NRL 2025 – Round 12 preview, predictions and tips
The squads have been named for State of Origin, so this weekend we’ll really find out who are the contenders and who are the pretenders in the NRL.
Some clubs are more affected by Origin call-ups than others of course, and seven teams have the weekend off, but for those fringe players getting a call-up this week, it’s a huge chance to impress and either cement themselves in first grade or earn a second chance – Dom Young, I’m looking at you.
So without further ado, let’s get right into it…
Thursday 22nd May – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs The Dolphins – Accor Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Bulldogs have been pushed close in the past couple of weeks, but they still managed to find a way past the Raiders and the Roosters, meaning they remain top of the ladder and have a 9-1 record.
As for the Dolphins, it’s just one win from their last four games, leaving them 14th coming into this round, with a 4-7 record.
Team news
Bulldogs trio Stephen Crichton, Max King and Kurt Mann are on Origin duty, while Jacob Kiraz and Daniel Suluka-Fifita are missing through injury and concussion, respectively. They do at least have Josh Curran back from suspension, while Blake Taafe will make his first start of the year and Jake Turpin and Sam Hughes will play their first NRL games of the season from the bench.
Bulldogs team: 1. Connor Tracey 2. Blake Wilson 3. Bronson Xerri 4. Blake Taaffe 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Matt Burton 7. Toby Sexton 8. Lipoi Hopoi 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Josh Curran 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Harry Hayes 13. Bailey Hayward 14. Jake Turpin 15. Kurtis Morrin 16. Samuel Hughes 17. Luke Smith 19. Drew Hutchison 20. Jonathan Sua 21. Jack Underhill 22. Zyon Maiu’u 23. Mitchell Woods
The Dolphins have only lost one player to Origin – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – so, Jake Averillo replaces him at fullback and Max Feagai comes into the centres for his club debut. Tom Gilbert is missing through injury, so Oryn Keeley comes into the 17, while Kulikefu Finefeuiaki is in Queensland’s extended squad for Origin, but should be able to play in this game.
My prediction – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 16-12 The Dolphins
Even though they’re missing a few, I’m still expecting the Bulldogs to have a little too much for a struggling Dolphins outfit.
Betting tips
NRL games over the Origin period are notoriously hard to call, so I’m going with anytime try scorers in this match. Blake Taafe will be eager to impress in his first start of 2025 and I’m backing him to cross anytime, at 5/2.
Friday 23rd May – Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles – CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Form guide
The Eels were convincing winners in Round 11, beating the Knights, 6-28, for only their third win of the year. That lifted them off the bottom and into 16th.
As for Manly, they were highly impressive up in Townsville, seeing off the Cowboys, 6-24. That win lifted the Sea Eagles into the top six ahead of this weekend.
Team news
The Eels have lost two players to Origin, but it’s arguably their best two – Mitch Moses and Zac Lomax. Dean Hawkins replaces Moses in the halves, while Jordan Samrani comes in for Lomax, with Samrani named in the centres and Sean Russell moving out to the wing. Kelma Tuilagi is back from suspension this week, as well, which pushes Luca Moretti to the bench. Matt Doorey is on the bench too, after playing reserve grade last weekend.
Manly have only lost one player to Origin – halfback Daly Cherry-Evans. His absence means Jake Arthur starts at number seven. Jake Trbojevic might’ve been a NSW call-up, but he suffered a concussion last weekend, so he’s out. Matt Lodge has been named on the bench for his first NRL game since last year’s semi-final, while Haumole Olakau’atu is expected to play, despite being named in NSW’ extended squad. Lachlan Croker makes his return from injury on the bench.
Sea Eagles team: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jakob Arthur 8. Ethan Bullemor 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jazz Tevaga 14. Lachlan Croker 15. Corey Waddell 16. Nathan Brown 17. Matthew Lodge 18. Clayton Faulalo 19. Brandon Wakeham 20. Tommy Talau 21. Michael Chee Kam 22. Caleb Navale
My prediction – Parramatta Eels 10-24 Manly Sea Eagles
I’d be surprised if Manly don’t win this one. The Eels have been poor more often than not this year, and with Mitch Moses and Zac Lomax missing, some of the fringe players will need to step up this week, but I can;t see it happening.
Betting tips
Manly are 10/11 with a -6 handicap, which I’m backing all day long. A Manly win by 1-12 points is 15/8, while a 13+ victory is 8/5, so get on both of those and you’ll still make a tidy profit if they get the job done.
Saturday 24th May – Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights – Carrington Park, Bathurst
Form guide
Team news
Origin has hit the Panthers hard, with Nathan Cleary, Isaiah Yeo, Dylan Edwards, Liam Martin and Brian To’o all named in the NSW team. That means Brad Schneider takes over at halfback, Daine Laurie comes in at fullback and Thomas Jenkins comes onto the wing in straight swaps for Cleary, Edwards and To’o. Casey McLean and Matt Eisenhuth also join the starting side, with Luke Garner and Lindsay Smith shuffling to accommodate them. Luke Sommerton, Preston Riki and Jack Cole join the bench.
