NRL Grand Final 2026 – preview, predictions and tips
Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday 4th October – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Be honest, who predicted these two would face off in the Grand Final this year? The Roosters aren’t a huge surprise, but the Knights were wooden spooners just 12 months ago, so the turnaround has been nothing short of miracluous.
Whatever happens this week, history will be made. If the Roosters win, they’ll be the first side to win a Premiership after conceding 50 points in a game during the season.
If the Knights win, they’ll be the first team ever to win the Premiership from 7th position.
Victory for the Roosters this weekend will see them clinch their 16th Premiership, which will move them to outright 2nd on the list of winners. They’ve also been runners-up on 15 occasions.
For the Knights, they’re going for their third Premiership, and they’ve never lost a Grand Final.
What a game this promises to be…
*All odds are taken from Paddy Power and correct at time of writing on 2nd October 2026.
Form guide
The Roosters finished the season in 4th on the ladder with a 16-8 record. They were beaten 19-12 in week one of the Finals by the Panthers, which left them on a four-game losing streak. They’ve bounced back superbly since then though. They beat the Sharks 46-10 in week two, before a 36-20 win over the Dolphins in last week’s prelim final.
The Knights finished in 7th with a 14-10 record, which meant no second chances when it came to Finals time. In week one, they beat the Rabbitohs, 20-10, then followed that up with a 12-10 win over the Warriors in Auckland. They saved the best ’til last though, with a 22-14 win over the Panthers in last week’s prelim final.
Team news
Sydney Roosters are unchanged from last weekend’s prelim final. The only doubt is Connor Watson, who failed his HIA last week and is visiting an independent doctor to be try and be cleared for this weekend.
Roosters team: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Daly Cherry-Evans 7. Sam Walker 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Reece Robson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Salesi Foketi 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley 14. Connor Watson 15. Angus Crichton 16. Nat Butcher 17. Spencer Leniu 18. Hugo Savala 19. Cody Ramsey 20. Benaiah Ioelu 21. Tommy Talau 22. Egan Butcher
One change for Newcastle Knights with Phoenix Crossland ruled out through suspension. Harrison Graham will come into the starting side at hooker, so Kyle McCarthy joins the six-man bench.
Knights team: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Sandon Smith 8. Tyson Frizell 14. Harrison Graham 10. Cody Hopwood 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Francis Manuleleua 13. Mathew Croker 15. Lachlan Crouch 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Dylan Lucas 18. Fletcher Hunt 19. Thomas Cant 20. Kyle McCarthy 21. Diesel Hagan 22. Elijah Leaumoana
Head to head
These two sides have already met twice in 2026, and it’s 2-0 to the Roosters.
They were 38-24 winners in Round 7, before a much closer affair in Round 21, which finished 23-22.
My prediction – Sydney Roosters 24-16 Newcastle Knights
If the last three weeks have taught me anything, it’s that I shouldn’t underestimate the Knights. And yet…I just still can;t see past the Roosters. On paper, I think they’re the stronger side, they’ve got more players with big game experience and there’s more history to fall back on as a club. None of that matters on the day of course, but I still can’t help leaning towards them.
Betting tips
I’m backing the Roosters to win by 1-12 points, at 2/1. I’m saying ‘No’ to three unanswered tries as well, which is 17/10.
