State of Origin 2026 – Game three preview, predictions and tips
For the third straight year, Origin is going to a decider after Queensland levelled the series in Melbourne three weeks ago. The Maroons are chasing their 26th series victory in Brisbane this week, while the Blues are looking for number 18. It promises to be an absolute cracker at Suncorp Stadium, and to get you ready, here’s our bumoer guide to game three…
*All betting odds are taken from Paddy Power and correct at time of writing on 7th July 2026.
Game two recap
After a narrow loss in Game I, Queensland took an early 2-0 lead in Perth through a Sam Walker penalty. They found themselves 12-2 down after just 20 minutes though, as Kotoni Staggs and Mark Nawaqanitawase crossed the line, but a try from Trent Loiero made it 12-8 at the break.
It was one-way traffic in the second half, as three tries in nine minutes from Selwyn Cobbo (x2) and Jojo Fifita gave the Maroons a commanding 26-8 lead.
Nawaqanitawase crossed for his second to reduce the deficit, but Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Lindsay Collins crossed, before Cobbo completed his hat-trick to make it 44-18.
A late Mitch Barnett try gave the Blues some consolation, but they were comfortably beatem 44-24.
Queensland squad for game three
The Maroons have made three changes to their squad from game two.
Patrick Carrigan, Corey Horsburgh and Jeremiah Nanai return. Lindsay Collins misses out with concussion, while Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and Heilum Luki drop out.
Queensland players to watch
Selwyn Cobbo is the man to watch for the Maroons after his hat-trick in game three. It took the Dolphins winger’s Origin record to five tries in eight games, and he’s got eight in 11 for his club this year too.
Sam Walker has taken to Origin like a duck to water after making his Maroons debut in game one. Were it not for Tom Dearden’s injury, he may not even have played, but the Roosters halfback has grabbed his opportunity with both hands. He’s kicked 11/11 from the tee in this series and clocked two try assists in game one. A big game this week could easily see him win the Wally Lewis medal for Player of the Series.
New South Wales squad for game three
New South Wales have made a number of changes to their squad as they look to seal an unlikely series win on enemy territory.
The big news is the omission of winger Brian To’o. He’s been replaced by Jack Bostock on the wing, while Tolu Koula and Kotoni Staggs have been replaced in the centres by Bradman Best and Stephen Crichton.
Liam Martin takes over in the second-row from Dylan Lucas, while Blayke Brailey returns for Apisai Koroisau on the bench. Haumole Olakau’atu takes the place of Victor Radley, who remains 20th man.
New South Wales players to watch
All eyes will be on Blues winger Jack Bostock, who makes his Origin debut this week. The Dolphins winger has been in fine form for his club since returning from an ACL injury, with four tries in eight games this year. However, with Bostock taking the place of Brian To’o, he needs a bigger performance than most to prove his coach right.
One of the big criticisms of Blues halfback Nathan Cleary is that he’s never really ‘owned Origin’. It seems harsh on the 28-year-old, who has three series wins to his name, but until he wins the Wally Lewis medal, it might be a tag that always sticks with him. If NSW are to get the job done here, a lot of it will come down to his right boot.
My prediction
Queensland 36-18 New South Wales
The Blues have won a decider in Brisbane very recently (2024), but they were the stronger team throughout that series, and only a Joseph Sua’ali’i red card stopped them from winning it 3-0 in my opinion.
This year, the only reason they find themselves level is because of Kalyn Ponga’s red card in game one (again, just my opinion.)
As long as the Maroons can keep 13 men on the pitch in this one, I can see them getting the job done in front of their home crowd, and by at least two tries.
Betting tips
Queensland have a -4 handicap, which I’m happy to jump straight on at 10/11.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidwo and Selwyn Cobbo are both 1/1 for an anytime try, and I’m backing both of those as well.
Sam Walker is my pick for Player of the Match as well, at 11/2. If you can find a market for Player of the Series, then back him in that too.