Panthers team: 1. Daine Laurie 2. Paul Alamoti 3. Izack Tago 4. Casey McLean 5. Thomas Jenkins 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Brad Schneider 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Matt Eisenhuth 12. Liam Henry 13. Lindsay Smith 14. Luke Sommerton 15. Preston Riki 16. Luron Patea 17. Jack Cole 18. Trent Toelau 19. Austin Dias 20. Jesse McLean 21. Harrison Hassett 22. Billy Phillips
Kalyn Ponga is the only Knights player called up for Origin, so his fullback spot is covered by current five-eighth Fletcher Sharpe. That means Tyson Gamble switches to number six with Jack Cogger the new man alongside him. Elsewhere, Kyle McCarthy comes into the centres for his second NRL game, so Dylan Lucas returns to the back row and Thomas Cant shifts to the bench. Leo Thompson is back from a head knock, replacing the injured Jacob Saifiti, while Jack Hetherington drops to 18th man.
Knights team: 1. Fletcher Sharpe 2. James Schiller 3. Dane Gagai 4. Kyle McCarthy 5. Fletcher Hunt 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jack Cogger 8. Tyson Frizell 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Dylan Lucas 12. Kai Pearce-Paul 13. Adam Elliott 14. Jayden Brailey 15. Mathew Croker 16. Brodie Jones 17. Thomas Cant 18. Jack Hetherington 19. Paul Bryan 20. Matthew Arthur 21. Connor Votano 22. Jackson Hastings
My prediction – Penrith Panthers 10-14 Newcastle Knights
This is arguably the toughest game of the round to predict. The Knights have been toothless in attack this year, but with the Panthers losing five players to Origin, there won’t be a better chance to play them than this weekend, and the Knights should be looking to take advantage.
Betting tips
The Knights have been given a +8 handicap, so the 23/10 for an outright win looks very generous.
Saturday 24th May – Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla Sharks – Industree Group Stadium, Gosford
Form guide
The Roosters were cruelly beaten in the dying minutes last weekend by the table-topping Bulldogs. That defeat dropped the Chooks to 11th, but they’re just one point outside the top eight.
The Sharks, meanwhile, continued their fine form with a third-straight win last week. They saw off Melbourne Storm, 31-26, to stay in 5th, and crucially open up a four-point cushion to 9th-placed Brisbane.
Team news
Like the Penrith Panthers, the Roosters have five players missing to Origin, but surprisingly James Tedesco isn’t among them. Angus Crichton, Connor Watson, Lindsay Collins, Robert Toia, Spencer Leniu are the five split across both camps, so Dom Young, Makahesi Makatoa, Salesi Foketi, Benaiah Ioelu and Taylor Losalu come into the 17. For Young, it’s probably his final chance to remain a Rooster having been dropped for the past few games and shopped around to rival clubs.
The Sharks are one of the few teams unaffected by Origin, so it’s just injuries for them to contend with. Sam Stonestreet is ruled out for the next six weeks at least, but Mawene Hiroti returns for his first game since Round 8.
Sharks team: 1. William Kennedy 2. Mawene Hiroti 3. Jesse Ramien 4. KL Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Billy Burns 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jesse Colquhoun 16. Siosifa Talakai 17. Braden Hamlin-Uele 18. Hohepa Puru 19. Tuku Hau Tapuha 20. Jayden Berrell 21. Teig Wilton 22. Chris Veaila
My prediction – Sydney Roosters 8-22 Cronulla Sharks
I can’t see past the Sharks in this one. The Roosters have been one of the hardest hit by Origin, whereas the Sharks are in form and undisturbed by game one of the series. so they should win this.
Betting tips
I’m backing Cronulla to win by 13+, which is priced at 5/4. I like the look of an anytime try for Jesse Ramien, too, at 15/8.
Sunday 25th May – New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders – Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Form guide
The Warriors continue to go from strength to strength, with last week’s 12-16 win over the Dolphins making it five in a row. They sit 2nd on the ladder, and barring a major collapse, a finals spot looks a formality at this stage.
The Raiders are right on their tail, sitting in 3rd and just two points behind their opponents this weekend. A 40-24 win over the Titans in Round 11 made it six wins from their last seven games.
Team news
The Warriors have one player missing to Origin – prop Mitch Barnett – while fellow front rower James Fisher-Harris is suspended. Bunty Afoa and Jackson Ford come in for them.
Warriors team: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Adam Pompey 4. Kurt Capewell 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Luke Metcalf 8. Jackson Ford 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Leka Halasima 12. Marata Niukore 13. Erin Clark 14. Te Maire Martin 15. Jacob Laban 16. Demitric Vaimauga 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith 18. Tom Ale 20. Samuel Healey 21. Tanah Boyd 22. Ali Leiataua 23. Taine Tuaupiki
Hudson Young is missing for the Raiders due to Origin, so Simi Sasagi moves into the starting side and Noah Martin joins the bench for his NRL debut.
Raiders team: 1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Corey Horsburgh 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Simi Sasagi 12. Zac Hosking 13. Morgan Smithies 14. Owen Pattie 15. Noah Martin 16. Josh Papali’i 17. Ata Mariota 18. Jed Stuart 19. Trey Mooney 20. Danny Levi 21. Pasami Saulo 22. Chevy Stewart
My prediction – New Zealand Warriors 14-20 Canberra Raiders
This should be the match of the round. 2nd vs 3rd with just one player on each side missing to Origin, so it promises to be a cracker which could go either way. I’m tipping Canberra though. Of the Warriors’ five straight wins, four of them have been by four points or less, and surely they can’t keep nicking these tight ones.
Betting tips
The Warriors are slight favourites for this one, so I’m backing Canberra in the outright market at 6/5. I’m expecting it to be close too, so the Raiders by 1-12 points looks good at 11/5.
