2024 NRL finals preview – elimination finals
For two teams, their season will be over this weekend and there are no second chances. As for the other two, they’ll head through to week two of the finals, with clashes against the losers from this weekend’s qualifying finals. It’s all to play for in the NRL Finals, so let’s take a look at week one’s elimination finals.
North Queensland Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday 14th September
How they got here
After an inconsistent start to the year with just four wins from their opening 10 games, the Cowboys found their form over the second half of the season. They head into the finals with six wins from their final seven games of the regular season, including a 6-44 hammering of the Bulldogs last weekend.
The Knights have found their form just in time as well, and head into the finals off the back of three straight wins. They’ve already faced knockout footy of sorts this year – their match with the Dolphins last weekend was a winner-take-all clash for 8th place on the ladder, and Newcastle got the job done with a 14-6 win.
North Queensland Cowboys team news
Jordan McLean is back for the home team after missing last weekend with a hamstring injury. Jake Clifford has retained his place in the halves at the expense of Chad Townsend. Kyle Feldt and Valentine Holmes will play their final home match for North Queensland, too, regardless of whether they win or lose.
Newcastle Knights team news
The Knights suffered a blow late in the week with Bradman Best suffering a hamstring injury. His absence means Dylan Lucas will move into the centres, and there’s a welcome return for Englishman Kai Pearce-Paul in the second row.
Our prediction – North Queensland Cowboys 30-18 Newcastle Knights
I just can’t see past the Cowboys in this one, especially at home. They’ve been building nicely into the finals and just have more strike weapons across the park than Newcastle. The Knights won’t go down without a fight, and in Kalyn Ponga, they have a player who’ll create something out of nothing, but I can’t see them having enough to get the job done.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday 15th September
How they got here
The Bulldogs have arguably been the story of the season in 2024, having gone from 15th last year to 6th this time around. They finished the regular season with back-to-back defeats though, including a 6-44 thrashing from the Cowboys last weekend.
Manly’s turnaround from 2023 has been impressive in its own right, too. They finished a disappointing 12th last year, but they’ve been inside the top eight for most of the campaign, and sealed their spot with games to spare. They wrapped up the regular season with a 20-40 loss at home to the Sharks in round 27.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs team news
The big news for the Bulldogs is the loss of winger Josh Addo-Carr, who stood himself down for this weekend after he tested positive for cocaine earlier this week. In better news for the Dogs, Matt Burton is back this weekend following a concussion, while Bronson Xerri and Jeral Skelton are also back in the side after missing last weekend’s game.
Manly Sea Eagles team news
In a huge boost for Manly, superstar full-back Tom Trbojevic returns. Winger Jason Saab is still at least a week away from returning, while Luke Brooks will play the first finals game of his career after 229 NRL appearances without one.
Our prediction – Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 14-12 Manly Sea Eagles
I can see this game being the closest of all four this weekend. The Bulldogs’ defence has been a major factor in their improvement this year, and they’ve conceded 88 points fewer than Manly. On the other hand, the Sea Eagles’ attack has been more potent, and they’ve scored 105 more points. As far as the ladder goes, only one point separated these two in 2024, so this one is anyone’s game, and could come down to a moment of magic from one individual.
