are another team who come into the Finals off the back of some poor form, having won just two of their last seven games in the regular season. At one point, they looked destined to finish 4th, but they ended the year in 6th, meaning there are no second chances if they lose this game.
The Panthers put together a nine-game winning run to get into contention for a top four spot, although three straight defeats between Rounds 24 and 26 have left them having to make do with 7th. They did at least finish the year with a 20-40 win at the Dragons though.
Team news
Rocco Berry is ruled out for the Warriors, so Kurt Capewell shifts to the centres and Leka Halasima comes into the second row. Wayde Egan and Jackson Ford are both back just in time from injury and suspension, so Sam Healey drops out of the 17 and Tanner Stowers-Smith goes to the bench.
Warriors team: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Kurt Capewell 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Tanah Boyd 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Jackson Ford 11. Leka Halasima 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark 14. Te Maire Martin 15. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith 18. Taine Tuaupiki 20. Samuel Healey 21. Kalani Going 22. Bunty Afoa 23. Edward Kosi
The Panthers welcome back Brian To’o and Liam Martin after a few weeks of rest, but Mitch Kenny is ruled out through injury. Paul Alamoti has kept his place on the wing at the expense of Thomas Jenkins, who drops to 18th man.
My prediction – New Zealand Warriors 14-24 Penrith Panthers
I can’t see past the Panthers in this one, although I’m expecting the Warriors to push them pretty close. The home side have hit their ceiling in my opinion, whereas the reigning Premiers have proved they know how to get over the line in the big games on multiple occasions.
Betting tips
He’s been doing so well for me this year that I can’t ignore Casey McLean in the anytime try market again at 1/1. I’m tipping the Warriors to score between 11 and 20 points as well, which is 6/5.
Saturday 13th September – Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters – Sharks Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Sharks finished the regular season with three straight wins as they soared into 5th – level on points with the Broncos just above them. A 6-24 win at the Bulldogs saw them end the year in style.
Ordinarily, I would dismiss the side finishing 8th as just making up the numbers, but this Roosters outfit are arguably the form side in the competition. They won five of their last six games to keep the Dolphins at bay for the final spot, and they scored 76 points in their last two games, including 40 in Melbourne.
Team news
Braydon Trindall is back for the Sharks, so Daniel Atkinson drops to 18th man. Briton Nikora is named in the extended squad after suspension and could find himself in the matchday 17.
Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3 Jesse Ramien 4. KL Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Toby Rudolf 11. Billy Burns 12. Teig Wilton 13. Jesse Colquhoun 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Siosifa Talakai 16. Thomas Hazelton 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 18. Daniel Atkinson 19. Mawene Hiroti 20. Jayden Berrell 21. Briton Nikora 22. Hohepa Puru
The Roosters have named the same 17 who overcame the Rabbitohs last weekend.
Roosters team: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Hugo Savala 7. Sam Walker 8. Spencer Leniu 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Victor Radley 13. Naufahu Whyte 14. Benaiah Ioelu 15. Egan Butcher 16. Blake Steep 17. Siua Wong 18. Ethan King 19. Salesi Foketi 20. Sandon Smith 21. Tom Rodwell 22. Makahesi Makatoa
My prediction – Cronulla Sharks 16-24 Sydney Roosters
I just have a feeling about the Roosters right now. I’m not saying they’ll win the Premiership, but they’re one side that no one will want to be playing in their current form and I’d fully expect them to get to week two at least.
Betting tips
The Roosters have just a -2 handicap, so I’ll be straight on that at 10/11. Mark Nawaqanitawase is just 8/15 for an anytime try. With those odds, it’s not really worth it, but he’s also 9/4 to score two or more tries. Given that he has seven in two games, that’s definitely worth a punt.
Sunday 14th September – Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos – GIO Stadium, Canberra
Form guide
Minor Premiers Canberra suffered a 62-24 thrashing at the hands of the Dolphins last weekend. Seeing as they’d clinched top spot the previous week and rested all of their big names, the result didn’t matter too much though. If you believe in superstition though, it does end their chances of winning the Premiership, as no side in NRL history has conceded 50 points in a regular season game and gone onto lift the big one.
The Broncos, meanwhile, clinched their top four spot last week with a 30-14 win over Melbourne. That made it four straight wins to end the regular season, and crucially they’ll get a second bite at the cherry if this week’s result goes against them.
Team news
All the big guns are back for the Raiders this week after being rested for Round 27. Seb Kris missed the previous week as well, but he’s back, which means Noah Martin drops out. Josh Papali’i is a doubt, but has been named in the initial lineup.
Raiders team: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Jed Stuart 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Zac Hosking 13. Corey Horsburgh 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Ata Mariota 18. Matt Nicholson 19. Danny Levi 20. Ethan Sanders 21. Noah Martin 22. Trey Mooney
Just the one change for the Broncos this week. Gehamat Shibasaki is recalled after being dropped for disciplinary reasons last weekend, so Deine Mariner moves over to the wing and Jesse Arthars drops to 18th man.
Broncos team: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Deine Mariner 6. Billy Walters 7. Ben Hunt 8. Corey Jensen 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Ben Talty 17. Jaiyden Hunt 18. Jesse Arthars 19. Fletcher Baker 20. Delouise Hoeter 21. Jack Gosiewski 22. Jock Madden
My prediction – Canberra Raiders 20-18 Brisbane Broncos
This is the game I’m least confident with this week. Granted, the Raiders won the Minor Premiership and finished eight points ahead of Brisbane, but there’s just something about the Broncos when they get some momentum, which makes them so tough to stop. That said, I’m going for the home side here…just.
Betting tips
I’m expecting a close one here, so the 15/8 on Canberra to win by 1-12 points is too good to pass up. I’m going for a big one in this game as well, and that’s Brisbane to score first, lead at half-time and lose, which is 10/1.
