NRL 2026 – Round 23 preview, predictions and tips

There are just five rounds of the regular season left to go, and every weekend brings a bit more jeopardy with it. Fantastic!

Melbourne’s 2026 bit the dust last week (if it was even still alive), and this week I think the Raiders will join them. Manly could be next to go, but despite an embarassing and record-breaking loss last week the Cowboys are still right in the thick of things.

There’s still plenty to play for in this week’s Indigenous Round, so let’s get straight in and guess how things will pan out…

*All odds are taken from Paddy Power and correct at time of writing on 5th August 2026.

Thursday 6th August – Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys

Form guide

After back-to-back wins, the Titans were taken apart by the Warriors in a 42-6 loss last weekend. They’ve slipped to 14th as a result.

The Cowboys suffered a record-breaking defeat in their Round 22 clash with the Roosters, as they went down 82-12 at home. They’ve dropped to 9th, but a win will lift them up to 7th, for at least 24 hours.

Team news

Titans team: 1. Keano Kini 2. Dean Ieremia 3. Jojo Fifita 4. AJ Brimson 5. Phillip Sami 6. Jayden Campbell 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Oliver Pascoe 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Arama Hau 12. Beau Fermor 13. Chris Randall 14. Kurtis Morrin 15. Josh Patston 16. Klese Haas 17. Cooper Bai 18. Sam Verrills 19. Adam Christensen 20. Jaylan De Groot 21. Sialetili Faeamani 22. Jett Liu

Cowboys team: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Braidon Burns 3. Zac Laybutt 4. Tomas Chester 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Jake Clifford 7. Jaxon Purdue 8. Griffin Neame 9. Soni Luke 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Kai O’Donnell 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Ethan King 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Matthew Lodge 17. Coen Hess 18. Sam McIntyre 19. Kaiden Lahrs 20. John Bateman 21. Liam Sutton 22. Ronald Philitoga

My prediction – Gold Coast Titans 10-24 North Queensland Cowboys

After last week’s inexplicable defeat, it’s hard to know what sort of Cowboys side turns up here. I expect a response though, and with respect to the Titans, there are far worse fixtures they could have faced than this.

Betting tips

The Cowboys should be ok with a -4 handicap at 10/11. I’m backing Tom Chester for an anytime try at 6/4 as well.

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Friday 7th August – New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers

Form guide

The Warriors bounced back from their Bulldogs defeat in Round 21 to beat the Titans 42-6 last weekend. They remain 3rd, and a win this week will move them to within two points of thisd week’s opponents.

The Panthers appear to be over their recent wobble after a 42-18 win over the Raiders last week. They remain top with a two point cushion over the Roosters.

Team news

Warriors team: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Ali Leiataua 4. Leka Halasima 5. Alofiana Khan-Pereira 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Te Maire Martin 8. James Fisher-Harris 9. Wayde Egan 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jacob Laban 13. Erin Clark 14. Samuel Healey 15. Tanner Stowers-Smith 16. Morgan Gannon 17. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava 18. Luke Metcalf 20. Taine Tuaupiki 21. Riley Price 22. Makaia Tafua 23. Adam Pompey

Panthers team: 1. Jaxen Edgar 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Paul Alamoti 4. Izack Tago 5. Brian To’o 6. Jack Cogger 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Freddy Lussick 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Billy Scott 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Liam Henry 17. Billy Phillips 18. Jack Cole 19. Blaize Talagi 20. Jesse McLean 21. Luron Patea 22. Kalani Leuluai-going

My prediction – New Zealand Warriors 16-18 Penrith Panthers

This should be a cracker of a game, and I can;t split these two. I’m leaning towards the Panthers though, who usually know how to get the job done when it matters.

Betting tips

I think this will be extremely close, so I’m going straight to a Penrith win by 1-12 points at 2/1. Thomas Jenkins has scored in 13 games this year, and in 12 of those he’s scored two or more tries, including last week. So, at 11/4 to score 2+ tries again this week, I can’t ignore the in-form winger.

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Friday 7th August – Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Form guide

The Roosters broke all sorts of records with their 82-12 demolition of the Cowboys last weekend, which has kept them in 2nd.

The Bulldogs continued their own fine form with a 36-22 win at Melbourne to move into the top eight. It was a sixth win in their last seven for the Dogs.

