NRL 2026 – Round 1 preview, predictions and tips – Part 1 – Las Vegas
Finally, the NRL is back and for the third year in a row, we’re kicking the new season off in Las Vegas.
Four new teams are getting the chance to head Stateside this year – the Knights, the Cowboys, the Bulldogs and the Dragons.
That means it’s just the two games for us to preview this week, with everyone else getting their campaign underway next weekend.
Let’s take a look at what we can expect from the Vegas-bound sides this weekend…
*All odds are taken from Paddy Power and correct at time of writing on 26th February 2026.
Sunday 1st March – Newcastle Knights vs North Queensland Cowboys – Allegiant Stadium
Form guide
The Knights picked up the wooden spoon in 2025, and if their pre-season form is anything to go by, things aren’t looking much better in 2026. They’ve been beaten 28-18 by the Dragons, and 28-0 by the Bulldogs in their two trial matches this year.
The Cowboys had a disappointing year of their own in 2025, finishing down in 12th. However, it’s two wins from two for them in pre-season – a 34-30 win over the Bulldogs and a 66-24 thumping of the Panthers.
Team news
The Knights have skipper Kalyn Ponga available again for the first time since Round 17 last year. Star signing Dylan Brown starts in the halves, while former Rooster Sandon Smith is named on the bench.
For the Cowboys, Zac Laybutt is banned for the opening two games of the season. His absence means a first appearance since Round 17 in 2024 for Tom Chester, who missed the whole of last year with an ACL injury. New recruit Reed Mahoney starts at hooker, while former Panther Soni Luke is on the bench.
My prediction – Newcastle Knights 14-30 North Queensland Cowboys
The Knights were dreadful in attack last year, but the arrival of Dylan Brown and the return of Kalyn Ponga should see them post some more points. That said, the Cowboys still look the stronger side to me, and I’m expecting them to start the year with a win here.
Betting tips
I’m jumping straight on the Cowboys with a -4 handicap at 10/11. Jaxon Purdue scored 13 tries in 16 games when playing in the centres last year, so at 7/5 for an anytime try, he’s ridiculously good value.
Sunday 1st March – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Allegiant Stadium
Form guide
The Bulldogs finished 3rd in 2025 before going out in straight sets in the Finals. They’re 1-1 in pre-season, with a 34-30 loss to the Cowboys followed by a 28-0 win over the Knights.
The Dragons finished a lowly 15th in 2025, and they’re also 1-1 in pre-season. A 28-18 win over the Knights was followed by a 28-24 loss to the Rabbitohs.
Team news
Matt Burton is fit to start for the Bulldogs after a hamstring scare in pre-season, while Marcelo Montoya is back from an ankle injury which ruled him out of the Finals last year. New signing Sean O’Sullivan is named on the bench.
Daniel Atkinson will make his Dragons debut in the halves, while winger Setu Tu makes his NRL debut after joining from the Warriors. Another new recruit – David Fale – is named on the bench.
My prediction – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 46-18 St George Illawarra Dragons
I’m tipping the Bulldogs to go all the way this year, so this is a game I’d expect them to win. A 28-point margin might be a bit heavy, but I’m not expecting them to have too many problems getting past the Dragons in this one.
Betting tips
The Bulldogs with a -8 handicap is too good to pass up at 10/11. A double on Jacob Kiraz to score a try and the Bulldogs to win has been boosted to 9/5, which also looks too tempting to miss.
