State of Origin 2025 – Game three preview, predictions and tips
For the second straight year, Origin is going to a decider after Queensland levelled the series in Perth three weeks ago. The Maroons are chasing their 25th series victory in Sydney this week, while the Blues are looking for number 18. Hopefully it’s an absolute belter, and to get you in the mood, here’s our full guide to the series decider for 2025…
*All betting odds are taken from Paddy Power and correct at time of writing on 7th July 2025.
Game two recap
After a disappointing display in Game I, Queensland got off to the worst possible start in Perth, as Brian To’o crossed for New South Wales’ opening try after just four minutes. Zac Lomax converted to give the Blues a 6-0 lead, but the rest of the half was one-way traffic as the Maroons bounced back.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow crossed for two tries, Cameron Munster added a third and Kurt Capewell got in on the act too. Valentine Holmes converted all four, plus a penalty, to give Queensland a healthy 26-6 half-time advantage.
In the second half, it was completely the other way, as New South Wales scored four unanswered tries of their own.
To’o scored two of them to complete his hat-trick, while Stephen Crichton and Angus Crichton added the others. Unfortunately for the Blues, Lomax only managed to convert one of them, meaning they fell just short in a 26-24 loss.
New South Wales squad for game three
The Blues are unchanged from 1-17, although Nathan Cleary, Payne Haas, Brian To’o, Hudson Young and Jarome Luai all come into the game with slight injury concerns.
Jacob Kiraz, Bradman Best and Lindsay Smith have joined the extended squad, while Matt Burton has dropped out.
New South Wales players to watch
Nathan Cleary has been playing through the pain barrier in the first two games, and the Blues will need a big effort from him if they’re to secure the series. His kicking was way off in Game I and Zac Lomax took over from the tee in Game II, although he didn’t fare much better. Whether Cleary gets the chance to redeem himself again this week remains to be seen, but even if he’s not taking the shots at goal, NSW will need him to lead them around the park in open play.
Brian To’o has been sensational in the first two games of the series, scoring four tries and making the most run metres, with over 220 in both games. I’m expecting nothing less than another big performance from him again this week, and if he pumps out similar numbers, he’s in with a great shout of winning the Wally Lewis Medal for Player of the Series.
Queensland squad for game three
Queensland have made two changes to their starting side. Kalyn Ponga is ruled out through injury, so Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow switches to fullback in his place, which means a debut for Brisbane’s Gehamat Shibasaki in the centres.
The other change sees Moeaki Fotuaika dropped from the front row, with veteran Josh Papalii recalled, two years after retiring from the Origin arena.
Reece Walsh, J’maine Hopgood and Josh Kerr all join the extended squad for the first time in 2025, while Ezra Mam drops out.
Queensland players to watch
After a stop-start NRL career with just 30 appearances in seven seasons, Gehamat Shibasaki is having an incredible year for the Broncos in 2025, and it’s being topped off with an Origin debut this week. It’s a great story of perseverance for the 27-year-old, but this is a real sink-or-swim moment for him in this game, as to whether we see him back in a Maroons jumper again next year.
At the opposite end of the scale, Josh Papalii will make his 24th Origin appearance this week, and his first since 2022. The 33-year-old is enjoying a fine season with the Raiders, but it’s still a huge call for coach Billy Slater to bring him out of rep retirement for this game.
My prediction
New South Wales 32-10 Queensland
I’ve got plenty of predictions horribly wrong this year and this could be another one, but based on what I’ve seen in the first two games, I can only see one winner.
In four halves of footy so far in the series, the Blues have dominated the Maroons in three of them, and if Game II lasted another five minutes I’m sure NSW would have gone on to win it. As it was, they still outscored Queensland five tries to four, but Zac Lomax had an off-day with the boot.
This time around though, and with home advantage, I’m backing the Blues to win this and win it well.
Betting tips
Brian To’o has been in sensational form for New South Wales in the first two games, and I’d fully expect him to score at least one try this week. He’s just 8/13 for an anytime try, but for better value, he’s 15/8 to be either the first, second or third tryscorer.
He’s also a huge 20/1 to be Man of the Match. Fellow winger Zac Lomax is the same price, and with Lomax likely to be on kicking duties, that’s a much better price than some of the other contenders. If I had to choose though, I’m going with To’o.
There’s no such thing as a safe bet when it comes to Origin, but seeing as I’m tipping the Blues to win by 22 points, the 10/11 on a -8 handicap should be a shoo-in on that basis.
For better value though, you can get 9/5 on a 1-12 winning margin, and 7/5 on a 13+ winning margin, so even if you bet on both of those, you’ll make a better profit – providing NSW get the job done.