Team news

Roosters team: 1. James Tedesco 2. Billy Smith 3. Hugo Savala 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Daly Cherry-Evans 7. Sam Walker 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Reece Robson 10. Spencer Leniu 11. Salesi Foketi 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley 14. Connor Watson 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Nat Butcher 17. Egan Butcher 18. Cody Ramsey 19. Tommy Talau 20. Rex Bassingthwaighte 21. Benaiah Ioelu 22. Delasalle Va’a

Bulldogs team: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Matt Burton 4. Enari Tuala 5. Jethro Rinakama 6. Stephen Crichton 7. Lachlan Galvin 8. Max King 9. Bailey Hayward 10. Leo Thompson 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Jaeman Salmon 14. Kurt Mann 15. Josh Curran 16. Harry Hayes 17. Sitili Tupouniua 19. Bronson Xerri 20. Jake Turpin 21. Alekolasimi Jones 22. Sean O’Sullivan 23. Jonathan Sua

My prediction – Sydney Roosters 24-18 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

This is another one that looks too close to call on current form, but I’m backing the Roosters here. They’re a genuine Premiership threat, whereas I can’t see the Bulldogs doing much more than just making the top eight at this stage, despite their recent surge in form.

Betting tips

There’s not much screaming out at me in this one, but I’ll back the Roosters to win by 1-12 points at 21/10. Robert Toia looks the best-priced for an anytime try at 7/5.

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Saturday 8th August – Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles

Form guide

The Storm were beaten 36-22 by the Bulldogs last week to effectively bring their season to a close. Only a miracle can take them into the top eight now, as they sit down in 12th – six points adrift.

Manly are in the last-chance saloon themselves after a horrible run of form. They had a bye last weekend, but they’re on a four-game losing streak, which has seen them slip to 10th. A win this weekend could see them sneak back into the top eight though.

Team news

Storm team: 1. Sualauvi Faalogo 2. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Moses Leo 6. Cameron Munster 7. Hayden Watson 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Tyran Wishart 10. Josh King 11. Cooper Clarke 12. Oryn Keeley 13. Trent Loiero 14. Trent Toelau 15. Shawn Blore 16. Davvy Moale 17. Angus Hinchey 18. Joe Chan 19. Jack Hetherington 20. Gabriel Satrick 21. Stanley Huen 22. Manaia Waitere

Sea Eagles team: 1. Lehi Hopoate 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Blake Wilson 6. Joey Walsh 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Brandon Wakeham 10. Ethan Bullemor 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Corey Waddell 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Nathan Brown 16. Simione Laiafi 17. Fletcher Baker 18. Jackson Shereb 19. Josh Feledy 20. Onitoni Large 21. Nicholas Lenaz 22. Hugo Hart

My prediction – Melbourne Storm 12-18 Manly Sea Eagles

Until this year it was very rare for me to go against Melbourne at home, but they’re a shadow of the team they once were. Although Cameron Munster is back this week, they’re still missing Harry Grant and Jahrome Hughes, and I can’t see them overcoming that. Manly need a big performance though. but with more on the line than their opponents, I think they can do it.

Betting tips

I’ll take Manly with a -2 handicap at 10/11. They’re 5/4 in the half-time/full-time market as well, which looks ok to me. I’ll also have a small punt on draw/Manly in the same market at 14/1. Put it this way – I can’t see Melbourne leading at half-time or full-time, but they can make this a close one.

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Saturday 8th August – The Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos

Form guide

The Dolphins sneaked past the Dragons last weekend in a 28-22 victory on the road. They remain 5th, with a four-point cushion to the 9th-placed Cowboys as they eye up a first Finals spot in their history.

The Broncos were soundly beaten 30-6 by the Knights last weekend to drop to 15th. That made it 13 losses from their 19 games for last year’s Premiers, whi must be counting down the days until the end of the season.

Team news

Dolphins team: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jack Bostock 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Francis Molo 11. Connelly Lemuelu 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Morgan Knowles 14. Kurt Donoghoe 15. Max Plath 16. Tom Gilbert 17. Felise Kaufusi 18. Sebastian Su’a 19. Brad Schneider 20. Brian Pouniu 21. Tevita Naufahu 22. Jake Averillo

Broncos team: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Deine Mariner 5. Grant Anderson 6. Ezra Mam 7. Thomas Duffy 8. Xavier Willison 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Jaiyden Hunt 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Ben Hunt 15. Va’a Semu 16. Ben Talty 17. Gehamat Shibasaki 18. Jack Gosiewski 19. Hayze Perham 20. Blake Mozer 21. Jesse Arthars 22. Aublix Tawha

My prediction – The Dolphins 36-12 Brisbane Broncos

The Broncos have won six of their seven games against their newest rivals in the NRL, but the tide has started to turn this year. The Dolphins should be sniffing blood this week against a Brisbane side who’ll be the first reigning Premiers to miss out on Finals in 20 years. Anything other than a home win would be a surprise here.

Betting tips

The Dolphins should be pretty safe with a -8 handicap at 10/11. I'[m jumping straight on the 13+ winning margin at a very nice 6/4 as well.

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Saturday 8th August – South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels

Form guide

The Rabbitohs’ inconsistency continued in a 32-16 loss to the Sharks last week. They’ve slipped to 7th, but remain in the top eight on points difference.

The Eels squeezed past the Tigers in a 16-13 victory last week to climb to 13th. It was just a seventh win in 19 games for Parra, who could still climb a couple of spots come the end of the year.

