State of Origin 2026 – Game one preview, prediction and tips
Where’s the year going? It only feels like last weekend we were kicking off the NRL season in Vegas, and now Origin’s back already.
Queensland come into the 2026 series with the shield after their 2-1 victory in 2025. It was their 25th series win to New South Wales’ 17, but this is a whole new year with a few new faces, and as we know, anything can happen. Especially this year, when the new eligibility rules have opened Origin up to a whole lot more NRL players.
Game one takes place in Sydney this week, then it’s off to the MCG for game two, before the series wraps up in Brisbane in early July.
More on games two and three nearer the time, but first up, let’s dive into game one. Starting with the squads…
Queensland squad for game one
Queensland debutants
Six players could be set for their Maroons debuts in game one – Jojo Fifita, Sam Walker, Max Plath, Briton Nikora, Ezra Mam and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki.
Fifita has been named on the wing, despite all of his Titans appearances this year coming in the centres. Still, with five tries in 10 games for a struggling side, he’s certainly earned his call-up.
Sam Walker is named in the halves after a great start to the year with the Roosters. He replaces last year’s Wally Lewis medalist, Tom Dearden, who’s ruled out through injury. With 96 NRL appearances under his belt, Walker’s certainly ready for his opportunity.
Max Plath is the final debutant to be named in the starting side. The Dolphins man has been sensational to start the year, but he’s been named at lock forward instead of his usual spot at hooker. With no specialist hooker on the bench, don’t be surprised to see him shuffled around if Harry Grant comes off the field for any reason.
On the bench, Sharks man Briton Nikora has been named in the number 14 jumper after 168 first grade appearances, while Ezra Mam and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki have been named in 18 and 20 respectively, so don’t be surprised if they don’t make it on matchday.
Queensland absentees
Reece Walsh is the headline absentee for the Maroons, who have opted for Kalyn Ponga at fullback instead.
Tom Dearden is the other major name missing, although he’s injured. Valentine Holmes is usually a mainstay at this time of year too, and as Queensland’s third-highest points scorer, his omission is a bit of a surprise. Then again, his form in a dreadful Dragons side hasn’t warranted a call-up for game one.
Xavier Coates is also missing through injury. The Melbourne winger has six tries in his 13 Maroons appearances.
New South Wales squad for game one
New South Wales debutants
Six players could make their New South Wales debuts in game one – Tolutau Koula, Addin Fonua-Blake, Victor Radley, Ethan Strange, Blayke Brailey and Casey McLean.
Tolu Koula is named on the wing after a stellar start to the year with Manly. The 23-year-old plays in the centres for his club side, but he’ll have no problems moving over one place.
The other starter is Sharks prop Addin Fonua-Blake, who makes his Origin debut at the age of 30, and with 200+ NRL games under his belt.
Roosters second rower Victor Radley is named on the bench alongside Blayke Brailey, while Ethan Strange, Casey McLean and Dylan Lucas are part of the extended squad.
New South Wales absentees
Dylan Edwards is the notable absentee for the Blues, with James Tedesco preferred to him at fullback.
Despite being named to start, Mitch Moses is a doubt, so Ethan Strange is likely come in for his NSW debut. That means no spot in the halves for Jarome Luai, despite the outstanding partnership he enjoyed with Nathan Cleary at club level.
Last year’s series
Queensland were 2-1 victors in 2025, bouncing back from a home defeat in game one.
That 18-6 loss at Suncorp Stadium came despite a sin bin for Blues winger Brian To’o.
Queensland edged game two in Perth after a stunning first half saw them go in 26-6 at the break. The Blues rallied to get back to 26-24, but couldn’t find a late try to nick the series.
The Maroons came flying out the blocks in game three as well, as they bagged a 20-0 half-time lead in Sydney. The Blues won the second half 12-4, but it was too little too late, as the Maroons won 24-4 to claim their 25th Origin series.
The coaches
This will be Queensland coach Billy Slater’s fifth series at the helm. The legendary fullback is joint-ninth in the Maroons’ all-time appearance chart with 31 games under his belt, but this is his first coaching role. He’s won 7/12 games as coach, which includes three series wins out of four.
New South Wales coach Laurie Daley is in his second stint in charge of the Blues. He coached them from 2013 to 2017 before being reappointed ahead of the 2025 series. He won 6/15 games in his first spell at the helm, which included just one series win in 2014 and a record-breaking 52-6 loss the following year.
Notable stats
- The Blues have lost three of their last four games at Accor Stadium.
- The Maroons have lost Game 1 only once under coach Billy Slater.
- The Blues have lost their last four series-openers in Sydney.
- Maroons fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has scored 11 tries in 10 Origin appearances.
- Winger Brian To’o requires one try to become the outright leading Origin tryscorer for NSW.
My prediction
New South Wales 22-14 Queensland
The relaxing of the eligibility rules has completely changed the dynamic of Origin, so this year’s series feels more unpredictable than ever. With up to 12 players making their debuts this year, a lot will come down to how well they handle the added pressure.
If the Blues are to win the series, they need to get off to a strong start at home, and I can see them doing it this week. I’m expecting Queensland to win a series decider at Suncorp in a few weeks’ time, but that’s a way off yet. For game one, I have a feeling the Blues could get the job done.
Betting tips
With no form to go on, the first Origin is always a betting minefield. On the plus side, there’s plenty of value to be had if you can get it right.
I’m going for Brian To’o to score an anytime try in the first half, which is 12/5. I’m also backing there NOT to be three unanswered tries, which is 7/5. Lastly, I’m backing New South Wales with a -2 handicap at 10/11.