Team news

Rabbitohs team: 1. Matthew Dufty 2. Alex Johnston 3. Tallis Duncan 4. Jack Wighton 5. Campbell Graham 6. Cody Walker 7. Ashton Ward 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Brandon Smith 10. Keaon Koloamatangi 11. David Fifita 12. Adam Elliott 13. Cameron Murray 14. Jye Gray 15. Lachlan Hubner 16. Sean Keppie 17. Jamie Humphreys 18. Jayden Sullivan 19. Thomas Fletcher 20. Liam Le Blanc 21. Moala Graham-Taufa 22. John Radel

Eels team: 1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Brian Kelly 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Jordan Samrani 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Sam Tuivaiti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Luca Moretti 11. Jack Williams 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack de Belin 14. Saxon Pryke 15. Junior Paulo 16. Teancum Brown 17. Kelma Tuilagi 18. Joash Papali’i 19. Jezaiah Funa-Luta 20. Toni Mataele 21. Sean Russell 22. Ryley Smith

My prediction – South Sydney Rabbitohs 30-16 Parramatta Eels

With the Bulldogs and the Warriors to come in their next tow, the Bunnies have to win this to keep their Finals hopes going strong. The returns of Cameron Murray, David Fifita and Tallis Duncan will be a big boost, and against a side with nothing to play for, I can see the Rabbitohs getting the win here.

Betting tips

Matt Dufty looks appealing at 17/10 for an anytime try in this one. I’ll back the Rabbitohs to score over 27.5 points as well, which is 5/6.

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Sunday 9th August – Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights

Form guide

The Raiders were beaten 42-18 by the Panthers last week to leave their Finals hopes on the brink. They’re four points short of the top eight with little room for error between now and the end of the season.

The Knights ended a run of three straight defeats with a 30-6 win at Brisbane to climb to 6th. They’re just two points inside the top eight, but they’ll have one eye on a top four spot still, with the Sharks four points above them.

Team news

Raiders team: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Jed Stuart 3. Simi Sasagi 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Ethan Sanders 8. Corey Horsburgh 9. Owen Pattie 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Zac Hosking 12. Ata Mariota 13. Morgan Smithies 14. Tom Starling 15. Joseph Roddy 16. Josh Papali’i 17. Daine Laurie 18. Savelio Tamale 19. Matt Nicholson 20. Coby Black 21. Mark Tuialii 22. Vena Patuki-Case

Knights team: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Sandon Smith 8. Tyson Frizell 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Trey Mooney 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Francis Manuleleua 13. Mathew Croker 14. Harrison Graham 15. Cody Hopwood 16. Lachlan Crouch 17. Thomas Cant 18. Fletcher Hunt 19. Brodie Jones 20. Toby Winter 21. Kyle McCarthy 22. Diesel Hagan

My prediction – Canberra Raiders 10-16 Newcastle Knights

I have a feeling the Knights will get the win here and finish the Raiders’ top eight chances off in the process. Granted, Newcastle’s form has been a bit off, but all three of their recent defeats were by two points or less, so against a side sitting down in 11th, I expect them to get the victory in this one.

Betting tips

This one’s split straight down the middle, which makes it an easy shout to jump on a Knights win at 1/1. Dom Young did the business for me last week, so I’m backing him for an anytime try again, at 1/1.

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Sunday 9th August – St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks

Form guide

It was a familiar feeling for the Dragons last weekend. Good effort, but not good enough. Their 28-22 loss to the Dolphins means it’s still just two wins from 19 games, and the wooden spoon is all but assured.

The Sharks continued their march towards a top four spot with a 32-16 win over the Rabbitohs. They’ve won nine of their last 10 to sit 4th, with half an eye on top spot Penrith, who are just four points ahead.

Team news

Dragons team: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Setu Tu 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Tyrell Sloan 6. Lyhkan King-Togia 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga 9. Damien Cook 10. Emre Guler 11. Dylan Egan 12. Hamish Stewart 13. Ryan Couchman 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Josh Kerr 16. Jacob Halangahu 17. Jacob Webster 18. Daniel Atkinson 19. Mathew Feagai 20. Luciano Leilua 21. Christian Tuipulotu 22. Ryan Hutchinson

Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Mawene Hiroti 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Jesse Colquhoun 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Hohepa Puru 15. Billy Burns 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Thomas Hazelton 18. Michael Gabrael 19. Braden Hamlin-Uele 20. Niwhai Puru 21. Samuel Stonestreet 22. Tuku Hau Tapuha

My prediction – St George Illawarra Dragons 12-48 Cronulla Sharks

This could be a bloodbath, although the least I expect from the Dragons is to not roll over. Cronulla are flying, while St George’s season has been over for months. This should be as routine as it gets in the NRL.

Betting tips

The Sharks should be a shoo-in with a -14 handicap at 10/11. I expect them to score a few points, so Jesse Ramien will be my anytime try pick at 7/5.

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